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South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I thought you were writing a poem right there.

Me a poet, b'ah, I wouldn't know it. :)

AWD/SWW, What do you make of the sudden turnaround in the model output?

Mmmmm........ The same as everybody else. Whaaaa!!!!! Woah!!!!!! Pfffffftttt!!!!In all seriousness, I could tell you why the model output has changed, but I couldn't tell you why it wasn't picked up upon earlier.It's all down to developments the otherside of the Atlantic, as ever. With the ever steeping thermal gradient this time of year, storm/LP development is rife. Over towards the Eastern Seaboard a LP system is developing and the path this is forecast to take isn't via the usual PFJ route. It's expected to head SE, away from northern latitudes and down into mid latitude airspace, as shown circled below;post-12721-0-49671200-1381050124_thumb.jAs we know, the airflow is anticlockwise around LP. This therefore drags warmer air amongst the high pressure cell north on the LP's eastern flank, pulling the HP that is currently over or near us now north, over much of the UK, eventually resting to the NE of the LP system, NW of the UK;post-12721-0-49711100-1381050266_thumb.jNow, previously the HP was modelled to flow to our east, south east. With the airflow around HP flowing clockwise, this would have produced a warm, tropical continental flow over the UK, hence the warm and settled outlook a few days ago;post-12721-0-20640800-1381050396_thumb.jNow because the LP in the mid Atlantic is dragging the HP north now instead, this opens a gap to our east over Scandinavia, for a trough to drop down from the north, as circled in purple above. With HP just to our west and LP to our east, we have a cool northerly flow. How much of an affect it will have on our part of the world remains to be seen, although obviously, it will be cooler than of late.With the trough dropping south into Scandinavia and then into mainland Europe. This then allows the HP to ridge to our east/north east, where it initially wanted to go, just some 500 miles further south;post-12721-0-88770100-1381050661_thumb.jI'm sceptical as to how close the trough over in Europe by next weekend will get to us. With a trough to our east and a trough to our west, the UK is essentially stuck in no mans land (although away from the far SE and far NW, more settled than unsettled. For most, if not all of our region, I see no rainfall apart from the odd shower here and there, this week. Cloudcover at times yes, but essentially a dry week ahead.Members like Mullender especially, have the chance of a few frosts later in the week though with some cold night time temperatures likely.So to answer you question, essentially the pattern is pretty similiar, just 520 miles further north than shown a few days ago. Therefore leaving us on the cold side of the HP, rather than the warm side.
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

 

 


Me a poet, b'ah, I wouldn't know it. Posted Image


Mmmmm........ The same as everybody else. Whaaaa!!!!! Woah!!!!!! Pfffffftttt!!!!

In all seriousness, I could tell you why the model output has changed, but I couldn't tell you why it wasn't picked up upon earlier.

It's all down to developments the otherside of the Atlantic, as ever. With the ever steeping thermal gradient this time of year, storm/LP development is rife. Over towards the Eastern Seaboard a LP system is developing and the path this is forecast to take isn't via the usual PFJ route. It's expected to head SE, away from northern latitudes and down into mid latitude airspace, as shown circled below;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

As we know, the airflow is anticlockwise around LP. This therefore drags warmer air amongst the high pressure cell north on the LP's eastern flank, pulling the HP that is currently over or near us now north, over much of the UK, eventually resting to the NE of the LP system, NW of the UK;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Now, previously the HP was modelled to flow to our east, south east. With the airflow around HP flowing clockwise, this would have produced a warm, tropical continental flow over the UK, hence the warm and settled outlook a few days ago;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Now because the LP in the mid Atlantic is dragging the HP north now instead, this opens a gap to our east over Scandinavia, for a trough to drop down from the north, as circled in purple above. With HP just to our west and LP to our east, we have a cool northerly flow. How much of an affect it will have on our part of the world remains to be seen, although obviously, it will be cooler than of late.

With the trough dropping south into Scandinavia and then into mainland Europe. This then allows the HP to ridge to our east/north east, where it initially wanted to go, just some 500 miles further south;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

I'm sceptical as to how close the trough over in Europe by next weekend will get to us. With a trough to our east and a trough to our west, the UK is essentially stuck in no mans land (although away from the far SE and far NW, more settled than unsettled. For most, if not all of our region, I see no rainfall apart from the odd shower here and there, this week. Cloudcover at times yes, but essentially a dry week ahead.

Members like Mullender especially, have the chance of a few frosts later in the week though with some cold night time temperatures likely.

So to answer you question, essentially the pattern is pretty similiar, just 520 miles further north than shown a few days ago. Therefore leaving us on the cold side of the HP, rather than the warm side.

 

You, young man, are a star. Posted Image  We need more of these types of posts in the MOD thread IMHO. They would greatly assist in understanding when, where and how certain circumstances change from what were the original projected scenarios envisioned by the various model outputs.

 

Cheers mate.

 

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Fantastic to sit outside for several hours today for lunch and fun with family. Actually indoors taking a break from the sunshine at the moment !... On October 6th!

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Grand Day Out... in was okay as well. 16.6c.. Sun still out amongst the thin cloud.

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Posted
  • Location: Corfe Mullen, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warm hot summer days
  • Location: Corfe Mullen, Dorset

Max temp today18,4C and still 14.4C A lovely sunny day once the mist cleared and looking forward to same again tomorrow. Not bad for October.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Fantastic to sit outside for several hours today for lunch and fun with family. Actually indoors taking a break from the sunshine at the moment !... On October 6th!

Wasn't it just.. So lovely. Will miss that warmth for 6 months now of the models do what they are now hinting at.. Damn you Hp. But you say October 6th .... I do believe it was the same around 2011. I remember why well.. ( think it was the 6th or 4th .. May have been 28th.. But then temps were up to 28 degrees that day.. ) :)
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Guest William Grimsley

After dew melt at 08:04, it was dry, breezy and mild yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.2 mm 08:04 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.2 mm High Wind Gust Yesterday: 9 mph 14:07 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 6 mph 14:08 High Temperature Yesterday: 18.2°C 12:44.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Lovely looking models on display for next week or so it is just a shame we couldn't hang on a month as it is a little wasted this early and it could all go the way of the pear by the time winter proper arrives Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Good sunny day now the fog has gone..18.5c. Slim chance that will be reached again this week. Will have to wait until next Tuesday to reach the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Wasn't it just.. So lovely. Will miss that warmth for 6 months now of the models do what they are now hinting at.. Damn you Hp. But you say October 6th .... I do believe it was the same around 2011. I remember why well.. ( think it was the 6th or 4th .. May have been 28th.. But then temps were up to 28 degrees that day.. ) Posted Image

Yes it was the first few days of that month but I recall the sun being more hazy than yesterday pm which was full on strong sun.

 

It's actually warmer today than yesterday, just nudged above 20c with sunny spells after a misty/foggy start.

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

Been overcast here all day the cloud is just breaking up now and just starting to see the sun! Still very mild just how I like it until winter when I want snow, lol. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Corfe Mullen, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warm hot summer days
  • Location: Corfe Mullen, Dorset

Some sunny periods before lunch but now completely clouded over.

Max temp so far today 17.5C currently 17.1 C. Getting windy

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Cloud has now hidden the sun. Still a good 17.7c. Light breeze of 1.1 km/h.

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Posted
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.

At home, the mist and murk cleared and gave sunny spells, so we went to West Bexington this afternoon....wrong move!  All the mist and murk was still there on the coast, even producing the odd spot of drizzle.

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

Gone very dark here in the past few minutes think there might be some rain on the way!

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Hi everyone, have you missed me?! What a fab summer we have all had. Loved every moment of it. Things are looking very interesting on the model front, so I'm back for the winter season. Hope everyone is ok.

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Guest William Grimsley

After some dew melt at 03:07, it was a mild, breezy, dry and sunny day yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.2 mm 03:07 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.2 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 17.8°C 15:58 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 12 mph 16:11 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 7 mph 16:12.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Interesting day so far with patchy low cloud clearing to warm sunshine between 08.00 - 12.00 which again boosted the temperature above 19c, but an increase in low cloud again now as the weak Cold Front drifts down from the NW. I'm wondering if the day will remain dry as most of the rain has died out.

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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

Hi everyone, have you missed me?! What a fab summer we have all had. Loved every moment of it. Things are looking very interesting on the model front, so I'm back for the winter season. Hope everyone is ok.

 

T'is a lovely place to call home there khodds. We were camping in North Wootton, a couple of weeks ago. Cracking walk into Wells on the Saturday.

 

Interesting day so far with patchy low cloud clearing to warm sunshine between 08.00 - 12.00 which again boosted the temperature above 19c, but an increase in low cloud again now as the weak Cold Front drifts down from the NW. I'm wondering if the day will remain dry as most of the rain has died out.

 

Nope, raining. Just as I've finished work and about to step out of the door.

 

Damp walk it is then.

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

18.0c Highest today. Broken Cloud. Temperature 16.6c. Now...

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I see the MOD thread is slowly descending into it's usual winter mode! :);)

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