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Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As you were

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Bank!

 

Posted Image


Those suggesting the settled spell will last 10+ days are mistaken IMO, we are lucky to get that in July. Its october and things can change very quickly.

 

We are only saying what the models are showing I think we'll get 5 to 7 days minimum

 

Any chance you could add you location to your profile?

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Those suggesting the settled spell will last 10+ days are mistaken IMO, we are lucky to get that in July. Its october and things can change very quickly.

Well the September spell lasted from the 20th September and well it's been mostly sunny until today, and the rain has only just arrived, that's nearly 12 days, followed by a 48 hour blip before it's settled again.

Didn't you say this would even last 5 days before Posted Image

GFS, same as you were, no breakdown until after day 10, GEM rolling out, high pressure in control for the most part too.

It doesn't matter what month it is, the synoptics show nothing but settled weather and a very weak Atlantic.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Those suggesting the settled spell will last 10+ days are mistaken IMO, we are lucky to get that in July. Its october and things can change very quickly.

 

It makes no difference what time of year it is, if high pressure stays in the right position, it will be settled. At the minute there is no end in sight when looking at the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Anyone in Europe who feels like they are missing out

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

High pressure for everyone!!! Posted Image

Except Iceland

UKMO looks fine too

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Anyone in Europe who feels like they are missing out

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

High pressure for everyone!!! Posted Image

Except Iceland

If only that was the beginning of August... We would be on fire!

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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

Those suggesting the settled spell will last 10+ days are mistaken IMO, we are lucky to get that in July. Its october and things can change very quickly.

I don't think they are. I don't think this high pressure is going to go away for ages.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

is anyone else having problems posting charts on here or is it just me because to me they are just blank:Posted Image

 

Anyway, if I could see the charts I had posted,Posted Image  the ukmo 12z is looking like becoming very settled and warm with lots of sun and light winds.

post-4783-0-04991600-1380737435_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-34610100-1380737460_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As you were from ECM

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Once we get tomorrows torrential rain out the way for some parts of the UK we'll see slow improvements during Friday

 

t168 shows the high making it to mid week

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

No end in sight once more

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest from Gibby

 

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 2nd 2013.All models show a warm and moist Southerly flow over the UK with a marked and severe weather event possible in the SW tomorrow, extending further NE through the day. After some heavy overnight showers and area of potentially disruptive thundery downpours will move up across the SW of Britain and other Western areas later before it swings East over remaining areas as a narrowing band late in the day. On Friday pressure will be rising with sunny spells and showers before the South falls under the influence of a strong ridge of High pressure at the weekend and start of next week. The North will see this change much slower with some rain still expected through the weekend and into Monday before the ridge extends North.

 

GFS shows much of next week dry and on the mild side with some warm sunshine at times but a fair amount of cloud at times too in the Southerly breeze. Late in the week a trough runs North up the West side of Britain with a spell of more unsettled weather for a time before fronts cross East over the second weekend with some rain for all. the end of the run sees more changeable and cooler weather developing as deeper and more meaningful Atlantic depressions push in from the West.

 

UKMO shows a ridge of High pressure close to Southern Britain early next week with Westerly winds across the North carrying cloudy and damp weather. In the South a better chance of some brighter conditions is likely where it will feel rather warm.

 

GEM shows a more tentative approach t settled conditions next week with the weekend High slipping away East and allowing shallow Low pressure to deliver some showers for a time. The SE flow is prevalent though and this will certainly maintain temperatures above average with some warm sunshine possible at times though cloud amounts could be troublesome with local fog patches at night.NAVGEM looks similar to

 

UKMO tonight at 144hrs with a ridge near the South while a Westerly flow over the North weakens. The weather will become fine for all thereafter with the chance of some sunshine and temperatures rather warm for the time of year.

 

ECM continues to show High pressure dominant next week centred to the East of the UK with a strong ridge West over the UK. Some weak fronts will graze the West later in the week but no significant rain is likely with some warm sunny spells for some in temperatures well above the seasonal average.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a sustained period of temperatures rather above normal though there is a trend between members tonight that things could turn more average at the end of the run as cooler uppers approach. Amounts of rain are still very limited with the SE holding on to the dry weather next week the longest. The operational is the exception to this rule in the South during week 2 however but it stands in isolation.

 

The Jet Stream flowing to the South of the UK currently breaks up over the following 48hrs before re-routing to a position NW of Britain by next week.

 

In Summary it is no surprise that this morning's very warm ECM has been modified somewhat but the message remains the same with High pressure becoming the driving force to the UK weather next week as it centres to the East or SE fending off rain bearing fronts and depressions to give a lengthy period of benign and quiet weather with the potential for rather warm conditions, a fair amount of cloud but some warm sunshine on occasion too.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Whilst not as warm the ECM creates an absolute beast of a high, big core of 1040mb, only the far north of Scandinavia and Russia is not kept settle under that

Posted Image

Any breakdown would be a long way off here.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Should be quite nice, the cool theta values indicative of a slight inversion which should keep minima low.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's GEFS 12z mean looks very impressive indeed, anticyclonic and pleasantly warm with temps into the high teens to possibly low 20's celsius at times, probably a good deal of sunshine and mainly light and variable winds but with chillier nights as time goes on with a risk of mist and fog, it's a very benign, pleasant spell ahead of us once we get beyond the very wet next 24-36 hours.Posted Image

post-4783-0-61651200-1380745024_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-37054400-1380745033_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-28376500-1380745081_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-82747900-1380745085_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-40956200-1380745094_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-97564700-1380745100_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-27360200-1380745107_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-07791400-1380745115_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-42792200-1380745123_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

Whilst not as warm the ECM creates an absolute beast of a high, big core of 1040mb, only the far north of Scandinavia and Russia is not kept settle under that

Posted Image

Any breakdown would be a long way off here.

But what weather would that give us?

Wouldn't mind sunshine and frost.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

But what weather would that give us?

Wouldn't mind sunshine and frost.

Mist and fog at night, clear, sunny and warm by day unless you are unlucky and the fog sticks throughout, shouldn't be any fronts around by then as they are being held well out in the Atlantic

ECM ens, more of the same really, high pressure in charge throughout after the next 48 hours

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Well tonight's charts look pleasant but oh so very boring, like most of the last 4 or 5 months bar a few days here and there. Enjoy it, we have 5 long months of fun coming soon! Bring on late night and early morning chart checking I say. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As CS has said high pressure is in charge from Saturday to at least the following Saturday on the ECM ensemble

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Uppers never drop any lower than +5

 

Posted Image

 

Other than some possible morning fog which could linger in prone spots we are looking at another very good spell of weather from Saturday

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEM 12z shows what looks like a weakness (shallow trough) across the south early next week despite pressure of 1020 mb or higher, maybe a risk of a few heavy showers scattered around but apart from that, it looks pleasantly warm with long sunny spells for most areas next week.

post-4783-0-20814000-1380746730_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

NAVGEM 12z looks better, very warm for the time of year, impressive T850hPa and a more settled spell with no risk of showers and probably very little in the way of cloud, perfect early october weather.Posted Image there is nothing boring about these charts today in my opinion, they show the closest we are likely to get to an indian summer pattern, something to cherish.

post-4783-0-96030100-1380747323_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-25377500-1380747332_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Would be good to hear from some experienced members the reason why we appear to be in a stuck pattern during what is on average quite a topsy-turvy period of the year weatherwise.

 

I think it is down to the energy in the polar vortex being on the other side of the pole and a weak hurrican eseason which is causing a weak very ineffective atlantic and the propensity for stronger heights on this side of the pole.

 

Its quite uncommon to see a lengthy high pressure spell during latter part of September well into October bar the odd temporary interruption as we are seeing right now.

 

Mind a common notable theme of recent Octobers has been the propensity for very lengthy dry settled high pressure blocked periods to exert themselves with higher than normal pressure over scandanavia just as we have now. 2005, 2009 and 2010 being quite extreme examples. October 95 was another good example.

 

The pattern will break eventually, but in the meantime come Saturday its very much another benign spell of weather.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Amazing model output today, even better outlook than shown on last few days so the upgrades continue, It looks like high pressure all the way from this weekend until beyond mid month, quite stunning. :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

 

Its quite uncommon to see a lengthy high pressure spell during latter part of September well into October bar the odd temporary interruption as we are seeing right now.

 

 

 

Not that uncommon I feel,  during September/October for high pressure to act like a blocking high, especially in recent years. Its not really until November/December onwards is where big deep lows are more likely to develop, assuming part of the reason is down to very cold air interacting with the warmer Atlantic waters which powers up the jet stream.

 

Would not mind some severe gale events, been starved of them in recent years. At the moment though, it does seem high pressure will be in control although the models are hinting weather fronts edging ever closer to North Western areas at times so I don't think it will be especially sunny at all times though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

It is indeed a helluva chart, at 10 days out, will be an interesting watch alone, among the swathe of seemingly endless settled charts we have a great big whacking anomaly to track.

 

NH view also looks pretty spectacular and bottlenecks the vortex. Should ensure the Snow and Ice in NH thread goes off on one for the next 10 days !!

Posted ImageECH1-240.gif Posted Imagetest8.gif

 

Interesting to see ECM still with the bias to lower scandi heights, so what actually verifies could be a little more powerful than expected.

Posted Imagebias_ne_05_12z_ecmwf_f168_500_hght.gif

 

At the same time frame over the last 10 12z runs the GFS reports a generally similar theme.

Posted Imagebias_ne_10_12z_gfs_f168_500_hght.gif

 

Hi Lorenzo, when you state the following "Should ensure the Snow and Ice in NH thread goes off on one for the next 10 days !!", what do you mean by this?

 

Are you suggesting that where the purple colours showing deep troughing (the displaced Polar Vortex? Posted Image ) are predicted to be in the case of the first chart, there will potentially be massive dumpings of further SNOW in that region. If I'm reading this correctly, I see vast swathes of Central Europe under a rather static Euro type high bringing a distinct lack of snow and cold conditions, unless under fog for long periods of time.

 

Whatever ends up as the ultimate scenario, I do find this an intriguing pattern as we slowly crawl towards the cooler phase of late Autumn and the descent into Winter, a case of patience grasshopper for us coldies. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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