South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 30/09/13 ------------>

[Coast]

After the cloudy start, the dry continental air is starting to push back, the sun has returned here

 

and then this comes in from the Atlantic later......

 

[hernebaylooby]

Afternoon all, how are we? Not too thrilled about the rain coming as its bound to come as soon as I leave my house! But hey ho it is autumn after all and I cant really complaib after that dry summer.

[Coast]

Afternoon all, how are we?

 

'Ello Looby, just preparing for tomorrow:

 

[Methuselah]

Sun's back here too...Am eagerly anticipating something a tad more 'hideous' for tomorrow! 

[Coast]

Am eagerly anticipating something a tad more 'hideous' for tomorrow! 

 

The East of our region might be OK now looking at some of the latest output. NMM:

 

 

But down on the South coast, it still looks wet. GFS:

 

[Heisenberg]

Hi all

 

Well this morning was murky as per pic of the Shard on my walk to work....and this afternoon has turned out to be....well, murky....

 

Tomorrow is looking lovely, sunny and warm,

 

 

In spain....not so much here though

Edited October 2, 2013 by lloydyd

[RUSH]

afternoon alll

 

bugger this means ive got fix the leak in the roof gutted ,i got away with out doing it over weekend ,better do it now,ahhwellllllll

[snow raven]

Sun is breaking through here at work (London South Bank) - might not be too bad an evening before the rain arrives?

[dwalton]

It's looking to me we are going to miss quite a bit of the action tomorrow. Only the far West of the region catching something ' torrential ' again the low to our South West has been forcast too far East

[Coast]

It's looking to me we are going to miss quite a bit of the action tomorrow. Only the far West of the region catching something ' torrential ' again the low to our South West has been forcast too far East

 

As just posted by Liam Dutton in his blog, that may be the case for us:

 

Warnings issued as heavy rain brings flood risk

 

Following a fine and warm weekend for most of us, the weather has turned more unsettled this week, with the prospect of some intense rain in the next 48 hours. The jet stream has dipped southwards just to west of the UK and is drawing up a plume of warmth and humidity ahead of it. As a result, a south to south easterly wind is going to deliver batches of heavy, thundery rain to most places during Thursday and Friday, with a risk of localised flooding. In these kinds of situations, it is always difficult to pinpoint which locations will see the greatest amounts of rainfall, but the weather computer models are now gaining consensus that western areas will see the wettest weather.

 

Low pressure’s influence

 

At the moment, there is an area of high pressure to the east of the UK and low pressure to the west. Given the way that the wind flows around each, this set up acts as a conveyor belt for very moist air to be pushed over us. However, as low pressure inches ever closer, this allows moist air to rise more readily and form clouds, giving rain. As well as this, there are two other factors that will help to concentrate the heaviest rainfall in particular areas – convergence of winds and orographic enhancement.

 

Convergence of winds

 

When the wind blows, its direction can be subtly influenced by the surface over which it flows. As the sea is smooth and generally uniform, the wind encounters negligible friction and flows freely. So, a southerly wind will continue to be a southerly wind. However, when the wind flows over land it encounters friction. This not only slows it down a little, but alters its direction – causing it to back. Therefore, what was a southerly wind over the sea can become more of a south easterly wind over the land. It’s the clashing (convergence) of these winds from different directions that enhances the rate at which air rises, resulting in more moisture in the clouds and thus greater amounts of rainfall – something that will happen in western areas during Thursday.

 

Orographic enhancement

 

A brisk southerly wind will mean that the very moist air travelling northwards across the UK will encounter hills and mountains. This will cause the moist air to be lifted even higher up in the atmosphere than would be the case if it was moving over flat terrain. The result will be for clouds containing greater amounts of moisture to form over the hills and mountains in the west, enhancing the intensity of the rain that falls – a process known as orographic enhancement.

 

How much rain is expected?

 

Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and the western side of England could see 20-30mm falling widely in the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, only 5-15mm of rain is expected. The worst affected areas – Cumbria, eastern parts of Northern Ireland, western Scotland and the mountains of south Wales – could see 50-80mm. Weather warnings have been issued by the Met Office, with localised flooding highlighted as a potential hazard.

 

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/warnings-issued-heavy-rain-brings-flood-risk/5030#sthash.yU8oqjVs.dpuf

[Jax]

Afternoon all

 

 

I did notice this morning that the worst of the weather seems much further west now.

 

Well after an early rise (was woken up by the rain hammering against the bedroom windows in the early hours this morning), it has remained a dull day, less wind than of late mind and whilst it is warm it does not feel like it.

[Captain Shortwave]

It's raining

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1Y73sPHKxw

[Jax]

Just been out and it may be mild but it does not feel quite as such.

 

 

Oh, anyone seen this?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-24365367

[HammerJack]

Evening guys. Gloomy all day here today, and after the early morning deluge it's stayed dry all day . Just popped out to the shops and it feels quite muggy. A slight mist is also developing.

Looks like some of the region has been taken out of the met office warning for tomorrow. Looks like the South Coast and parts of Kent, Sussex etc look best placed for the rain, with Essex and EA missing out altogether. Is that still the case?

[HammerJack]

Just been out and it may be mild but it does not feel quite as such.Oh, anyone seen this?http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-24365367

Yes mate I did. The thing I notice about SOME cyclist (and I am not branding all cyclist like this by any means) is that they have no care or consideration for other road users ie cars, lorries etc, and also pedestrians. I drive around London every weekend doing the knowledge, and they jump red lights, undertake vehicles who are indicating to turn left, and when you pick them up about it as I often do you get abuse thrown at you. I honestly believe that cyclist should have some kind of marking on them (like a registration plate, but smaller) to make them adhere to the Highway Code, knowing that if they drive recklessly they could get fined. They also have to remember, like motorcycle drivers, they have nothing around them to protect them, If they get hit. When I drive my motorbike around London, or even locally, I'm so mindful of others, and the irrational things drivers do behind the wheel of a vehicle. Sorry for the completely off topic post, but Jax did start it hahaha 😄

[john pike]

updated fax charts

 

tomorrow

 

a gusty south-south easterly

 

rainfall according to these show

 

dry up to probably arounf 4pm

 

then

 

heavy rain for most

 

some pretty lively showers with gusty winds and the odd rumble or 2

 

looks to me that the tod area may not see rain until 9pm

 

temps

 

would not rule out 20-22 degrees here

 

the storm risk is more likely late afternoon early evening time

 

 

tomorrow night

 

warm and humid

 

showers around and some heavy and still with a risk of the odd rumble

 

 

friday

 

a gusty westerly flow

 

temps around 16 degrees

 

rainfall

 

am rain and some heavy to the west of london

 

pm looks like the west of london may hold on to some rain with mainly dry for the rest

 

 

friday night dry and poss mist

 

feeling a tad chillier

 

 

saturday

 

a weak south-south easterly flow

 

expect early mist and fog again in usual spots

 

staying dry

 

temps

 

around 14-16 degrees

 

cloudcover etc hard to call at present

 

update the rest later

[john pike]

 

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143250.shtml?basin#contents

 

keep model watching up to 6 days for now

 

this will cause more headaches again

 

sea temperatures

 

 

 

surprised to see how quick our corner has cooled down

Edited October 2, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

 

look dry from the 5th to the 11th ish

 

temps around average to slightly above 

 

fi looks like the 9th

 

note on the 10th onwards some cold ensembles showing now

[HammerJack]

Thanks JP. That's cleared up tomorrow for me ðŸ‘

[Crepuscular Ray]

So, rather than torrential rainfall requiring the use of a small dinghy, it'll rain for a bit, heavily at times. Hmmm. 

 

Still can't work out the current conditions banner on the home page - it regularly shows bright sunshine in the middle of the night and moonlight during the day. Currently it's showing fog, which isn't the case at all, although the major fireworks event somewhere nearby makes it sound like it should be a foggy November night. Either that or the Martians have got fed up with us sending hardware to snoop on them and decided to retaliate. 

[Reefseeker]

Muggy tonight. Did manage to get a few sunny spells this afternoon leading to the car temperature showing 21 degrees down the west side of the M25. It's bound to rain tomorrow evening, usually does for my son's 2-hour special needs athletics session at Kingsmeadow!

[john pike]

sunday

 

a mainly westerly flow

 

high pressure in control

 

after early morning mist and fog it should clear by mid morning

 

temperatures should be somewhere around

 

20-22 degrees

 

probably the warmest being the tod area

 

monday not up yet

[Mark Neal.]

Rather mild here. 17.4c still

[john pike]

monday

 

dry and warm

 

temps around 20-24 degrees

 

all subject to cloudcover

 

 

seen worse

[HammerJack]

Heavy dew falling on all surfaces now. Current temp 16c. Feels very close.

Goodnight all