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Super Typhoon Francisco


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Another tropical depression has formed in this late flurry of activity in the West Pacific. Tropical Depression 26W is located near Guam, and has actually formed near enough in the same spot Wipha did. The depression has winds of 25kts currently, but has persistant, deep convection and formative banding features, particularly in the southern quadrant. The depression is moving to the southwest in low level flow, but will soon be strong enough to be steered by a building ridge to the northeast, sending 26W northwestwards in a few days. Low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow should allow 26W to become quite an intense typhoon over the next several days.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Posted Image

Tropical Depression TWENTYSIX: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 120 hours lead

Posted Image


 

 

Guam - Although it's been years since the island has been hit by a tropical storm, weather officials can't determine just yet if we'll be able to dodge what's now Tropical Depression 26-W.
 
It's official. It's typhoon season.
 
With record setting rainfall reported last month and a number of tropical disturbances in our area in the last few days, residents are advised to prepare for not only more rain, but also a possible storm. With a tropical storm watch in effect and condition of readiness three declared earlier this afternoon, National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist Chip Guard says the tropical disturbance is now Tropical Depression 26-W.
 
Currently 75 miles southeast of Guam, 26-W is moving west-southwest at about 15 miles per hour but guard says it's tough to predict its next move. "The forecast for this system now is to go south of Guam and then slow down and take a northward jut.  The problem is, after it moves south of us probably tonight, late tonight, it's going to slow down. We don't know how slow it's going to move. 1604 we don't know exactly what track it's going to take and we don't know how much intensification it's going to go through," he said.
 
Guard says tonight and tomorrow morning will determine the fate for Guam and our neighbors in the CNMI with chances the depression developing into a tropical storm overnight. He said, "Certainly through the nighttime hours its easier for these storms to intensify than it is during the daytime hours. 1622 right now you're seeing a little bit of a lull but after the sun goes down tonight especially maybe around 10 o'clock you'll start to see the winds pick up it'll rain a bit heavier and we could see some flooding and gusty winds through the nighttime hours." Even if we don't get hit by a storm, Guard says we may still feel the blow of one, including damaging winds between 39 and 73 miles per hour within the next 48 hours. "The damaging winds haven't developed yet but later on after they develop they'll probably expand to about 120 miles so that would allow it to affect Guam maybe even Rota," he said.
 
Now that we are in Condition of Readiness 3 and under Tropical Storm Watch, it is important for all residents to take the necessary steps to ensure safety and preparedness should the weather escalate. Adelup deputy press secretary Phil Leon Guerrero said, "Governor Calvo is encouraging all residents to prepare for this weather event that would be to make sure you are stocked up on your non-perishable food items like canned goods, bottled water certainly as the evening hours progress its important that you are staying informed and here on Guam that would be by listening to the radio that would mean stock up on your batteries if you don't have a battery operated radio please get one."
 
Residents are reminded to gather the needed essentials such as gas, water and flashlights and make outside preparations such as secure loose items around your home. As the evening hours progress, it is anticipated that the winds will pick up significantly and the island will see heavy rainfall. Another heavy weather briefing will be held at 8pm this evening

 

 

 

http://www.kuam.com/story/23702354/2013/10/16/tropical-depression-could-turn-into-tropical-storm-overnight

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

26W has become Tropical Storm Francisco, with winds of 35kts. The storm has well developed banding and deep, centralised convection. I think that Francisco is a very good candidate for a rapid intensification phase, which could begin soon. The structure of Francisco, along with the highly conducive environment ahead, makes me think it won't belong before Francisco is a typhoon.

 

post-1820-0-91525600-1381949769_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Francisco might have become a typhoon already, looking at current satellite picture and satellite intensity estimates ranging from 51 tot 72 knots.

This could mean that a rapid intensification phase has already begun, and conditions are ripe for further development, given the low VWS, (less than 5 knots), and warm SSTS. Let's hope this system won't give too much of an impact to the already soaked Japan

 

Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=26W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Indeed, an eye is clearly developing in latest satellite imagery, and Francisco is rapidly intensifying. Winds are up to 60kts according to the latest JTWC advisory. I expect the winds to continue to rocket up.

 

post-1820-0-17091900-1381954944_thumb.jp

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Great link - had good fun playing around on that site !

 

Sunday image courtesy of post on amwx.

post-7292-0-52410600-1381956529_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-77304100-1381956439_thumb.pn 

 

 

 

 

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

CIMSS is a brilliant site for satellite imagery and other TC data. Interesting to note that the shear is in the "Very Favourable" category for the next 24hrs, and the "maximum potential intensity" is 888mb. Maximum potential intensity is a measure of how strong a storm can get in the region it's in, at the time of year, in a perfect environment.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Great link - had good fun playing around on that site !

 Nice to hear! It indeed is a very useful site for TC information.

 

 

Maximum potential intensity is a measure of how strong a storm can get in the region it's in, at the time of year, in a perfect environment.

 

This environment seems to have much resemblance to a "perfect environment", with the shear very low on its track for perhaps at least 72 hrs:

 

Posted Image

 

This map shows the shear tendency over the past 24 hours, with the actual shear level (not shear direction).

 

There is also abundant moisture ahead of Francesco (unlike the Atlantic most of the year), as shown in the water vapor pressure below: 

 

Posted Image

 

So there doesn't seem any reason for Francisco to stop intensifying right now, especially since an eye feature is already forming. The only question right now is: how strong will this possible monster get?

 

 

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Francisco has become a typhoon, with winds of 70kts. The forming eye has developed into a rather large eye this morning, in a circular central dense overcast, flanked by impressive banding features. Further rapid strengthening is likely. It's hard to believe this system was a tropical depression just over 24 hours ago!

 

post-1820-0-37309000-1381990401_thumb.jp

 

 

Francisco has been drifting south overnight, but is expected to turn north then northwest as the steering ridge building to the northeast assumes steering influence.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Francisco continues to become better organized as it spins to the southwest of Guam.

 
Francisco has developed in a similar area to where former Typhoon Wipha formed last week. Francisco will bring heavy downpours to the Mariana Islands, including Guam, over the next day or two as the storm tracks northward.
 
Posted Image
 

During this time, it is expected that Francisco will strengthen into a typhoon, but any damaging winds will remain west of the Mariana Islands.Later this week into early next week, Francisco will travel over the open waters of the Western Pacific, south of Japan. Conditions appear to be favorable for Francisco to strengthen further during this time as Francisco takes a track very similar to that of former Typhoon Wipha.By early next week, Francisco will begin to interact with a frontal boundary to the north that approaches Japan. This will front will attempt to steer Francisco northward then turn the storm northeast toward southern and eastern Japan. Depending on the exact timing of the front coming in from the west, Francisco could be guided on a track very similar to the one taken by Wipha.

 

If this scenario unfolds, another round of flooding rain and damaging winds would slam eastern Japan, including Tokyo. If Francisco were to miss the connection with this frontal boundary, the storm would likely slow in speed and track off to the west before being lifted northward by a later frontal boundary.
This would likely take the greatest impacts of Francisco into the Korean Peninsula or western Japan, similar to the track of Tropical Storm Kong-Rey, earlier this year.
 
Posted Image

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/francisco-strengthen-japan-nex/18911396

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Francisco might have become a typhoon already, looking at current satellite picture and satellite intensity estimates ranging from 51 tot 72 knots.

This could mean that a rapid intensification phase has already begun, and conditions are ripe for further development, given the low VWS, (less than 5 knots), and warm SSTS. Let's hope this system won't give too much of an impact to the already soaked Japan

 

Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=26W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

 

 

Great link, thanks!

 

If the link is correct, pressure is down to 950Mb and winds are around 100kts, making it already category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I don't see why this may not reach super typhoon status before it starts to weaken in a few days time.

Edited by Sainsbo
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Francisco has continued to rapidly intensify and is now a cat 3 on the SS scale, with winds of 110kts. JTWC forecast a peak of 135kts, but it could easily get stronger than that in the low shear, warm sea temps and abundant moisture.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

This is indeed a potential cat.5 super typhoon, with it experiencing very favorable conditions for many hours.

 

Another indicator that continued rapid intensification is likely, is that there is currently (to my eye) no sign of an ERC to occur shortly (see below).

Posted Image

 

Link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

 

Such images of other TC's are available on the above link.

 

 

This loop also shows that in the last few frames, the eyewall has become more pronounced, indicative of intensifying cyclones.

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Francisco is now a cat 4 with winds of 120kts. The eye has shrunk considerably overnight from it's large size of yesterday. Thick, curved bands continue to wrap around the central dense overcast. Francisco has another good 72hrs to strengthen, as in this time period, shear is set to remain low and outflow excellent. Therefore, barring any eyewall replacement cycles, Francisco should continue to intensify.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Typhoon Francisco, following Wipha's deadly path, drenches Guam on its way to Japan

 

Posted Image

 

Typhoon Francisco skirted west of Guam on Friday following the same path as Typhoon Wipha, which killed 17 people in Japan this week.

The U.S. Pacific island remained on highest alert with most government functions shut down as tropical-storm-force wind and rain lashed its west coast. At 11:20 a.m. (9:20 p.m. Thursday ET), Francisco, a category 2 storm, was about 125 miles west of the island and was moving northwest at 10 mph. The National Weather Service said the storm had unexpectedly maintained its strength as its eastern edge hit the island, and a tropical storm warning remained in effect. Sustained winds of 40 mph were expected to continue through the afternoon, with gusts above 50 mph. Sea levels were 5 feet above normal as the storm dropped heavy showers across the island.

 

The government was closed, along with all schools and banks, after Gov. Eddie Calvo declared a Condition of Readiness 1, the highest alert. Guam's three U.S. military bases, which follow a different standard, were at moderate alert, with only some non-essential services suspended, the Navy said Friday morning. Visiting hours were suspended at Guam Memorial Hospital, but the hospital was accepting patients, and all late-term pregnant women were asked to check in so they wouldn't be stranded if they went into labor. The hospital said it would admit all such women until it was safe for them to return home.

"We are expecting the worst of the weather to pass around 3 p.m.," Phill Leon Guerrero, a spokesman for Calvo, told NBC station KUAM of Hagatna. "At this point, it is a wait-and-see thing, and we want to make sure that the typhoon moves as predicted." Francisco was expected to regain strength as it traveled over the open waters of the Western Pacific over the weekend on a very similar course to that taken by Typhoon Wipha, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said

 

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/17/21015024-typhoon-francisco-following-wiphas-deadly-path-drenches-guam-on-its-way-to-japan?lite

 

Posted Image

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JWTC still going for a peak of 135kts which I find quite confusing. Francisco is already at 125kts, and will likely have favourable conditions for a long time yet.

 

This link suggests that Francisco is already as strong as the JTWC's maximum forecast intensity. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/FRANCISCO_Y-list.txt

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
the purple shows the land of Guam and Yap, Marianas Islands, a very close monster around 120miles to west of Guam
Edited by Jo Farrow
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

 

 
the purple shows the land of Guam and Yap, Marianas Islands, a very close monster around 120miles to west of Guam

 

 

Impressive storm structure. Should be an interesting one to follow in the days ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands
 

This link suggests that Francisco is already as strong as the JTWC's maximum forecast intensity. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/FRANCISCO_Y-list.txt

 

If these values are true, then this would be the first typhoon in a long time (I don't know exactly how long) to reach a pressure below 900 mb.

 

 

Interesting to note is that Francisco took many wobbles in its track after its northward turn, with directions varying from north-northeast to northwest.

 

Posted Image

Is it the TC itself that causes such wobbles in its track, or is it the surrounding environment?

 

Last loop shows a more steady track of this mighty typhoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/26W/flash-vis-long.html

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The wobbles would be to do with the typhoon itself I would've thought, may be something to do with the rapid intensification.

 

Well, Francisco is now the season's third Super Typhoon (the others being cat 4 Super Typhoon Utor and cat 5 Super Typhoon Usagi). Winds have increased to 135kts, making Francisco a high end cat 4 on the SS scale. Francisco is likely to become a cat 5 very soon as shear remains low and outflow strong.

 

What a beauty!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Francisco has become a category 5 this morning, with winds of 140kts. This is the second cat 5 of the season, the other being Usagi, and the third worldwide this year, with Usagi and Phailin in the North Indian Ocean last week being the others. Eyewall replacement cycles will be the main factor in intensity changes over the next day or so whilst the environment remains otherwise favourable.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

The wobbles would be to do with the typhoon itself I would've thought, may be something to do with the rapid intensification.

 

That indeed would be most likely. With such huge amounts of energy involved in the process, such systems could perhaps even be able to modify their own paths.

 

Posted Image

 

This is perhaps one of the most beautiful cyclones I have ever seen. And the best is that nobody is harmed by this magnificent, but also destructive, creature of mother nature.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

This is perhaps one of the most beautiful cyclones I have ever seen. And the best is that nobody is harmed by this magnificent, but also destructive, creature of mother nature.

 

Not yet at least. Japan need to be very wary of this one. Though Francisco will be weaker on approach, it'll still likely to be a typhoon, with a possibly dangerous storm surge and high rainfall totals.

 

Nice satellite run of Francisco. It's surprising that there hasn't been an eyewall replacement cycle yet. With a storm that has been a super typhoon for as long as Francisco has, I would've expected one by now.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Francisco is going through its first ERC now, with a huge outer eyewall letting the small inner eyewall collapse. The eye has also become obscured in satellite imagery, but a possible very large eye will become visible soon.

 

Posted Image

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