October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[Relativistic]

Can't believe the panicking already!

I know, it's mad! How anyone has any clear picture of what will happen beyond day 7 is beyond me.

[matty007]

12.2

[swfc]

I'll go 11 please !

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.9 to the 1st although it hasn't updated on the front page, just the daily list.

[SomeLikeItHot]

So with 13.9 for today, and a min of 12.7 Max is likely to be 18.5. should see a decent rise tomorrow.

Met forecasts for 5 days then GFS 0z ensemble afterwards gives.

2nd 14.8 (15.6)

3rd 15.3 (16.4)

4th 15.7 (16.8 ) (+3.5 degree anomoly)

5th 15.5 (14.5)

6th 15.1 (13.3)

There after the GFS ensemble mean has a slightly more seasonal set of temperatures, but still slightly above average.

Falling to

10th 14.1

13th 13.4

17th 12.7 - which would still be a +1.24 anomoly.

Edited October 2, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Don]

Thinking I should have gone higher.  At the moment it could end up 12.5C +.  Never mind, plenty of time yet and we could get a substantial cool down later in the month. 

[Summer Sun]

1.6c above average at the moment

 

I only went for 11.1c this month I could be miles out again but this time too low instead of too high

 

Somewhere between 12 and 12.6 may have been a better estimate

[March Blizzard]

1.6c above average at the momentI only went for 11.1c this month I could be miles out again but this time too low instead of too highSomewhere between 12 and 12.6 may have been a better estimate

Nobody knows exactly what will happen, especially in the latter stages of the month. October is obviously a cooling month so you can't rule out a northerly steaming through at some point, dropping the CET like a stone. Even average October temps will drop the CET from this warm start.

[SomeLikeItHot]

A few points, my estimate above to the 17th of 12.7 is probably 12.7 +/- 1.5. at around a 90% confidence I would estimate.

Secondly if 12.7 is right then if the end of month averaged at the 61-90 average we would end up at 11.3, if it was 1 degree cooler than in the last fortnight which is entirely possible then it would be 10.8.

Obviously with a warm start then its better to be placed on the warm side, but anything +10.0 is very acheivable given the forecasts we have only go to mid month and are only really reliable for <7 days.

Also some trivia:

October 1962, first 16 days averaged almost 12 for the month to finish at 10.4 - it being the only month in the 12 months from March 62 - Feb 63 to finish above the 20C average temperature.

Edited October 2, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Relativistic]

It's impossible to know for sure, but even at this stage I think I'm too low (went for 9.5C).

[SomeLikeItHot]

14.6 to the 2nd

 

A bit lower than forecast min today of 13.3 and forecast max around 18.5,

 

Taking met forecasts for 5 days and gfs 0z ensemble after that gives.

 

3rd 15.1 (15.9)

4th 15.5 (16.8 ) +3.3 anomoly

5th 15.3 (14.7)

6th 15.0 (13.6)

7th 15.1 (15.5)

8th 15.0 (14.5) +2.8 anomoly

9th 14.7 (12.5)

10th 14.4 (12.0)

 

15th  13.3   +1.7 anomoly

 

18th  12.8   +1.5 anomoly.

 

High over night temps driving a high CET for the 4th, seems to be moderating to just slightly above average temps by the 9th or 10th still, but its going to take a cold end to the month to drag us back near average.  

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 13.3C, while maxima look like reaching over 19C (according to GFS), so an increase to around 15.2C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at

15.6C to the 4th (16.8]

15.5C to the 5th (15.0)

15.3C to the 6th (14.1)

15.2C to the 7th (14.8]

15.1C to the 8th (14.7)

15.2C to the 9th (15.3)

14.8C to the 10th (11.7)

 

A CET of 15.2C to the 7th, will give us the joint 5th warmest first week of October on record.

The 14.8C to the 10th, would give us the joint 4th warmest first 10 days (nothing compared to 1921 though, which averaged 16.5C for the first 10 days!)

[SomeLikeItHot]

It's impossible to know for sure, but even at this stage I think I'm too low (went for 9.5C).

The period after the 10th would likely have average near 7 to get that sort of value. Its happenned before eg 1981, so its not impossible. Just rare.

[Scorcher]

Got a feeling we might do better than 14.8C to the 10th. That daily CET projection of 11.7C for the 10th seems very cool looking at the charts- I guess it must be based on the idea of a cooler night happening but still it seems a bit extreme when compared to the other days. 

[SomeLikeItHot]

 

 

A CET of 15.2C to the 7th, will give us the joint 5th warmest first week of October on record.

The 14.8C to the 10th, would give us the joint 4th warmest first 10 days (nothing compared to 1921 though, which averaged 16.5C for the first 10 days!)

 

Looks like the biggest anomoly is going to be the minimum temperatures for this period, which are currently +3.9 and about to go higher.

[Scorcher]

The period after the 10th would likely have average near 7 to get that sort of value. Its happenned before eg 1981, so its not impossible. Just rare.

 

And probably rarer after such a warm start to the month. I can't recall too many big October turnarounds in my lifetime- 2001, 2005, 2011 for example all started warm and continued warm right up to the end of the month (although obviously 2011 couldn't keep up the exceptional heat at the start of the month!).

[london-snow]

12.9c

 

Took the liberty of moving this, L-S...

Edited October 3, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[summer blizzard]

And probably rarer after such a warm start to the month. I can't recall too many big October turnarounds in my lifetime- 2001, 2005, 2011 for example all started warm and continued warm right up to the end of the month (although obviously 2011 couldn't keep up the exceptional heat at the start of the month!).

 

The first week of October 2005 was actually below the rolling average.

[Scorcher]

The first week of October 2005 was actually below the rolling average.

 

Yes I do recall that now, thanks for pointing it out.

[summer blizzard]

Yes I do recall that now, thanks for pointing it out.

Funny Autumn was 2005, a nice September followed by a cool shot before exceptional mildness and then a stunningly cold, sunny and dry final two thirds to November.

[Weather-history]

Funny Autumn was 2005, a nice September followed by a cool shot before exceptional mildness and then a stunningly cold, sunny and dry final two thirds to November.

Forecasts from September 2005http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2apdyt_Xeh0XZxSkb8Rk8o-ROctober 2005http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqJ5mEi2-iwIMvb345Pr_jKNovember 2005http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2arg-FqItBis1sdWiGhqrVvn

[Scorcher]

I remember thinking in the first week of September 2005 that we might be heading for the warmest on record given how things were shaping up. It didn't quite turn out that warm but a fine month nonetheless. We broke the record a year later in 2006. 

[SomeLikeItHot]

15.1 to the 3rd (based on the daily list, front page hasn't updated yet)

 

With min of 15.7 over night and max near 19 today another jump to 15.6 tomorrow.

 

Worth noting that the average min for the first 4 days of september is 0.4 higher than what we averaged in July and a +4.6 degree anomoly.  

 

By contrast the maximums while high are only a +2 anomoly.

 

Anyway Met office forecast to 5 days then the GFS ensemble mean gives.

 

4th 15.6 (17.4)  +3.4 anomoly

5th 15.5 (14.8 )

6th 15.2 (14.1)

7th 15.3 (15.8 )

8th 15.3 (15.2)  +3.1 anomoly

 

temps then falling somewhat in the ensembles, but daily temps are still up to a degree above average for most of the run. This then gives:

 

10th 14.9

 

15th 13.7

 

19th 13.3   +1.9 anomoly

 

Average temps from that point to end of month would end on something around 11.6.

[Summer Sun]

15.1c on the homepage now

 

2.9c above average

Edited October 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the minimum of 15.7C, and maxima likely to reach over 19C (GFS), we should see an increase to about 15.7C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.7C to the 5th (15.5)

15.4C to the 6th (13.8]

15.4C to the 7th (15.6)

15.4C to the 8th (15.8]

15.2C to the 9th (13.7)

15.0C to the 10th (13.0)

15.0C to the 11th (14.4)

 

The daily record for October 4th is 17.7C in 1959. So a maximum today of greater than 19.5C means we'd equal the record.

No other daily records seem under threat at the moment, as 1921 had no day lower than 16.9C between the 4th and 11th.

 

15.4C after 1 week would give the joint 4th warmest first week recorded, while 15.0C to the 10th would give the 4th warmest first 10 days.

 

Of the years that were above 14.5C after the first 10 days, this is how they finished.

 

Year... First 10 Days....Oct CET

1921........16.5C ............12.8C

1959........16.0C.............12.6C

2011........15.4C.............12.6C

1949........14.8C.............11.7C

1908........14.8C.............11.8C

1825........14.8C.............10.8C

1995........14.7C.............12.9C

................AVERAGE ......12.2C