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October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition


Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Here comes the month of mellow mists and fruitfulness ... and your C.E.T. predictions

     

    October CET averages and trivia20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 198520.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 201113.3 ... warmest month 200113.1 ... second warmest month 200513.0 ... third warmest months, 1969 and 200612.7 ... 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 183112.3 ... tied 12th and warnest of 18th century 173110.9 ... mean 2001-201210.7 ... mean 1981-201010.6 ... mean 1961-199010.3 ... mean 1971-200010.2 ... mean 1901-20009.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2012, also 20129.5 .... mean 1801-19009.4 .... mean 1701-18009.3 .... mean 1659-17007.8 .... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 19927.5 .... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 19056.5 .... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 16926.4 .... second coldest 18175.3 .... coldest 17400.3 .... coldest day (since 1772, guessing some subzero days in 1740) 29th, 1895 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Winter=Gloomy Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: Winter=Gloomy Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

    10.8 please :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

    Hi guys

     

    Forget my place holder in the Sept thread

    I will go a bit lower at 10.1C due to the recent changes to FI.

     

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: .Hackenthorpe south east Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: winter.
  • Location: .Hackenthorpe south east Sheffield

    will go for 7.8

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    Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

    10.2 for me please :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I think it will be cool and unsettled but when I have gone against my method before I have been burned.

    10.7C, bang on average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Here's a graph of the October CET (blue), the 10 year average (red) and the linear trend (black).

     

    Posted Image

     

    A CET this October of anything less more than 10.3C will produce the highest 10 year mean on record (>11.17C).

     

    The correlation between the September CET and October CET is lower than the average monthly correlations, at 0.26. It is still statistically significant, and indicates that cool Septembers are usually followed by cool Octobers, and warm by warm, but the relationship is not as strong as most other months.

     

    September looks like finishing in the 13.5-14.3C range at the moment, and over the record, the average October following such Septembers is 10.1C, so below most recent averages. This includes a low of 5.3C in 1740 (lowest on record) and 13.0C in 1969 (joint 3rd highest on record).

     

    As of 2012, we're currently on the

    longest run of years, 20, without a sub 9C CET. (previous record was 15 years, from 1853-1867)

    longest run of years, 69, with the 10 year mean above 10C (previous record was 10 years, from 1830-1839)

    longest run of years, 8, with the 10 year mean above 11C. (previous record was 1 year, in 1972)

     

    So it seems we're well overdue a run of cold Octobers.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I wonder if there's any correlation between solar activity and October CET?

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    14C

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Not worth showing your hand until last minute, better to wait for the 18z GFS on the 31st, + better to go for something no one else or few go for (within reason obviously) so you don't 'share the prize'

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    10.4c..... 0.3 below average..... I'm looking at a cool october with HP staying in place (or there or there abouts) to the northwest of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    I'll go with 12.0C for now, as per my Autumn forecast. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Would love to know what synoptics caused such a low mean in 1740 - indeed 1740 saw a record cold winter... was there a major volcanic eruption which affected things that year??????????

     

    Another startling statistic is the incidence of seeing 3 Octobers in 1st, 2nd and 3rd warmest place in the space of just 5 years i.e. 2001-2006 - quite unprecedented.

     

    Inded we saw a number of very mild Octobers during the 00's, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.

    2007 was preety mild from memory. 2004 about average. 2003 and 2008 were quite chilly though.

     

    Its been a long time since we have experienced an appreciably below average October, 1992 was the last one. Perhaps Oct 2013 will do a March 2013 on us - and end a barren period for cold Octobers, just like we ended a long period without a very cold March.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    Would love to know what synoptics caused such a low mean in 1740 - indeed 1740 saw a record cold winter... was there a major volcanic eruption which affected things that year??????????

     

    Another startling statistic is the incidence of seeing 3 Octobers in 1st, 2nd and 3rd warmest place in the space of just 5 years i.e. 2001-2006 - quite unprecedented.

     

    Inded we saw a number of very mild Octobers during the 00's, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.

    2007 was preety mild from memory. 2004 about average. 2003 and 2008 were quite chilly though.

     

    Its been a long time since we have experienced an appreciably below average October, 1992 was the last one. Perhaps Oct 2013 will do a March 2013 on us - and end a barren period for cold Octobers, just like we ended a long period without a very cold March.

    What a strange year regarding temperatures 1740 was, after the bone chilling start September was rather mild with a cet of 14.0 only to followed with an October cet of 5.3.As you say DM the synoptic charts for that year would be fascinating.

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