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Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Hmm not again

Posted Image

 

This has been a developing trend on the GFS and other models are moving towards it. I think our Euro high party might be spoiled by a deep low developing over Canada, this builds a stronger ridge through the eastern seaboard which quickly cuts off the Atlantic trough. This in turn encourages our developing high to retrogress slightly to a less favourable position (AKA the 06z GFS run).

Also means FI is now down to just 4 days away when the low is cut off.

The high ends up slap bang over the UK and will now drift east again

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Hmm not again

Posted Image

 

This has been a developing trend on the GFS and other models are moving towards it. I think our Euro high party might be spoiled by a deep low developing over Canada, this builds a stronger ridge through the eastern seaboard which quickly cuts off the Atlantic trough. This in turn encourages our developing high to retrogress slightly to a less favourable position (AKA the 06z GFS run).

Also means FI is now down to just 4 days away when the low is cut off.

The outcome isn't as bad as the 06Z run though, high ends up slap bang over the UK and will now drift east again

Posted Image

I would happily take another 6z op run, it was anticyclonic almost from start to finish and the high ended up drifting further east eventually, essentially it was pleasant and sunny but with some chilly nights, nothing wrong with that, temps got close to 70F early on, then dipped but then returned to above average later.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Sunday looking very pleasant at the moment with light winds the further south you are and temperatures touching 20c. Obviously dependant on the all important sunshine amounts at this time of year.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Yes I would certainly not be unhappy if the GFS was right, I'd prefer the high not to move westwards and introduce cooler air but it will still be very pleasant if it happens. In any case I'm going to wait for the ECM to come out before I jump to conclusions as it hasn't shown even a hint of the high moving westwards. 

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Cooler air filtering south midweek as the high repositions itself but remaining warm in the south west.

 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

slowly and finally a breakdown showing in the gfs 12z omg I wish the real autumn weather would just hurry up some action needed.

its been boring.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

slowly and finally a breakdown showing in the gfs 12z omg I wish the real autumn weather would just hurry up some action needed.

its been boring.

Errr... what breakdown? The GFS is out to just beyond day 12 high pressure is still in charge

Posted Image

I guess there is one in 2 weeks time Posted Image

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But doesn't that look similar to what we have today?

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Errr... what breakdown? The GFS is out to just beyond day 12 high pressure is still in charge

 

but of coarse its not as stable as 12 hours before so its a slow breakdown and cool down.

but of coarse its not as stable as 12 hours before so its a slow breakdown and cool down

 

Edited by model rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GFS 12z op run is looking very nice, pleasantly warm with high pressure slow moving through next week, such a big improvement since earlier this week when the outlook was for cool, wet and windy, high pressure has had the last laughPosted Image

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

slowly and finally a breakdown showing in the gfs 12z omg I wish the real autumn weather would just hurry up some action needed.

its been boring.

 

It is slow not until t312 does the low try and force the high east

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

slowly and finally a breakdown showing in the gfs 12z omg I wish the real autumn weather would just hurry up some action needed.

its been boring.

Surely the GFS shifting the high west to sit over the UK is an even worse situation for people who like unsettled weather than if it was situated a few hundred miles further east. Notice how FI recently on the GFS has any breakdown on the very last frames of FI, a couple of days back it was breaking the pattern down at around day 10

 

Thank bloody god!!!

Lol, this high will probably have more cloud trapped in it than the more situated further East, the cloud which comes in this weekend has nowhere to go and will simply be trapped underneath the high instead of breaking up due to a drier continental flow.

So it's not really a victory at all, cool and cloudy instead of warm and sunny. The phrase anticyclonic gloom comes to mind off the GFS run through hi-resolution.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The GFS 12z op run is looking very nice, pleasantly warm with high pressure slow moving through next week, such a big improvement since earlier this week when the outlook was for cool, wet and windy, high pressure has had the last laughPosted Image

 

Thank bloody god!!!

 

Doesn't last though +10 uppers make a swift return

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

The uppers never drop below +5 for the whole run

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

It is slow not until t312 does the low try and force the high east

 

Posted Image

of coarse massively fi lets see what the more stable ecm says before we right of October very early days yet. but starts warms but slowly temps decline to more average values with night frost possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Doesn't last though +10 uppers make a swift return

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

The uppers never drop below +5 for the whole run

 

Posted Image

I think the BLOCK could hold until november,

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Doesn't last though +10 uppers make a swift return

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

The uppers never drop below +5 for the whole run

 

Posted Image

of coarse plus five is average for October.

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and of coarse low pressure of this magnitude up against heights that is already retreating then its very possible low pressure will win in the end settled till November could well be possible but very unlikely as interaction with season change is almost certain at some point.

 

keep an eye on the teleconnections all those that are bored of this type of weather.

Edited by model rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

of coarse plus five is average for October.

 

For the south yes Scotland is around +3 for October so they'll be well above average next week with uppers closer to +10 in places

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I would take the GEM over the GFS any day

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High stays a little further south east and then lets rip with a warm continental flow, 14C uppers at times and sunny skies.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

I think the BLOCK could hold until november,

well if that happens i'm going to have to have a nervous breakdown!! 1 month of cloud!

 

of coarse plus five is average for October.

Posted Image

and of coarse low pressure of this magnitude up against heights that is already retreating then its very possible low pressure will win in the end settled till November could well be possible but very unlikely as interaction with season change is almost certain at some point.

 

keep an eye on the teleconnections all those that are bored of this type of weather.

It won't give cold weather though and usually we get a few days of subzero uppers each October.

Edited by smithyweather
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

For the south yes Scotland is around +3 for October so they'll be well above average next week with uppers closer to +10 in places

of coarse the next few days could always show different set up im sure things will change they always do and always will.

if high temps in October are what your looking for then the gem is the charts that really will blow hot air on the whole model output thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well then

Posted Image

 

I think this is a bit too early, but this is the kind of chart I am personally looking to see signs off appearing at the end of October going into November.

Coldies need to hang tight for a couple more weeks, the sluggish jet will allow us to move onto the cold side when the time is right, what we don't want is a repeat of October 2011 where we had a similar set up which then broke down when the polar vortex set up over Greenland and set up a zonal pattern for the next 3 and a half months. Just because it's warmer than average now doesn't mean it will stay like that for much longer (beyond mid-month)

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ukmo 12z is a peach, especially for the southern half of the uk with high pressure becoming dominant, warmest further south but pleasant in the north too, that cold blast in norway is of no consequence to the uk, we are going warm and gradually sunnier after tomorrow.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

Well then

Posted Image

I think this is a bit too early, but this is the kind of chart I am personally looking to see signs off appearing at the end of October going into November.

Coldies need to hang tight for a couple more weeks, the sluggish jet will allow us to move onto the cold side when the time is right, what we don't want is a repeat of October 2011 where we had a similar set up which then broke down when the polar vortex set up over Greenland and set up a zonal pattern for the next 3 and a half months. Just because it's warmer than average now doesn't mean it will stay like that for much longer (beyond mid-month)

Naw I don't think we will. We are all eager to get off. Could you actually explain why its beneficial?? Edited by smithyweather
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