South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 30/09/13 ------------>

[HammerJack]

Evening all. Had a really nice afternoon here, once the cloud had broken. Didn't feel to warm to me today, as it was still breezy, and I now have man flu (okay a mild cold😉)

As I said yesterday, I took my children to collect conkers yesterday afternoon... We amassed quite a few in the end to their delight😄

Edited September 30, 2013 by LeighD

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening all

Another bright and breezy day here, looks like one more tomorrow before the Atlantic breaks down the door, for about a day before high pressure builds back in.

Given the ECM my rather high October CET prediction of 12C (2.3C above average) looks to be rather low 

[Mark Neal.]

Fresh and Sunny morning. Cloudier but humid afternoon, some drops of rain aswell. Wind as dropped now though!

[Anvils in the Sky]

Not SE/EA related, I know, but I'll post this in the webcams thread too.

Just been watching the webcam on the International Space Station as it passed over equatorial Africa. And you can see the lightning flashing away from 250 miles up. Amazing - if intermittently active - webcam.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-iss-stream

[Tom Quintavalle]

Spent late morning and afternoon in C.London and it felt pretty humid and uncomfortable, must say.

 

Nice to get back to the sticks and some cooler air,this evening.

 

A little rain likely on Thurs, as fronts finally push through our region but then a rinse and repeat situation, as high pressure builds in from the SW.

 

Thereafter high pressure transfers to our east, early next week.  With similar synoptics to this week, another spell of winds from a southerly point look to be on the cards, with temps likely to be a fair way above normal, well into the 2nd week of October, if the models have called the pattern correctly.

 

KCZ

[Jason T]

Hello Folks, Lovely warm day today surprisingly. Rest of the week not looking brill but still weekend looking good. Had a slight accident at the weekend, Lets just say a zip and a banjo string, The zip won........ OMG, The pain,The Blood....AND Boy does it sting. Been to docs and no cough,cough for 4 to 6 weeks. First rule of going lav when Drunk,Take your time. Anyway onwards and upwards Pardon the pun.

[Jan_Bromley]

OMG Jason, that sounds horrific!! I hope you feel better soon

[Jan_Bromley]

Good evening,

 

Having clouded over early afternoon, it soon cleared again to lovely warm sunshine.

 

We seem to be in for a bit of an Indian Summer next week, which will be wonderful (Still got some Tomatoes to ripen)

[Jason T]

OMG Jason, that sounds horrific!! I hope you feel better soon

 

 

Thankyou Jan. My pride hurts the most lol. I should have added the taxi driver can sodding well wait. Roll on mid November.

[john pike]

tomorrow

 

a light but still breezy south to south east flow

 

rain

 

looks mainly dry but a chance of the odd light shower to the west of our region

 

cloudy more likely southern areas

 

the rest more sunny intervals

 

watch for mist again in the morning

 

temps around 14-16 degrees

 

 

tuesday night

 

dry and windy

 

temps not cold

 

 

wednesday

 

a breezy and noticeable south to south east flow

 

staying dry to around 2pm onwards then rain incoming from the west

 

will be slow moving and a chance it could miss the far east of the region completely

 

temps

 

around 16-18 degrees

 

should see a fair amount of sun before the rain moves in

 

 

thursday

 

temps

 

somewhere around 22-23 degrees

 

a shade lower tod area

 

still quite a gusty south to south east flow

 

heres the tricky bit

 

on the fax chart look to our south and south west

 

now rainfall showing here

 

quite clearly shows where the very heavy rain is

 

it may go straight to france (no surprise there then)

 

or may head further north and give us torrential rain and storms

 

will wait until tomorrow to confirm this better hopefully

 

hope your all good

 

john

 

back later with the rest

[Jason T]

Right of to bed now, As scientist state men think about (cough) every 5 secs, Do you know how many times I have had to think about Margaret Thatcher  ,Still i guess it does the job,Thanks margaret you're an angel.Better make sure I don't call the wife Margaret when it's over otherwise i will be an angel . Good Night all.

[john pike]

goodnight jason

 

i could say i wish i was a FLY on the wall when it happened

 

you can then say

 

ZIP it shrimpy

[HammerJack]

Right of to bed now, As scientist state men think about (cough) every 5 secs, Do you know how many times I have had to think about Margaret Thatcher ,Still i guess it does the job,Thanks margaret you're an angel.Better make sure I don't call the wife Margaret when it's over otherwise i will be an angel . Good Night all.

Your story is going to give me nightmares tonight 😵. It actually made me flinch reading it. Hope the old boy is better soon 👼

[john pike]

Evening all

Another bright and breezy day here, looks like one more tomorrow before the Atlantic breaks down the door, for about a day before high pressure builds back in.

Given the ECM my rather high October CET prediction of 12C (2.3C above average) looks to be rather low 

 

Evening all

Another bright and breezy day here, looks like one more tomorrow before the Atlantic breaks down the door, for about a day before high pressure builds back in.

Given the ECM my rather high October CET prediction of 12C (2.3C above average) looks to be rather low 

 

hi mate

 

i think the mod thread are being a tad generous with the temps next week

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=325&y=98&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

also the set up would start getting some pretty chilly nights coming in as well

 

i would have gone for around 10

 

please note i have been wrong quite a few times in the past

[john pike]

update is a bit earlier

 

going by these at present thursday shows the afternoon being v heavy rain and poss stormy

 

still need more on this though

 

friday

 

a south west flow but not too strong

 

looks dry but possibly some late afternoon showers

 

temps

 

 

around 16 degrees

 

 

saturday

 

looks dry

 

a weak south easterly flow

 

temps

 

 

 

temps around 14-16

 

 

expect saturday night to be quite chilly

 

assuming these are right

[john pike]

nao looks to be going slightly positive or neutral

 

now this is what the pattern looks like if it stays positive

 

 

would normally let the atlantic come steaming in

 

cold lovers nightmare in winter

 

not too bad if you want to see a pattern change now

 

this is what it looks like when negative

 

 

equals cold and easterly flow

 

with jet going south

 

 

 

still reckon this effect more likely 2 weeks away roughly

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/nao.html

 

 

 

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

look warmish

 

probably safe to go to the 5th the fi

 

problem i have with these are the control runs are right at the top of the ensembles

 

note after the 9th some fairly chilly ensemble nights showing

 

wind

 

breezy but no storms showing on there

 

 

rainfall

 

these ensembles are all over the shop

 

think i will stick with the fax and ukmo for now

 

 

gfs ensemble 12z

 

warmish to the 3rd

then very wet

 

average on the 5th then warm again

 

7th here is fi as again big spread

 

one thing i like still

 

have not used my central heating yet which is saving a fortune

 

so boring weather has its advantages

[john pike]

CET: (Sep 1-30): 13.8°C (-0.3 degC) E&W Rain: (Sep 1-30): 60.7mm ( 79 per cent) E&W Sun: (Sep 1-30): 134.1hr ( 91 per cent)   © Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknow

 

according to these we keep the minus trend again

http://www.climate-uk.com/

[Coast]

Pinch and a punch, first of the month and bagsy no returns! 

[Biggin]

Any SSW predicted this winter ?? Last winters certainly had an effect. Even if it turned up a lot later than originally predicted....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Pinch and a punch, first of the month and bagsy no returns! 

 

Flick and a kick for being to quick!

[Captain Shortwave]

Pinch and a punch, first of the month and bagsy no returns! 

I was wondering why I had a pain in my arm this morning 

Sunny again this morning

Edited October 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Coast]

Just to extend this, bringing it across from the old thread for those that are feeling reckless. Remember no prizes, just the doubtless satisfaction of being closest:

 

What date will the first visible snow fall to the ground and give at least a light dusting in our region and where do you think that will be?

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

 

Happy first day of October....today is much the same as yesterday weather wise but not so busy work wise 

 

 

 

 

A few of you have asked me about a pre Christmas regional meet up again this year..... I'm happy to organise something in Milton Keynes  (or if someone would like to take the job on you're more than welcome to organise it in your home town)  

 

I've set a provisional date of 23rd of November and will be sending those of you who came last year a PM soon but if anyone else is interested please let me know asap and I will add you to the mailing list - hopefully we can get something sorted and booked up soon !

 

[Mesoscale]

 

Just to extend this, bringing it across from the old thread for those that are feeling reckless. Remember no prizes, just the doubtless satisfaction of being closest:

 

What date will the first visible snow fall to the ground and give at least a light dusting in our region and where do you think that will be?

 

For the southeast I reckon the first snow will fall over the chilterns in early December from a Northerly! 

Edit: the actual date I think will be the 6th/7th December.

Edited October 1, 2013 by Mesoscale

[NO LONGER POSTING]

For the southeast I reckon the first snow will fall over the chilterns in early December from a Northerly! Edit: the actual date I think will be the 6th/7th December.

 

I think this year is actually going to be pretty "warm" for the time of year Nov and Dec being pretty warm too with a few brief cold blips before winter really kicks in Jan and feb so I would go for snow around 9-10th of Jan