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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014


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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

I often find it difficult to describe the coupling of the stratosphere with the troposphere, however I am going to try an analogy. For those who watch Come Dancing, then perhaps this will be easier to understand. 

 

The stratosphere/troposphere couple during winter are like a pair of dancers. However, this is no couple where one dancer takes the dominant lead - rather, we see a swapping of leads between the troposphere and the stratosphere during the dance. Occasionally, one will leave the other ( for instance a non propagating SSW) only to join up later. Generally, where one places their foot the other moves their own accordingly, so that the flow of the dance is kept and a symmetry is maintained. On other occasions one dancer (the stratosphere) can become the lead dancer and firmly clasps the other dancer (when it becomes very cold and increased in strength - vortex intensification) and that dancer (the troposphere) can not let go until the other dancer relaxes their grip (giving stratospheric led positive AO conditions). That grip can be relaxed instantly though by the other dancer tripping the lead dancer up ( through a SSW that will be tropospherically led by MT wave breaking) and the speed of the dance reduces or stops dramatically.

 

The fact though, is that during winter those two dancers are dynamically linked and anyone who looks at one without looking at the other will be judging the dance falsely or blindly - it would be akin to judging Torvill and not Dean or Dean and not Torvill, when in fact they were both dancing together all of the time!

That is the best description I have ever read.

 

Thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Thanks for your answer.I'm thinking what happened 1976-77 when the first half of winter was really cold, there was a SSW during the January and the rest of winter was mild.

 

Nice Arctic high for the middle of January 77.

 

 

The composite 500mb anomaly for Jan/Feb looks close to being good from a cold perspective,but as ever the devil is in the detail.

 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

verry nice discription there chio. A qs. This mountin tork taking place in asia. Could this lead to an ssw? Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

verry nice discription there chio. A qs. This mountin tork taking place in asia. Could this lead to an ssw? Thanks.

It is too early in the season to get a SSW - the vortex is just about to get going. My guess is that the stratospheric cooling taking place will gather momentum - with perhaps a slight delay. Encouraging though to see a NH strong MT this early in the autumn.Will look at it in a bit more detail later.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Thanks Recretos for the 2009 ´correction´.What about the SAI. Seems to me that the growth rate ain´t that good.

It's certainly not up there with 2009 or 2012, but what I would say is that I don't think we have seen a starting point as high as this certainly in the last 5 years or so, so it will be an interesting test of whether it has to be rate of change or whether the albedo effect alone is enough to create a strong Siberian high.I realise that a comparison of extent vs advance has already been looked at over a couple of Cohen's papers, but I do think we are in to unfamiliar territory here given the strong start to the season potentiallySK
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

It's certainly not up there with 2009 or 2012, but what I would say is that I don't think we have seen a starting point as high as this certainly in the last 5 years or so, so it will be an interesting test of whether it has to be rate of change or whether the albedo effect alone is enough to create a strong Siberian high.I realise that a comparison of extent vs advance has already been looked at over a couple of Cohen's papers, but I do think we are in to unfamiliar territory here given the strong start to the season potentiallySK

I've been thinking about this - could it be that the important thing is to have southerly latitude snow cover as early as possible during October - since this will lead to more sunlight being reflected - and an increase in ozone.  If you have a very steep SAI, then typically there's a good chance that you'll get some decent early snow cover at the more southerly latitudes across Russia.  So for this winter, although the rate of increase hasn't been fantastic, perhaps we need to focus on the southerly extent of the snow through Oct - and what the ozone levels are (I've not checked to see how good this has been relative to average).  So because we started with the high extent, perhaps we can't rely on the rate of change entirely. EDITif I'm reading this correctly - ozone looks pretty good right now - http://es-ee.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap_n.htm - also looks like it's heading into the right kind of area - although we've got the big negative anomaly just on the Western side of Greenland. Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

I've been thinking about this - could it be that the important thing is to have southerly latitude snow cover as early as possible during October - since this will lead to more sunlight being reflected - and an increase in ozone.  If you have a very steep SAI, then typically there's a good chance that you'll get some decent early snow cover at the more southerly latitudes across Russia.  So for this winter, although the rate of increase hasn't been fantastic, perhaps we need to focus on the southerly extent of the snow through Oct - and what the ozone levels are (I've not checked to see how good this has been relative to average).  So because we started with the high extent, perhaps we can't rely on the rate of change entirely. EDITif I'm reading this correctly - ozone looks pretty good right now - http://es-ee.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap_n.htm - also looks like it's heading into the right kind of area - although we've got the big negative anomaly just on the Western side of Greenland.

The link that you provided is the site I always use and have been using during the summer.

Ozone in the lower to mid stratosphere has been above normal throughout the year in

the northern hemisphere ( click on archive of total ozone maps after opening the main link)

thanks in part to the warming at end of April and through May. Mountain torques from Asia

during September and very recently could very well mean a very active BDC (brewer dobson

circulation) this winter and thus potential for numerous wave breaking episodes.

This I hope will be enough to keep the AO more on the negative side and will couple with what

I am hoping will be a -NAO to bring what I think will be a severe winter to Europe and the UK.

I would also not be surprised to see a more active MJO making the atmosphere more Nino like

even though enso will be around neutral.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I know you cannot get an SSW this early but this chart has all the hallmarks of the start of one.

 

Posted Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

The link that you provided is the site I always use and have been using during the summer.

Ozone in the lower to mid stratosphere has been above normal throughout the year in

the northern hemisphere ( click on archive of total ozone maps after opening the main link)

thanks in part to the warming at end of April and through May. Mountain torques from Asia

during September and very recently could very well mean a very active BDC (brewer dobson

circulation) this winter and thus potential for numerous wave breaking episodes.

This I hope will be enough to keep the AO more on the negative side and will couple with what

I am hoping will be a -NAO to bring what I think will be a severe winter to Europe and the UK.

I would also not be surprised to see a more active MJO making the atmosphere more Nino like

even though enso will be around neutral.

 

Of course a nino based AAM atmosphere will encourage this and the amount of Ozone ready to be transported from the tropics.

 

The tropical stratosphere at 10hPa is currently running at 5ºC below average and this has reduced the thermal differerential by about a third between that and the polar stratosphere. it will be interesting to see how this is affecting the mean zonal mean winds at 60ºN (when I can find a site that is accurately measuring this presently)

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Of course a nino based AAM atmosphere will encourage this and the amount of Ozone ready to be transported from the tropics.

 

The tropical stratosphere at 10hPa is currently running at 5ºC below average and this has reduced the thermal differerential by about a third between that and the polar stratosphere. it will be interesting to see how this is affecting the mean zonal mean winds at 60ºN (when I can find a site that is accurately measuring this presently)

Are these any use Ed? They look to be running at around 20m/s around 50-60N on these 2 links.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_u_a12.gif

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/zu_nh.gif

 

I did note the ECM graph is not available yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Are these any use Ed? They look to be running at around 20m/s around 50-60N on these 2 links.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_u_a12.gif

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/zu_nh.gif

 

I did note the ECM graph is not available yet.

Thanks Phil though one has to know the average to know how far above or below we are.

 

This is the site that I normally use but it hasn't updated since early September.

 

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

 

However, I can see that the mean zonal winds for the end of October are around 22m/s and 17m/s for 10 hpa and 30 hPa respectively. Currently the mean zonal winds at those levels are well behind that, but forecasts suggest that they will be there or thereabouts by the end of the month.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=all&forecast=f240&lng=eng

 

 

I think that come the end of November they will be above the climatology mean.

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

thanks chio for the reply. From what i here solar activity is on the rise would that have any effect on the strat down the line? If i'm rite last dec's cold was scuppered by that according to gp. Shame wouldn't get his input this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

Apologises for delay, Excellent opening Chio, This has to be one of the best threads, I guess its where our climate and patterns begin. Found this image for those like myself wanting to understand stratosphere,Hope you all don't mind.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

 

However, I can see that the mean zonal winds for the end of October are around 22m/s and 17m/s for 10 hpa and 30 hPa respectively. Currently the mean zonal winds at those levels are well behind that, but forecasts suggest that they will be there or thereabouts by the end of the month.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=all&forecast=f240&lng=eng

 

 

I think that come the end of November they will be above the climatology mean.

 

So this would perhaps point towards Winter at least having a mild start?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

So this would perhaps point towards Winter at least having a mild start?

Not necessarily at this point. We will know more in a months time.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Not necessarily at this point. We will know more in a months time.

 

But on the balance of probability maybe 70/30 though ??

 

EDIT : The chart I posted on the last page actually looked good to me but I presume its not as someone would have picked up on it.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

But on the balance of probability maybe 70/30 though ??

As I said, we will know more in a months time.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

As I said, we will know more in a months time.

 

Come on Chiono, spill the beans. It's a 60/40 isn't it Posted Image

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