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Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13


phil nw.

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Morning-

 

Models looking decidedly good at the moment- generally mild to warm SE flow & very settled conditions-

 

No sign of any cold just yet, but its to early doors so enjoy the warmth while it lasts- ive a feeling though as well move on through October we will get a very sharp shock to the system!

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

High Pressure here we come.....we have cross model agreement on a very anticyclonic outlook and becoming warmer with temperatures into the low 20's celsius which will be exceptional as we head towards mid october, this is going to be goodPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Whilst the degree of settled/unsettled will wax and wane so to speak, there can be no major change in the pattern until the upper air long wave pattern changes.  Currently that looks set for that period on the 500mb anomaly charts (6-15 days or so) which are now all showing similar. That is height rises and ridging east of the UK and the major trough in the 20-30 degree west area so a relatively warm flow from south of west at that height.

Currently little else to suggest that undergoing a marked change from other teleconnections in a somewhat longer time frame but of course this can change-I'll keep my eye on things!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I am extremely doubtful about mid 20s

 

I don't believe Frosty mentioned mid 20s. Low 20s over much of England and Wales would be very possible in the setups being shown by the models for next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Latest from Gibby

 

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 3rd 2013.

 

All models continue to show a warm and very unstable Southerly flow over the UK with a major disturbance running NNE across the UK today and tonight. In association with this is a prolonged period of very heavy rain perhaps with thunder in places. It moves through SW England and Wales this morning and more Eastern and Northern areas tonight. A clearance follows before a wrap around feature spreads another band of squally rain East overnight followed by cleaner and fresher air with better visibilities by tomorrow. Through tomorrow pressure is shown to rise smartly from the South with dry weather extending North through the day. Through the weekend things could stay more unsettled in the far North under an Atlantic influence still but Southern areas will stay dry and fine with some overnight fog patches.

 

GFS then shows next week with the fine weather extending further North to all areas by midweek as High pressure settles over the UK with widespread mist and fog problems night and morning but some welcome sunshine each afternoon if the fog clears. Changes through the following weekend and out to the end of the run are slow but indications show that it may become somewhat cooler and more changeable with some rain at times in a more Atlantic based airflow.

 

UKMO shows unsettled weather still clinging on to northernmost parts early next week while the South lies under a ridge of high pressure and fine and pleasantly warm weather with fog at night. This then spreads North to affect all areas by midweek when fog could become quite persistent and dense in places, slow to clear in the mornings.

 

GEM shows the north as still very changeable early next week with some rain at times and cooler weather than of late while Southern areas stay mostly dry and mild with a lot of cloud and some patchy fog at times overnight. Then a spell of dry and settled weather develops under High pressure for a while before this edges away East and setting up a very mild Southerly flow with a lot of cloud but any rain restricted to the far West late in the run.

 

NAVGEM has a strong Westerly flow over the North early next week with some rain in places while the South is dry and bright close to a ridge of High pressure in the channel. Through the midweek period the rain and wind in the far north moves away and is replaced by fine and settled weather as High pressure builds over the UK with bright and dry days when it will feel reasonably mild in any brightness while nights could become rather cool with extensive mist and fog problems late in the week.

 

ECM completes the pattern with it too showing an unsettled beginning to next week in the North before fine weather already over the South extends North from a finger of High pressure extending West from Europe. With light winds and quite stagnant air later in the week mist and fog could become extensive and dense and slow to clear through the daytimes. in any brighter spells that break through during the day it would quickly become warm locally.

 

The GFS Ensembles maintain their bias towards mild conditions lasting through the next few weeks. there is a lot of spread between members North and South from the middle of the run though more options go for mildness than anything dramatically chilly. Rainfall is sporadic and restricted to the next few days in the South and building again towards the end of the run. The North too show some members giving a reasonable spell of dry weather in the North too at times.

 

The Jet Stream is currently migrating back North today along with our monsoon like depression before settling in a position moving NE to the NW of Scotland by the weekend and through much of next week.

 

In Summary today after the current spell of rain leaves the South dry weather looks like predominating here for the reliable time frame thereafter while the North holds on to the unsettled and breezy regime somewhat longer. All models then support a build of pressure Nationwide next week with a spell of stagnant and benign weather when mist and fog could become a major issue night and morning especially inland and in the South. What happens longer term remains open for debate with most output keen to continue a fairly quiet for October pattern of weather through the first half of the month with temperatures no worse than average and often somewhat above.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well again ECM ens seeing no end in sight to the settled weather

Posted Image

 

Average pressure of 1025mb by day 10 is pretty extraordinary and shows how little scatter there is synoptically, uppers are around 6-8C so above average for the time of year and given the continental flow it will feel very pleasant by day.

Looks like the northern half of Russia is entering winter as well now

Posted Image

 

In other news, there appears to be some thunderstorms already firing off across the channel, could be an interesting day

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Remarkable ensemble means this morning both show it lasting beyond day 8 (it arrives Saturday and is still here by 13th)

 

GFS ensemble

 

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ECM ensemble

 

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GFS ensemble keeps it going to t312 hrs

 

Posted Image

 

Before it only slips southwards very slowly

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 00z mean becomes very anticyclonic, these charts are showing a warm and sunny outlook with light winds but with chilly nights and increasing risk of fog but they are very benign charts with no sign of a pattern change, just the usual empty threats beyond T+300 hours that the PFJ may push south, it's a very nice outlook indeed...ENJOYPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 00z ensemble mean is even better because the core of the anticyclone becomes centred to the east/se which enables warmer continental air to drift up across the uk, these ecm charts are as good as it gets at this time of year, this ecm mean brings an indian summer to the uk...these are eye popping jaw dropping charts for early to mid october with temperatures soaring into the low 20's celsius if these charts verify....BANKPosted Image 

 

Americans would call this a slam dunk of a runPosted Image 

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

The current set up looks like ensuring that large parts of Russia and east Europe will continue to feel the chill with the HP set up over the UK / near continent.

 

A big boon for us cold lovers eagerly watching the advancing snow cover across Russia.  Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Out to day 10 the GEFS mean has pressure remaining high to the south of the UK feeding up very warm air for the time of year. Upper temperatures are of the sort that you would expect in an average July.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS 06z ensemble mean is even better than the 00z mean with pressure not leaving on the run at all

 

t384 (October 19th)

 

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06z op run

 

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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
Posted · Hidden by snow raven, October 3, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by snow raven, October 3, 2013 - No reason given

Eventually it will go away though and I have a feeling that you mildies are going to get a big slap across the jaw. Patterns don't stay forever.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GFS 06Z operational run is anticyclonic from this weekend until the end of the run which takes us beyond mid month, the azores high builds in and takes control and the warmth increases daily but on this run, the main core of the anticyclone is pulled northwest for a time due in part to the forcing much further north as a cold blast shears across northern scandinavia, cooler air is drawn down the eastern flank of the high but only very briefly, this is about as anticyclonic as you could get and after the cooler blip later next week, it warms up again as our high drifts further eastwards which enables warmer continental to drift into the uk...as Frank Carson used to say...it's a crackerPosted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

We need a few good sharp frosts to get rid of these bloody spiders, can't stand the things. Especially not late at night in a room on my own!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Eventually it will go away though and I have a feeling that you mildies are going to get a big slap across the jaw. Patterns don't stay forever.

Case of biding our time. The blue Siberian army is building its forces earlier and stronger than recent years. Warm north Atlantic waters will encourage high pressure to build there is due course. Whilst everyone is moaning about the current weather, I am quietly monitoring the building blocks towards hopefully a blocking high developing to our north west in the final 2 months of this year. 

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

The GFS 06Z operational run is anticyclonic from this weekend until the end of the run which takes us beyond mid month, the azores high builds in and takes control and the warmth increases daily but on this run, the main core of the anticyclone is pulled northwest for a time due in part to the forcing much further north as a cold blast shears across northern scandinavia, cooler air is drawn down the eastern flank of the high but only very briefly, this is about as anticyclonic as you could get and after the cooler blip later next week, it warms up again as our high drifts further eastwards which enables warmer continental to drift into the uk...as Frank Carson used to say...it's a crackerPosted Image 

 

Temps coming down nicely there!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Temps coming down nicely there!

 

Keep hoping as the GFS is on its own with regards to the high moving westwards- the ECM op this morning showed nothing of the sort- that run actually gets warmer as it progresses.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Temps coming down nicely there!

Yeah, they go up, they come down and then they go up again but it's anticyclonic all the way with no sign of a pattern change whatsoever. : -)

 

And that's just based on the 6z op run, there is much greater support for a significant warm up with high pressure becoming centred to the southeast/east of the uk next week, and the high looks like sticking around for a long time with low pressure floundering around in the atlantic like a ship without a rudder.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Just a reminder to some of the newer members that there is the other Model thread here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

--if you wish to talk about your weather preferences or hopes/disappointments on the current outlook.

 

We have had to remove some posts which added nothing to model discussion.

 

Thanks allPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

You can't ask for much better than this - it's like payback time for the stunted Spring. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

You can't ask for much better than this - it's like payback time for the stunted Spring. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Aye Gaz, the weather certainly has a sense of humour..Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

You can't ask for much better than this - it's like payback time for the stunted Spring. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Yes Gaz,just a slow decline in those temps, as we should expect going further into October.

 

Latest T84hrs fax shows that build of high pressure nicely by Sunday.

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that far northwest corner will be affected by those Atlantic fronts periodically though as they move over the top of the Euro block.

Stll it's a pretty decent outlook for many of us next week with some above average daytime temps and a lot of dry weather.

The Manchester ens graph for example

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so the quiet Autumn pattern continues well into the new month by the looks of the latest outputs.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice looking Fax charts for the southern half of the uk from saturday onwards with increasingly warm and sunny weather as the azores high builds in strongly, just a bit more unsettled and breezier for n.ireland & scotland with fronts brushing around the top of the building anticyclone but I would think by T+144 to T+168 hours, the high will have muscled it's way in and brought fine and warmer weather to those initially unsettled far northwestern areas too.Posted Image

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