October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[Thundery wintry showers]

My 12.2 is currently looking a bit on the low side but not too bad. 

I've got quite lucky with my guess though as I predicted generally warm weather in the first two-thirds of October and a cool last third- whereas in reality the cooler weather set in ten days earlier than I expected but has been cancelled out by the warm finish.

[cheese]

And why exactly does this 0.1C increase make you happy? I don't know how people can like such mild weather. It normally comes with permanent cloudcover, these same people complain when it's constantly cloudy in Summer. I just don't get it.For me though I don't mind the cloudcover, it's the mildness that is rubbish.

I guess some people like mild weather so much, they will tolerate relentless cloud and rain. I guess it's similar to how us coldies will tolerate cloud if it means lots of snow. However, I will not tolerate relentless cloud and cold with temps between 0-2C both day and night, with no snow at all, just because it's cold. That's madness to me.

 

This October has been a real drag - lack of refreshingly cool mornings, lack of sunshine, lots of rain during the latter half of the month, which annoyed me a lot. If it was sunny and drier, I'd like it, and even though I usually like rain, it has annoyed me quite a bit this month. The worst month of the year by far in my opinion.

 

Just give me something interesting and I'll be alright. I will tolerate a mild winter if it's stormy and wild. Would vastly prefer snow though.

Edited October 28, 2013 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 27th

 

someone can't count as they have it 2.3c above average instead it should be 2.1c above average

Edited October 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[reef]

13.1c to the 27th

 

someone can't count as they have it 2.3c above average instead it should be 2.1c above average

 

Its a rolling average so it isnt the same for each day in the month. As October is a cooling month the rolling mean will reduce rapidly from start to end.

[Summer Sun]

Its a rolling average so it isnt the same for each day in the month. As October is a cooling month the rolling mean will reduce rapidly from start to end.

 

Yeah but yesterday the CET was 13.2c to the 26th and 2.2 above average

 

Today its 13.1c to the 27th so it can't be 2.3c above average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yeah but yesterday the CET was 13.2c to the 26th and 2.2 above average

 

Today its 13.1c to the 27th so it can't be 2.3c above average

 

This table might help

 

...Date ........ 61-90 Rolling Average ..... 2013 Rolling Average...... Difference

25/10/13................10.977.................................13.136.........................+2.159 (2.2C)

26/10/13................10.929.................................13.173.........................+2.244 (2.2C)

27/10.13................10.877.................................13.133.........................+2.256 (2.3C)

 

Basically, the fall in the long term rolling average was slightly larger than the fall in the 2013 rolling average, which allowed the gap between the two to increase from 2.2C to 2.3C, despite a drop in this months CET.

Edited October 28, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 28th

 

2.2c above average

 

2nd warmest month of the year currently July was 2.3c above average

 

Edited October 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum of 7.0C and maxima likely to be around the mid 11s, we should see a drop to 12.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

12.8C to the 30th (9.0)

12.7C to the 31st (10.8]

 

So 12.6 to 12.8C before corrections, and 12.1 to 12.7C after methinks.

 

Just 8 members in with a chance as far as I can see.

[godber]

way off the mark this month, with my guess of 9.6c.

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 29th

 

2.2c above average

 

Guaranteed now to be the 2nd warmest month of the year so far

[SomeLikeItHot]

12.9c to the 29th 2.2c above average Guaranteed now to be the 2nd warmest month of the year so far

 Min today 3.6 (lowest since mid may) and max likely around 13.0 should see a fall to 12.8 tomorrow. So Met forecasts take it to . 30th 12.8 (8.3)31st 12.7 (10.8 ) + 2.1 anomalySo 12.3 - 12.7 seems a likely final range after corrections. Edited October 30, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

12.8c to the 30th

 

2.1c above average

[SomeLikeItHot]

12.8c to the 30th 2.1c above average

Min today of 6.5 and max likley around 13.0 again, should end the month on 12.7 (12.67) - max would need to be less than 12.0 to hit 12.6.So after corrections we are looking at 12.2-12.6.

[BornFromTheVoid]

That was quick, confirmed as 12.5C (-0.15C correction), joint 10th warmest on record. Congrats to Polar Gael!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

[SomeLikeItHot]

Final figure is 12.5

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

pre corrections it was 12.7 so a -0.2 correction (or really as BFTV says above -1.5)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

Edited November 1, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

Well the Ensemble mean tracked it pretty accurately this month (unlike Sept) from mid month they were saying 12.6-12.7 which was basically right on pre-corrections.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like we equalled the record warmest day for October 15th, at 14.0C. The whole month only saw 2 days below the average of the entire series, the 10th (8.4C) and 11th (9.9C).

 

 

We now need November to finish on 8.2C to reach the top 10 (joint 7th) warmest Autumn on record and 8.5C for joint 5th warmest. The 06z GFS would have us in the high 9s by the 8th, so a very mild November certainly can't be ruled out.

[Summer Sun]

October confirmed on the home page now 12.5c which is 1.9c above average

 

4th successive above average month

Edited November 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[J10]

12.5c confirmed as the October figure. This caused most people out, with only Polar Gael getting it spot on.

 

Harve and AtlanticFlamethrower were both 0.1c out.

 

In the seasonal comp, a new leader with Polar Gael taking the lead from Weather History.

 

Overall though Weather History takes the lead from March Blizzard who drops to 3rd, Mulzy stays in 2nd, It seems that the overall comp is between these 3.

 

Scores as usual

 

oCt 2013 CET.xls

 

oCt 2013 CET.pdf

Edited November 2, 2013 by J10

[summer blizzard]

51st in the monthly, horrible.

 

20th in the seasonal, meh.

 

7th in the annual, realistically i'm fighting with Seabreeze and Rybris for 5th.

[Polar Gael]

Blimus! Well chuffed - by the law of averages, had to guess correctly one of these months, I suppose! Thanks to all for their work on the C.E.T. threads - much appreciated.