scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Buriedundersnow]

No longer for me, we moved in August, now only at about 75m asl in the shadow of hills rather than on them. I have no idea what it's going to be like here for snow, but I'm pretty sure it won't be anything like it was last winter

 

 

you might be ok I know a few people down galashiels and kelso way that have talked about taking a good pasting from snow

[Hairy Celt]

No longer for me, we moved in August, now only at about 75m asl in the shadow of hills rather than on them. I have no idea what it's going to be like here for snow, but I'm pretty sure it won't be anything like it was last winter

 

75m? bloddy hell, that's thrice my height & you're complaining!  As for what I'd like, enough to bury the neighbours get some decent sledging on the hill here. Chances? 50% at best.

[lorenzo]

Heading along to this in Edinburgh tomorrow to find out the latest information on how the MJO is being used by the ECMWF folks with respect to medium range forecasting. Will report back if I manage to glean anything about the forthcoming Winter..

 

http://www.rmets.org/events/madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-importance-medium-range-forecasting

[Cheggers]

Well I was hoping to give you all a report of nice weather fir Sherwood Forest, but Renault had other idea's  .... so in my view it has been a pish day all round!!!

 

For those getting excited by the Daily Fail and the Daily (we talk guff) Express... the gospel according to the Met.. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/12/winter-forecasting-responding-to-the-headlines/

 

BUS, I am with HC there.... bury the neighbours get some decent sledging on the hill.  .

[LomondSnowstorm]

Heading along to this in Edinburgh tomorrow to find out the latest information on how the MJO is being used by the ECMWF folks with respect to medium range forecasting. Will report back if I manage to glean anything about the forthcoming Winter..

 

http://www.rmets.org/events/madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-importance-medium-range-forecasting

 

Great minds think alike, I got an email about this from my Meteorology lecturer so I'll see yourself and maybe some other east-central based forum regulars there as well

Things are shaping up nicely for this winter (or at least they were until Jonathan Powell decided to start an ill informed early rampede worthy of the MT ) and if you haven't already you should head over to the shiny new 2013/14 strat thread where Chiono has started with a fantastic explanation of the relevance of the strat along with his two cents on where this winter is likely to head. He and GP were very early in picking up the early January SSW last winter and he's also noted a tendency among his composites for 'split' (a la February 2009) SSWs in late January to early February. I'm personally hedging my bets on composites until near the end of the month when we can get a read for the all important October eurasian snow cover gain. So far it's looking fairly promising, with the snow cover anomaly positive across great swathes of the northern Eurasian continent and has expanded westwards quite rapidly since the start of the month, with even a somewhat unseasonable snowfall across southern Bavaria, Austria and Switzerland (although snowfall in the Alps in October isn't that much of a rarity the depth and altitude it reached were rather impressive).

[NorthernRab]

75m? bloddy hell, that's thrice my height & you're complaining!  As for what I'd like, enough to bury the neighbours get some decent sledging on the hill here. Chances? 50% at best.

 

You know what you could do, move to the Aird rather than the Black Isle! 

[Hairy Celt]

You know what you could do, move to the Aird rather than the Black Isle! 

I was over by Kiltarlity early one morning recently, left home with 8C, was 3C at Kilt. So yeah for the snow, but no for growing tomatoes or a sensible heating bill!

[Buriedundersnow]

snow starting to show on the traffic cams in Lapland long may it continue and push further west

 

[Cheggers]

Not a bad day, but cracking sunset to end. Rain on the way now till weekend by the looks of it.

 

SS, Backyard carpet looking very nice for the time of year. 

[Cheggers]

Wow.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-24532979

[lorenzo]

Great Result for Scotland V Croatia. (will just ignore the fact it was a meaningless fixture..) Team have definitely moved forward.

Nice find Cheggers, amazing pic. Hopefully Comet ISON survives it's sun grazing and produces a great show for Winter, ISS also on a very bright pass tonight.

 

Feeling much colder this evening under clear skies. MJO lecture was informative and hopefully will get sent a copy to share on here, not too much insight into Winter 13/14 though, more along the lines of this is what we can see it does in European Winter and also looking at how they are trying to improve it's representation within the ECM model.

 

Atlantic gearing up to the 'actually being there' phase versus completely dormant. Should provide some interest via good radar and satellite watching. Nothing as spectacular as this thankfully though.. Typhoon Wipha.

 

Oshima has received 22.7 Inches of rain http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon-wipha-aims-to-batter-t/18839653

 

Edit - Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

12m

"@metofficestorms: Typhoon #Wipha drenching southern Japan. 788mm (31") rain in the last 18 hours on Oshima island south of Tokyo."

 

 

Back home Loch Morlich looking bonny but very eery today from this Pic on the Fbook page.

Edited October 15, 2013 by lorenzo

[Hairy Celt]

Wow.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-24532979

Not quite as dramatic but was a bit unusual so...

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! Another crystal clear morning up here, but I fear it may be the last for a wee while. Pity, the night sky was just stunning.

[lorenzo]

Atlantic washing machine inbound....

 

Pity, as everything looked glorious out West to start the day.

 

Forecast - Drookit, looks like Fife gets the bulk of the rainfall sustained from around 1600 - 2100.

 

 

 

 

[mardatha]

Awesome Lorenzo. You should be on telly    Ten minutes of faffing aboot isobars reduced to one word LOL

[over_the_rainbow]

Will be keeping an eye on the rain radar later - looks hefty in across Ireland at the mo.

[Cheggers]

Grey day so far, wind now starting to pick up. Just back from a bracing walk along Greenhill Junction. We now await the wet stuff...

[over_the_rainbow]

yep rain has landed - temp 10C. 

[Buriedundersnow]

posted by matt hugo on twitter

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 6m

EC seasonal update for Oct indicates higher than average pressure to the N of the UK for Dec/Jan/Feb, a consistent signal from past months.

 

also

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 5m

EUROSIP showing something similar. Weak signal for higher than average pressure to the NW and lower to the S and SE. Blocked pattern.

[Ross B]

posted by matt hugo on twitterMatthew Hugo â€@Matt Hughes 18th 6mEC seasonal update for Oct indicates higher than average pressure to the N of the UK for Dec/Jan/Feb, a consistent signal from past months.alsoMatthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 5mEUROSIP showing something similar. Weak signal for higher than average pressure to the NW and lower to the S and SE. Blocked pattern.

I'll be out of the country for much of December, prepare for the snowiest month on record!Hammering it down with rain at the mo, lovely! Edited October 16, 2013 by Ross B

[Hairy Celt]

Damp dreich and dull this morning... The hill colours are at their best just now so a couple of sunny days would do nicely.

 

Finally done with tomatoes, with the best crop for a decade.  I never weigh them - would be a bit tricky as I think quite a lot disappear 'surreptitiously' - but I would guess twice as many as the last two years, and much tastier.

[tempestwatch]

Horrible wet wet wet morning driving from Lochgelly to Alloa. Lots of surface water. I woke up in the night to hear the rain pounding on the dormer bedroom roof, didnt disturb my wifes snoring though lol

Hope Mtahew Hugo is proved correct and we get a very snowy December!

[DR(S)NO]

Horrible wet wet wet morning driving from Lochgelly to Alloa. Lots of surface water. I woke up in the night to hear the rain pounding on the dormer bedroom roof, didnt disturb my wifes snoring though lolHope Mtahew Hugo is proved correct and we get a very snowy December!

[Hairy Celt]

...I woke up in the night to hear the rain pounding on the dormer bedroom roof, didnt disturb my wifes snoring though lol...

 

Yeah I know that one: you wake up cos of the rain hammering down and get caught by the double whammy of the rain and the jack-hammer snoring so takes forever to get back to sleep!

 

In the morning: 

 

'You're a bit grumpy this morning darling, didn't you sleep properly?'

 

'Fzagrmph blgrwnsk...'

[Buriedundersnow]

snow falling in Sweden today