Tropical Storm Karen

[Coast]

Invest 97L likely to become TD12 and then swiftly TS Karen later today:

 

Caribbean system may become tropical storm Karen and affect Gulf and East coasts

 

 

A tropical storm may be brewing in the western Caribbean, and is expected to strengthen as it heads toward the northern Gulf coast this weekend. Early next week, some of its moisture may be drawn up the East Coast towards the Mid-Atlantic. The disturbance is centered just 130 miles east of the Yucatan peninsula, but is slowly getting better organized, and could become Tropical Depression 12 later today or tomorrow (for additional background, see Tuesday’s blog post).  In fact, all available model guidance suggests that this will become a tropical storm by Thursday morning, at which point it would earn the name Karen… the eleventh named storm of the season.

 

 

Strong thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage and consolidating around a broad surface low pressure, bringing periods of heavy rain to the entire region today, including the Cayman islands, western Cuba, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula.  An Air Force reconnaissance plane is tasked to fly into the disturbance later today to collect details on its structure and intensity. By tonight or tomorrow morning, the center will pass over the Yucatan peninsula, then spend several hours over land before re-emerging over water in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

 

There is tight model agreement on the near-term storm evolution, and fairly good agreement even at longer time frames. Looking ahead 3-4 days, the storm will likely get entangled with a mid-latitude trough in the northern Gulf, which would keep it weak, but actually enhance the forecast rainfall totals along the northern Gulf coast.  Over the next week, estimates in excess of the 2 inch range  cover a large area.  Peak totals of over 6 inches are already anticipated near the center. The large-scale environmental conditions that it is experiencing now are favorable for its development, but that could all change once it enters the Gulf of Mexico.  Although the system is in a protective bubble of rather moist air now, deep dry air in the Gulf of Mexico will erode away at that bubble and eventually get entrained into the circulation, especially when the vertical wind shear ramps up to over 25 mph in a couple days.

 

 

A tropical storm landfall looks likely Saturday, somewhere from eastern Louisiana over to the Florida panhandle.  Since it’s expected to remain relatively weak (or maybe not even tropical!), the exact landfall position is not a big concern. Heavy rain will affect a broad area regardless of where it washes ashore and its technical classification. By Sunday night into Monday night, the system’s remnants will merge with a front marching towards the East Coast.  Some locally heavy rain could move into sections of the Mid-Atlantic at that time – though pinpointing where the highest rainfall totals will concentrate is not possible yet.

 

 

 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/02/caribbean-system-may-become-tropical-storm-karen-and-affect-gulf-and-east-coasts/

 

Looks like some oil companies are already taking precautions:

 

 

A looming low-pressure storm system prompted BP Plc to evacuate workers not essential for production from its four oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico but output was unaffected, the company said on Wednesday. Other operators, including Royal Dutch Shell, the biggest oil producer in the Gulf, Anadarko Petroleum Corp and Hess Corp, said they were monitoring the storm but had not begun evacuations. A Pemex spokesperson said the company was closely monitoring the forming storm, but it had not ordered any offshore or onshore evacuations at any installations.

 

The Mexican government said late on Wednesday it expected between 3 to 6 inches of rain along its Yucatan peninsula in addition to heavy rain in Gulf coast Veracruz and Campeche states, closer to the country's major oil installations.

 

The unnamed system had a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and was expected to cross the Yucatan and move into the southern Gulf by Thursday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. About 80 percent of Mexico's oil and gas production comes from mostly shallow-water offshore fields in the potential path of the low pressure system, along the southern rim of the Gulf. BP, the second-largest oil producer in the Gulf, said workers not essential to production, such as cooks and maids, were being evacuated from its four platforms in the most energy-infrastructure-heavy areas of the Gulf. "With forecasts indicating the disturbance could possibly strengthen into a tropical storm and move across the central Gulf of Mexico, we are now taking additional steps to respond," the company said.

 

The four BP platforms have a total capacity of 640,000 barrels per day of oil and 840 million cubic feet per day of natural gas. They include Thunder Horse, the largest oil and gas platform in the world, as well as Atlantis, Na Kika and Mad Dog.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/us-gulf-storm-energy-idUKBRE99202R20131003

[mezzacyclone]

recon in now, measured 63knots/72.4mph Flight lev winds 100 mile NNW of Cancun,

I offer we can say Karen is a given with a NHC special adv imminent?

[summer blizzard]

Holy crap, this thing is bombing. It'll be a 60mph TS at its first advisory with hurricane watches issued.

 

Scratch that, NHC have declared it TS Karen. A special advisory will be issued within the hour.

 

Score for the GFS.

[summer blizzard]

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO
60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  

[summer blizzard]

[mezzacyclone]

what we got then SB?
lookin the best all season so far but what effects will the trough have?
Late sunday 999mb cat 1 SW of panama city on last GFS run so we`ll see if they re-draw much.
seems to have slowed but forming better and swelling size although reps of far west outflow fading out are not valid AFAIK?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-animated.gif
special adv hot of the press btw > clicker

Edited October 3, 2013 by mezzacyclone

[summer blizzard]

A bit bearish from the NHC in terms of intensity, especially given its rather rapid formation. With that said there is a shear axis and dry air so they'll probably be right although it's possible that we could see the outflow win the battle.

[Coast]

She's on her way!

 

 

Thursday, October 3, 2013 08:42AM EDT - "Home Grown" TS Karen

 

Good morning all!

 

Well, she took her good old time getting it together but "home grown" TS Karen, formerly known as 97L, has finally been spawned in the SW Caribbean and is headed for the an ultimate showdown with the Gulf Coast because, after all, when it gets in the GOM, it has to hit land somewhere.

 

Skipping depression status, Karen is experiencing good ventilation with low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. That's the plus side for her. The downside is dry air entraining into the storm and passage over the western part of Cuba and the Yucatan which will slow down her intensification efforts. Definitely, a ying and a yang. Wind shear is expected to increase in the next 48 hours as well providing further hindrance.

 

Current forecast track show a cold front and trough of low pressure approaching the system Friday/Saturday which should turn Karen more towards the NE and on a collision course for the Fla Panhandle. Due to the obvious unpredictability of a caged animal, Karen can strike anywhere from the upper Texas coast to the Big Bend region of Florida which means New Orleans as well. We will have to see further model runs and data from the hurricane hunters to get a better grip on Karens intentions. 

 

Intensity forecasts do not subscribe to Karen obtaining hurricane status but I believe she can reach Cat 1 before landfall. Unless the wind shear intensifies, those very warm, almost thermally congenial waters, will do their duty and fire up the engine that Karen is now feeding off of.

 

 

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/report.php?id=1380804140_22641

[Somerset Squall]

So we have Karen! Winds are at 55kts presently. The convection looked very impressive this afternoon, but shear is already taking it's toll on Karen this evening, as the LLCC is exposed to view as the convection has been sheared eastwards. NHC forecast some modest intensification to hurricane status as Karen moves further into the Gulf Of Mexico (GOM), and with the dry air over the western GOM and the less than ideal uppper level winds, modest intensification might well be all Karen can muster. Landfall is still open to question, but Karen could well be a significant tropical storm at least at landfall so it needs watching.

 

[mezzacyclone]

recon heading SE into the system are putting up much weaker numbers to match the lower water vapour imagery we are seeing along with a clear degrading of TS Karen,
Maybe ingested dry air to the west as possible cause but the original higher shear value forecast looks less a threat than initially to me inspite of us in Oct now (click) so we may see her get together again after D-min? Intensity still looks concentrated nearer western Cuba with dissipation and weakening on its western elongated flank.
Maybe hot towers throwing up east off Cancun coastline on the latest floater imagery? here
,,,,1002.6mb near centre 80 mile N of Yucatan far N coast @ Rio lagartos,,,,

*upd* 1001.7mb 10 mile NE of previous mark,

Interesting point if its plausible shear has forced convection E & N giving false weakening appearance as pressure is still falling?

everything seems to be changing by the minute with this one?

Edited October 3, 2013 by mezzacyclone

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Karen is expected to strengthen as it moves across open Gulf of Mexico waters, possibly threatening the Florida Panhandle over the weekend.

 

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Karen, with top sustained winds of 65 mph, could reach hurricane strength before making landfall. Hurricane watches were posted from Grand Isle, La., to Indian Pass in Gulf County west of Tallahassee. “The official track brings Karen toward the Gulf Coast through early Sunday morning,†said Jeff Evans, warning-coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. “Expected landfall right now is from southern Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle. However ... we could expect hurricane conditions anywhere in the watch area.â€

 

At 2 p.m., Karen was located in the Gulf of Mexico about 430 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and packing stop sustained winds of 65 mph. It was moving north-northwest about 12 mph, though its forward speed was expected to decrease over the next couple of days. At a minimum, Karen is expected to bring increased rain chances to the Tallahassee area. But it’s too early to tell whether it will rain out weekend plans or Saturday’s noon football game at Doak Campbell Stadium. In a Thursday afternoon tweet through @FSUAlert, Florida State University officials said it appeared Karen “will have a minimal impact†on the game, though that was subject to change with new forecasts.

 

By USA Today

 

Tropical Storm Karen has formed in the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center reported Thursday morning, becoming the 11th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. As of 11 a.m. ET, the storm had winds of 65 mph. It was located about 485 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and was moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph. There is a chance Karen becomes a hurricane before making landfall, reports AccuWeather. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph.The storm should make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast by Saturday night.

 

Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been posted for the U.S. Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana. A hurricane watch is in effect from Grand Isle, La., to Indian Pass, Fla., while a tropical storm watch is in effect for metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas, as well as the Gulf Coast from west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, La. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, while a tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions could occur. Rainfall totals of from 4 to 8 inches can be expected to the east of where the storm makes landfall, reports meteorologist Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground. Some minor coastal flooding is also possible. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds are along the coast from Buras, La., to Pensacola, Fla. "Wind gusts in the neighborhood of 60 mph can cause minor property damage, downed trees and power outages," reports AccuWeather meteorologist Michael Doll. Preparations are already underway in Florida: Pensacola Beach Public Safety Director Bob West said lifeguard towers and trash cans will be removed from the beach and secured at some point today or tomorrow.

 

 

 

http://www.tallahassee.com/article/20131003/NEWS/131003001/

 

[Somerset Squall]

Karen continues to get battered by both shear and dry air, and has weakened since it formed. Winds are down to 35kts. The LLCC is often exposed to view, and the majority of the convection remains well east of this centre. Karen is expected to brush Louisiana but ulltimately make landfall on the Florida Panhandle, but should be no more than a moderate tropical storm at landfall, unless shear lets up.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

Tropical Storm KAREN: Probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

[Somerset Squall]

A state of emergency has been declared in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida.

 

For what exactly? This?

 

 

 

 

LMAO!!! I really have seen it all now

 

[Coast]

A state of emergency has been declared in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida.

 

For what exactly? 

 

 

Tropical Storm Karen drops to a depression off U.S. Gulf coast

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/06/uk-storm-karen-idUKBRE99501L20131006

[Somerset Squall]

For what it's worth, Karen has dissipated before landfall. Another victim to the hostile Atlantic! This year has been so strange! I can't believe there has only been 2 hurricanes and the strongest storm of the year (so far) was only a cat 1!

[Coast]

This year has been so strange! I can't believe there has only been 2 hurricanes and the strongest storm of the year (so far) was only a cat 1!

 

It has been odd for sure.