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What If? It was the coldest winter in history?


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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

The difference between the UK and countries that have severe winters as the norm is that their infastruction is geared up to it and that heating and power are treated as as an essential service rather than a luxury as ours has become.

Profits for the power companies and taxes for HM government will always tak priority in our country and the failings of this system will only be clear if we do have a lengthy and severe winter.

As for the provision of food; our just in time psychology will be the undoing of us in such circumstances as few people carry stocked cupboards any more although fortunately for me, i still maintain the idea of having at least a good supply of tinned foods.

Not a case of waiting for armageddon but just the way I was brought up and a dislike of shopping on a dail basis.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Think many are missing the fact that "back then" many people still had open fires and would stock up for winter with coal and wood etc anyway, lighting was not provided solely by gas or electric as many homes still used oil lamps and had parafin heaters,  modern homes would be dependant on the supply grid, and as for food, many grew and stocked their own so again the supply chain would be put under duress very quickly.

 

I would not like to have to endure a long drawn out winter such as being mooted, such an event would bring misery and chaos as the number of people around in the past was far less than it is now, so any contingency would have to be on such a massive scale it would become something difficult for any government to prepare for adequately.

 

No money, no food, how long would the "spirit" last when more and more people get desperate?

 

 

Doom I say!

Good post I was going to post something similar about having coal fires etc where as now if we

did run out of gas and electricity in such a winter than the situation would become very bad very

quickly.Also one of the coldest winters on record would mean a brutal cold winter for much of

northern Europe I would imagine.

Water pipes would freeze with no heating and a good point by  Weather History is that if the winter

was also very snowy then conditions would be far more severe with the transport network in chaos.

In cold countries especially America and Canada most homes have snow blowers where as here

you would not be able to get your vechicles from the side roads onto the main ones even if the

main ones were plowed.

Shipping would be disrupted since we are talking about one of the coldest winters on record then

as I recall the winter of 1683/84 or one of simiar severity the channel froze from 5 miles either side

of England and France.

Life would be very hard on everyone but without gas and electricity then I would imagine

you would have a national state of emergency and severe living conditions.

We are like chalk and cheese compared to the people that endured during the 16th and 17th

centuries.

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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

That's the point, Siberian levels of cold simply isn't obtainable in the UK, even In an ice age. Half the country didn't die in 47' or 63', so why would they now with our immeasurably more comfortable existance nowadays? The coldest winter we could get here would probably match an average Lithuanian winter, for example, and as far as I'm aware Eastern Europe doesn't bury half it's population every March.Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that it would be pretty and that there wouldn't be far more winter excess deaths, I just don't subscribe to the apocalypse scenario.

Well to be honest I think it is possible for us to be subzero for three months which is a st anthony style winter. Not a lithuanian winter.
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Posted
  • Location: Sydenham/Crystal Palace London
  • Location: Sydenham/Crystal Palace London

Talk about melodramatic...

 

We'd be OK for the most part I think. The first few snowfalls would cause a headache, but after the initial disruption, we'd return to normality pretty quickly. It's only the first few snowfalls that cause problems - as long as it doesn't snow every day, there would be plenty of time for local authorities to clear snow. As for the cold - I don't buy into all of this talk of gas supplies running out. It strikes me as sensationalist nonsense. Issues would still persist though since many people simply can't afford to heat their home, but millions dying? A major population cull? Utter, utter tripe.

 

 

 

Surely using 1740 as an example is a bit pointless given that it was a completely different time and with different capabilities. The comparison is automatically invalid IMO. 1962/3 was one of the coldest winters on record, so is a better example of how we'd cope with a very cold winter, since it was more recent.

 

The heading was the coldest winter on record not what if we had 62/63 again.

 

Back then homes all had an open fire so something could be burned to keep warm, but that's not the case now. Families lived nearby each other, often several generations in one home as parents were put in oap homes so fuel and food was shared.

 

Canada still has deaths from winter every year around 5000 as an average which is a lot lower than what we have each year. And because they get cold winters every year the whole country is capable of running normally because it happens every year.

 

In the UK providing rural dwellings have a good store cupboard the they would cope better than city dwellers as many have back up generators, wood burners, etc Town dwellers are a different matter, flats are lucky if you have somewhere to put a broom never mind a food store, transport would grind to a halt due to lack of fuel, hospitals close as staff won't be able to get in etc etc.

 

Hypothermia can start at 12c for someone of poor health and older, that will lead to a stroke and as ambulances can't get through in deep snow, then death.

A lengthy spell at 8c can cause it in younger people.

Hypothermia is a silent killer because you don't notice it happening. 

 

It is often younger people who didn't experience 62/63 that seem to wish for harsh weather but often without thinking of the consequences for others. Few adults who did experience 62/63 would wish  to go through it again given a choice.

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Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.

How is including the winter of 63' pointless? It was the third coldest winter on record. The coldest UK winter on record wouldn't be drastically colder than that. 1740 was only marginally colder.

Well i read it was subzero for like two months.
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

How is including the winter of 63' pointless? It was the third coldest winter on record. The coldest UK winter on record wouldn't be drastically colder than that. 1740 was only marginally colder.

Winter 1683-84 was even colder than that according to the CET, -1.2C
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Circulation of the Daily Express might be severely curtailed - lowest figures in history? See, every cloud does have a silver lining!Posted Image

Edited by A Boy Named Sue
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

 

I would add that surely using the winter of 62/63 is  bit pointless given the thread is titled "the coldest winter on record"

Hence the winter could be much worse, in fact it would have to beat the winter of 1740 which caused chaos and resulted in a huge famine in Ireland.

 

 

I expect in the worst case scenario with food is it would just become rationed out which might be a good thing with 35% of the UK population overweight or obese... Posted Image

 

Hey at least we could all turn our fridge freezers off to save power Posted Image  We sometimes store chilled goods in outhouse in colder spells of winter now.

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Posted
  • Location: oxford
  • Location: oxford

This current time i would assume the gulf stream would have to be nullafied to some extent as we are further north than new york they get exteme cold at times but we are a island, weather as a rule comes west to east over the water that's warmer...

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I don't think wanting a winter like that is "selfish" but in some cases "naive" could be a fair description, if the individual's perception of how large the negative impacts will be, and the reality, mismatch considerably and leave the individual thinking, "I wouldn't have wished for this if I'd realised how bad it would be!" 

 

I actually think that the main problems would set in during the latter part of the winter.  In November/December 2010 we had the usual disruption to transport but for the most part power and food supplies continued, helped by the temporary thaw around the 10th-15th December, but there were concerns that if the severity of cold continued through January we could see the freezing level penetrating well below the surface and killing off the National Grid.  As a country, we can largely cope with 4-6 weeks of severe cold and some of us can enjoy it, but 10-12 weeks of severe cold might be a very different story.

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

If it was the coldest winter in history it would lead to a population cull of the elderly, very young, sick, and anyone who has an average income as they wouldn't be able to afford the heating bills.

 

 

So what? It's called natural selection.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

 

 

The heading was the coldest winter on record not what if we had 62/63 again.

 

 

Back then homes all had an open fire so something could be burned to keep warm, but that's not the case now. Families lived nearby each other, often several generations in one home as parents were put in oap homes so fuel and food was shared.

 

Canada still has deaths from winter every year around 5000 as an average which is a lot lower than what we have each year. And because they get cold winters every year the whole country is capable of running normally because it happens every year.

 

In the UK providing rural dwellings have a good store cupboard the they would cope better than city dwellers as many have back up generators, wood burners, etc Town dwellers are a different matter, flats are lucky if you have somewhere to put a broom never mind a food store, transport would grind to a halt due to lack of fuel, hospitals close as staff won't be able to get in etc etc.

 

Hypothermia can start at 12c for someone of poor health and older, that will lead to a stroke and as ambulances can't get through in deep snow, then death.

A lengthy spell at 8c can cause it in younger people.

Hypothermia is a silent killer because you don't notice it happening. 

 

It is often younger people who didn't experience 62/63 that seem to wish for harsh weather but often without thinking of the consequences for others. Few adults who did experience 62/63 would wish  to go through it again given a choice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, but, as MB mentioned, it was the third coldest, and it occurred more recently. 1740 was too long ago to draw valid comparisons. Things are significantly different even compared to 20 years ago let alone 273 years ago.

 

I'm aware that many more homes had gas or oil fires, but I'm saying that talks of gas supplies running out and a mass cull of the population (!!) are far-fetched and unfounded, based entirely on speculation. There is nothing to say that this would be the case at all, and just because it's very cold, doesn't mean people will struggle to get places - assuming it doesn't snow 5 inches every day for the duration, then there is no reason why disruption would persist.

 

Again, the weather does what it wants. I'm not unaware of the consequences - but if it's going to happen, then what can you do about it? Nothing at all.

 

 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So what? It's called natural selection.

It would certainly get Cameron, IDS and Osborne off the hook?

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

 

 

 

I'm aware that many more homes had gas or oil fires, but I'm saying that talks of gas supplies running out and a mass cull of the population (!!) are far-fetched and unfounded, based entirely on speculation. There is nothing to say that this would be the case at all.

Yes, but, as MB mentioned, it was the third coldest, and it occurred more recently. 1740 was too long ago to draw valid comparisons. Things are significantly different even compared to 20 years ago let alone 273 years ago.

 

 

I would hate to put that to the test.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

So what? It's called natural selection.

And we could give everyone in the UK the ebola virus and see how that pans out....

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

What if next summer was the hottest in the history of the world evah ?  Thousands would be dead from heatstroke whilst a goodly proportion of the country would be running around saying how great it is. I'd be the same in a brutal winter. We get what we get, winners and losers. Worst of all is that the global warming nutjobs would have a field day.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What if next summer was the hottest in the history of the world evah ?  Thousands would be dead from heatstroke whilst a goodly proportion of the country would be running around saying how great it is. I'd be the same in a brutal winter. We get what we get, winners and losers. Worst of all is that the global warming nutjobs would have a field day.

What's AGW got to do with it?

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

you all seem to. be bigging up this winter,i do not know where that is coming from!I guess to make a comment you have to ask ,what is the coldest winter??Temperature alone does not always fit,look at dec 2010,temp cold yes but little snow and no wind,not exactly the same as the bitter cold east winds of 1986 or 1947!Like I have said before all the severe winters,47,63,79,81,86 and 2010 were all very different so another very severe one will no doubt be different also.To me a severe winter does not start in December and finish at the end of feb,you only have to look at 1947 and 2013 for that,but is it possible to have a winter to end all winters starting in mid November and running until mid april...I do not think so.I do not know which winter in history would be closest to that,probably those in the 17th and 18th centuries but look at last year ,what if it had started earlier,had been that bit colder,had a lump more snow......I guess anything is possible.....to me though the coldest winter have to be easterly and frequent snow over a long period,this is when you get -20 in the south, snow on cross fell for 10 months....who knows

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

And we could give everyone in the UK the ebola virus and see how that pans out....

 

That wouldn't be 'natural' though as you would be giving people the virus.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Firstly I want to clarify a point where people say that winter 46/7 only got going in Feb.  Yes Feb was exceptional at -1.9c CET....but I think that CETs of 3.1c for Dec and 2.2c for Jan would not be counted as average. Winter 46/7 was cold with a prolonged and severe ending. 

 

Now if we had the coldest winter EVER.....we'd have madden all over the place..............not to be wished on anyone.... 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

That wouldn't be 'natural' though as you would be giving people the virus.

Would it be any less 'natural' than cutting off people's power supplies?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Firstly I want to clarify a point where people say that winter 46/7 only got going in Feb.  Yes Feb was exceptional at -1.9c CET....but I think that CETs of 3.1c for Dec and 2.2c for Jan would not be counted as average. Winter 46/7 was cold with a prolonged and severe ending. 

 

Now if we had the coldest winter EVER.....we'd have madden all over the place..............not to be wished on anyone.... 

 

BFTP

 

 

Sorry BLAST but I could quite easily put up with Madden to have the most brutal winter ever!,  the fact is if he came on this forum he wouldn't last long anyway and we have all the tools we need for our pastime without going near a website that has him on it, and although I am I mid market tabloid man, I could just be selective about which ones I buy and when!

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Firstly I want to clarify a point where people say that winter 46/7 only got going in Feb. Yes Feb was exceptional at -1.9c CET....but I think that CETs of 3.1c for Dec and 2.2c for Jan would not be counted as average. Winter 46/7 was cold with a prolonged and severe ending. Now if we had the coldest winter EVER.....we'd have madden all over the place..............not to be wished on anyone.... BFTP

I think January was very mild though and it was just the last ten days that shaped the CET. I think I read somewhere that the daffodils came out in January 1947 with frequent highs of 14C.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I think January was very mild though and it was just the last ten days that shaped the CET. I think I read somewhere that the daffodils came out in January 1947 with frequent highs of 14C.

 

Synoptically the first half does look mild but if you look at the uppers, it was not on the same scale as 1989 or the Nov and Dec of 1994 by any stretch, this is about the mildest looking chart.

 

Posted Image

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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