Tropical Storm Jerry

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Is up, running and apparently going nowhere, big clockwise loop forecast for the next few days

 

Not forecasting any winds higher than 45 knots in the next 5 days

000WTNT41 KNHC 290233TCDAT1TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL1120131100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013THE WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HASDEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS ATROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE ELEVENTH ONE OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANESEASON. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON EARLIERSCATTEROMETER DATA.THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT ON THE WEST SIDE OFA DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKENSOON AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CAUSINGTHE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD LATESUNDAY. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABSORB OR PICK UP THEDEPRESSION...INSTEAD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWINGTHE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR AT LEASTA FEW DAYS. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON THE STEERING FLOWWILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THEDEPRESSION AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE NHC FORECASTSHOWS THE SYSTEM MAKING A CLOCKWISE LOOP AND LIES CLOSE TO THEDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OFSOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS DISPLACED MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATEDCONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TOLESSEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSIONSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...AN INCREASE INNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO END THESTRENGTHENING TREND AND LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC WINDSPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORTTERM AND THEN LIES ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THEANTICIPATED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

[Coast]

Lost, totally lost!!!

 

Tropical Depression AL11: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 9 hours lead

 

Tropical Depression AL11: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead

[Somerset Squall]

What a bizarre track LOL. Shear will be a big player in this one it seems, as already mentioned, NHC are not expecting anything more than a moderate tropical storm. It seems the track is down to a trough-ridge-trough pattern, 11L is not forecast to be picked up by the first trough, but should be when the second one comes through, pulling 11L finally to the northeast. By this stage, 11L is forecast to have weakened back to a tropical depression.

[Cookie]

Defiantly drunken system! 

[Somerset Squall]

11L is still a tropical depression this morning. Whilst there is a large convective blow up this morning, convection has not been persistant and has waxed and waned through it's lifetime so far. The depression is travelling east as a trough passes by to the northwest. As the trough moves away, and brief ridge is forecast to strengthen to the north of 11L, looping the depression back to the west. A second trough is then expected to move to the northwest, and this trough is expected to capture 11L and send it northeastwards. Shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels over the next day or so, but this shouldn't be enough to stop 11L from becoming a sheared tropical storm.

[Coast]

11 has just become Tropical Storm Jerry:

 

Tropical Depression Eleven strengthened into Tropical Storm Jerry late Monday morning in the central Atlantic Ocean. Little change in strength is expected into midweek as Jerry meanders in the central Atlantic well away from land. By late in the week, Jerry should eventually turn northeastward and accelerate. Jerry, the tenth named storm of the season, is no threat to the United States or any other land areas.

 

 

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-depression-11-storm-hurricane-jerry-20130917

 

Tropical Storm Jerry, 11 a.m. Monday advisory

 

OUTLOOK: Tropical Storm Jerry formed in the central Atlantic this morning and poses no threat to the U.S. coastline or the Caribbean. The system is projected to meander for a few days and then aim northeast without growing into a hurricane. Meanwhile, a disturbance in the Caribbean is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could curve toward Florida later this week or aim toward the North Gulf Coast. For now it is being given a low chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. For now the Caribbean disturbance has increased the chance of rain in South and Central Florida as of Wednesday and into the weekend. Depending on how close the system gets to the state, it could produce heavy rains.

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/storm-center-blog/sfl-tropics-monday-20130928,0,2405048.story

[Somerset Squall]

Jerry has strengthened to 45kts overnight. The storm developed banding features, and though convection was quite shallow, Jerry's structure was certainly improved from earlier. Since, the convection has decreased further, and Jerry looks quite dishevelled this morning. Dry air and shear continue to be a problem, and this should not allow much more intensification, if any, unless the upper level low moves away. Jerry has slowed considerably overnight, and should reverse course to a westward track through today, then curve northeast in a couple days ahead of a trough.

[Coast]

Jerry is currently 'meandering'! 

 

Tropical Storm Jerry meanders; Caribbean disturbance brews

 

OUTLOOK: After emerging in the central Atlantic on Monday morning, Jerry is projected to meander over the next several days without growing into a hurricane. It poses no threat to the U.S. coastline or the Caribbean.

 

Tropical Storm Jerry is projected to meander in the Atlantic. A disturbance south of Jamaica could bring rain to Florida by midweek.

 

PARTICULARS: Jerry is the 10th named system of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. On average, the 10th storm arrives on Oct. 19.

 

LOCATION: 1,300 miles east of Bermuda

 

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/storm-center-blog/sfl-tropics-monday-20130928,0,2405048.story

[Coast]

Jerry has now come to a full stop!

 

Stationary Tropical Storm Jerry weakens; Caribbean disturbance

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/storm-center-blog/sfl-tropics-monday-20130928-003,0,1384835.photo

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Jerry has remained practically motionless all day as steering currents have collapsed. Instead of moving west, Jerry has stalled and appears to be awaiting the second trough to pick it up and send it northeastwards. Shear and dry air continue to negatively affect Jerry, causing the storm to weaken to 40kts. Convection is pretty shallow, and not all that well organised. Shear and dry air is set to continue to dampen any strengthening over the next few days, until shear rises yet further as Jerry approaches the Azores, causing a more definite weakening trend.

[Coast]

Like US Government departments, Jerry is doing very little at the moment:

 

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tuesday that the storm was centered about 1,300 miles (2,095 kilometers) east of Bermuda and was nearly stationary. Jerry had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and little change in strength is forecast for the next two days.

 

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/tropical-storm-jerry-stalls-atlantic-20437372