Convective / Storm Discussion - 4th October onwards 2013

[MP-R]

The BBC thundery shower was actually shown yesterday for both weekend days in the West Country but has now disappeared.

[Summer Sun]

The met office have issued a yellow rain warning for; Angus, Perth and Kinross

 

Issued at: 1046 on Thu 17 Oct 2013

 

Valid from: 0005 on Sat 19 Oct 2013

 

Valid to: 2300 on Sat 19 Oct 2013

 

Rain arriving later on Friday will turn heavy and persistent on Saturday over parts of Tayside and Angus. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Warm, moisture laden air from the south will meet cold air to the north, generating an active frontal system later on Friday and into Saturday. Rainfall will be enhanced by air rising up southeast facing slopes in the strong flow, with over 40 mm of rain in places, and the potential for locally more than 60 mm in higher river catchments. This is likely to give enhanced river levels within, and downstream of, the wettest areas.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ta&fcTime=1382137200

[Coast]

 

[Mapantz]

I was just having a peep at a few of those charts, although Sunday is a way off, -50 ELT's are showing up around Western coasts/South West & parts of the South coast, while not rare, you don't often see temps aloft that cold, that's why i love this time of year when low pressure isn't too far away, i always seem to stand a better chance of getting a few thundery downpours in these setups than i do during the Summer.  

[Coast]

Outlook looks good for southern coastal regions (as well as places near to western and southwestern UK coasts), Coast... particularly toward the latter half of Saturday and into Sunday.

 

GFS had it a little too offshore again for my liking this morning, but I'll have another look tomorrow when things start firming up a bit.

[poseidon]

 

 

 

 

 

NAE seems to show some heavy'ish precip coming up from France during Sat morning....

 

[dave48]

Have to admit I was caught out by the big storms we had here at the start of the month so will be keeping a closer eye on this. As has already been mentioned, the paramaters are good, especially for so late in the season.

 

This has been a decent year for 'plume type' set ups. It must be about 4 that I saw over in Tunbridge Wells before I moved back over here. 3 of those produced decent storms.

[Mark Neal.]

A picture on twitter of Liverpool last night during lightning. Lightning seems to hit the big wheel

[Summer Sun]

Met Eireann (Irish Met office) have a status yellow out for 25 to 50 mm highest totals over east and south Leinster and south Munster.

 

It certainly looks a wet old day for all of Ireland tomorrow but this transfers to Scotland on Saturday where we could have some flooding issues

[IanR]

If I had known that storm was going on in LIverpool I would have easily seen the bright lightning over to the west of here, but I was watching TV at the time with the curtains closed and unaware, damn it,

 

should have gone on netweather  instead

[Coast]

ESTOFEX for today:

 

 

Storm ForecastValid: Fri 18 Oct 2013 06:00 to Sat 19 Oct 2013 06:00 UTCIssued: Thu 17 Oct 2013 20:40Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

 

High pressure over most of central Europe and cool/cold and dry continental air over NE/E Europe keeps thunderstorm probabilities low. Mainly offshore/coastal areas of the Norwegian and Baltic Sea will see isolated and weakly electrified thunderstorm chances.An E-Atlantic low advects a modified subtropical air mass far north. Meager lapse rates but modest SBCAPE should result in isolated to scattered storms from Portugal to Ireland. Heavy rain will be the main hazard with elevated clusters. Any surface based storm would also pose a strong wind gust risk (e.g. S-Ireland and W-Portugal).

 

 

[Nick F]

An interesting weekend coming up wrt storm potential - especially across southern and western areas - with the greatest risk towards coasts in these areas. An unstable and rather moist rPm southwesterly flow moves in behind a cold front moving east tonight, GFS painting alot of greens on the CAPE charts across England and Wales in particular on Saturday and especially on Sunday. Though it's questionable that such high CAPE values will extend so far inland - given instability will be tied in with increasingly cold air aloft moving over seas still warm from the summer, but if storms can organise enough - they may move well inland.

 

Jet stream remains close to Sern Britain which will bring a few shortwaves and dry air intrusions NE which will enhance deep convection. And we're at the time of year now when tornadoes/waterspouts are at their highest frequency - particularly along coastal areas - so plenty to talk about over the next few days.

Edited October 18, 2013 by Nick F

[VillagePlank]

Sunday looks like the favoured day for widespread action,

 

 

Here's Heathrow's forecast skew-t,

 

[Coast]

GFS not looking too bad over the South coast tomorrow early night:

 

Edited October 18, 2013 by Coast

[Bluebreezer54]

GFS not looking too bad over the South coast tomorrow early night:

 

The Hasting Bonfire and Firework parade and display could see some competition from Mother Nature if that comes off Robin.

 

There does seem to be a general concensous that the South Coast could be a favoured location this weekend, particularly Saturday.

[Coast]

The Hasting Bonfire and Firework parade and display could see some competition from Mother Nature if that comes off Robin.

 

There does seem to be a general concensous that the South Coast could be a favoured location this weekend, particularly Saturday.

 

We'll get a light display one way or another!

[Mapantz]

The NAE and UKMO seem to be modelling a Kent-clipper scenario, the WRF models it coming in from around the IoW > East and moving North East, so the South East could well see some thundery downpours. Sadly, i think i'm stuck in no mans land again, it'll just be a radar watch from my point of view.

[Coast]

Just playing around with some NMM charts from Netweather extra and watch the SB CAPE and Li across the South and then specifically the South coast through tomorrow:

 

[Coast]

TT Index does concur on the general area:

 

 

 

[Coast]

Met O also looking good in the South:

 

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&fcTime=1382173200&map=SignificantWeather&zoom=8&lon=-0.08&lat=51.51

[Coast]

GFS shear coming up The Channel:

 

 

and MCS Propagation:

 

 

Convective rain as well:

 

 

First front through during the morning then the second in the afternoon?

 

[Supacell]

I am moving house so cannot get easy access to charts. I am free to storm chase on Sunday but i am now hearing a lot of talk about Sat and not Sun. Could someone fill me in on whether Sunday is still looking good please.

[Guest William Grimsley]

ESTOFEX for today:

Bang on! Lovely!

[Convective]

Estofex seem to think there will be a rather large duck hanging around coastal areas tomorrow.......

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Estofex seem to think there will be a rather large duck hanging around coastal areas tomorrow.......

 

Looking good!