Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Captain Shortwave]

Well goodbye warm sunny south/south easterly

hello anticyclonic gloom.

So why the celebration? I thought people hated dull cloudy weather

Also the high on the pub run is going to be a lot harder to shift than anything shown on the 12z suite.

Edited October 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SMU]

yes its all going west- another 24 hours will probably = another 500-750 miles-

 

S

[Frosty.]

18z looks about right to me, it's a fair reflection of the output today and tonight.

High pressure either slap bang on top of the uk and then slowly becoming centred further east has dominated the output.

Edited October 4, 2013 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well goodbye warm sunny south/south easterly

hello anticyclonic gloom.

So why the celebration? I thought people hated dull cloudy weather

Also the high on the pub run is going to be a lot harder to shift than anything shown on the 12z suite.

 

As Steve M has pointed out this looks like a shift in the NWP and the GFS 18z is only half way there. The Metoffice have seemingly ignored the ECM so there must be more weighting towards the UKMO their end? If we get to the UKMO version of events then there won't be much anticyclonic gloom- but it may feel a tad fresh

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Huge, huge changes on the latest GFS as demonstrated above! Just goes to show how interesting this model watching is. 

Foggy, maybe the first frosty mornings may come out of this at some point if it verifies. And to be honest, I do like a nice, quiet foggy morning. 

This could further down the line make huge differences to the jet and may well herald a change to the first real signs of cold if the high retrogresses further.

Edited October 4, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[lorenzo]

And why the pub run is fun !!

 

 

 

[Yarmy]

Only just catching up, but the model output is all over the shop. Instead of breaking down zonally the HP Is actually shifting West if the GFS pub run and UKMO are correct. How weak is the Atlantic?

ECM is still the daddy, so...?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interesting chart......3pm temperatures. Can see the continent starting to cool down with high single figure max temps- higher temps being pushed further S&W. Pretty soon any continental influence will start to feel rather chilly

 

[Richie V]

Not very technical I know but I still stand by what I said this morning. my better judgement says the high will get flattened fairly quick in the next 12 runs or so (gfs)

Well looking at the wild differences just this eve in outputs my feeling on this is as good as any I suppose. If it happens, just call it years of expierience with this setup.

Ric

[Captain Shortwave]

As Steve M has pointed out this looks like a shift in the NWP and the GFS 18z is only half way there. The Metoffice have seemingly ignored the ECM so there must be more weighting towards the UKMO their end? If we get to the UKMO version of events then there won't be much anticyclonic gloom- but it may feel a tad fresh

Trouble is, this run is the halfway house solution.

If this solution ends up verifying, everyone loses. No warmth, no cold, no sun, no rain, no wind, and probably no frost or fog due to persistent cloud cover.

I would rather have the southerly because if there are no frontal systems around many areas can get warm and sunny weather. Anticyclonic weather is fine but in this scenario we have 3-4 days of winds sourced from the mid-Atlantic so we will be importing a lot of cloud, it the high settles over us then that cloud is trapped with nowhere to go over us.

The northerly is just a waste of a pattern which if it waited even just two more weeks, it could have delivered something more than 10C and variable cloud.

In the end it's the weather and there's nothing we can do to effect it. What will be will be. 

Also the clarify it's usually normal for the Metoffice to back it's raw output near enough in the fax charts. So I'm not surprised there.

Edited October 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Yeah ecm is the daddy and it shows a warm settled outlook. :-)

[phil nw.]

I think maybe premature excitement over a bit of chill promised by the UKMO to our NE next week.

Essentially the block stays close to NW Europe it's just the more meridonal UKMO sharpens that Scandi. trough for a short while.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think maybe premature excitement over a bit of chill promised by the UKMO to our NE next week.

Essentially the block stays close to NW Europe it's just the more meridonal UKMO sharpens that Scandi. trough for a short while.

 

Phil, anything which deviates away from a deep seated S'ly is welcomed with open arms at this present time, by me at least.

[Captain Shortwave]

Behold the glasses of uncertainty

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Behold the glasses of uncertainty

 

 

My nan has a pair like that. If you look closely you can see her cataract.

Edited October 4, 2013 by CreweCold

[phil nw.]

Phil, anything which deviates away from a deep seated S'ly is welcomed with open arms at this present time, by me at least.

Lol -yes we are seeing a prolonged blocking setup considerng the time of year so i know what you mean Crewe.

None of the Ens, outputs show anything cold coming south yet though.

Too soon to fret about the mild anyway-as you know another month then we can seriously look for the signs of cold.

[Hairy Celt]

Massive changes at just 114 between the 12z and 18z. Shocking.

 

P.S I've always maintained the GFS ensembles are next to useless

 

Perhaps related to being free on NW?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Perhaps related to being free on NW?

 

Nothing to do with price or availability. I've seen too many instances of complete flips within them in the space of 1 or 2 runs. I've seen tightly clustered perturbations fall apart at just 72 hours out. Just plain useless in my opinion. I've always said it.

Edited October 4, 2013 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

Behold the glasses of uncertainty

That's really SPECSTACULAR :-)

[Timmytour]

My nan has a pair like that. If you look closely you can see her cataract.

They must be holding up well for her age.....EDIT: Oh...you mean glasses?  <slinks away>

[AWD]

As was probably likely, the UKMO 0z run is slowly but surely moving towards something akin to recent EC Det output;

I think it's rather likely now that the outlook is above average rather than below average for 99% of the UK, 99% of the time. A little premature excitement with regards to cold me thinks last night.

GFS Op, FWIW, similiar for the foreseeable.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the UKMO now has the northerly missing the UK completely, it's still the most west with the pattern.

GFS has pretty much stuck except for the westerly push of the pattern is stronger now.

GEM has backed the current GFS run.

Also on the GFS ens, there isn't really one perturbation which backs the current UKMO output, though that probably doesn't mean much. Still big uncertainty in the ens in the Atlantic region.

ECM running now.

Edit ECM has defected 

 

Well that's the Metoffice's outlook made today in the shredder if this is right.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SomeLikeItHot]

ECM going the way of UKMO, actually its colder that the UKMO this run.

 

[Frosty.]

Well the UKMO now has the northerly missing the UK completely, it's still the most west with the pattern.

GFS has pretty much stuck except for the westerly push of the pattern is stronger now.

GEM has backed the current GFS run.

Also on the GFS ens, there isn't really one perturbation which backs the current UKMO output, though that probably doesn't mean much. Still big uncertainty in the ens in the Atlantic region.

ECM running now.

Edit ECM has defected 

 

LOL it's rather funny this, oh well..Ecm is still the daddy Just need that high to pull further west though boom 

Edited October 5, 2013 by Frosty.

[SMU]

A sudden change expected tonight & overnight on the models....

 

S

 

 

& this is why you never believe the GFS or GFS ensemble suite-

 

UKMO more or less unchanged overnight ( a SLIGHT shift East)

 

& now the ECM is at the party-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100500/ECM1-120.GIF?05-12

 

 

We will wait to get to 72 to see the ACTUAL outputs allign so Im not claiming any sort of forecasting victory for one model, however if people had forgotton how useless the GFS is then I will be happy reminding them sunday if the ECM & UKMO now stay alligned...

 

S