Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Super Typhoon Francisco


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Indeed, and after 36 hours of maintaining cat 5 intensity, the eyewall replacement cycle has weakened Francisco to cat 4 intensity, with winds of 125kts. Shear is starting to rise also, and will rise further on the northward track. Thus, Francisco will probably weaken even after the eyewall replacement cycle completes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Winds have dropped to 115kts. However, Francisco has nearly completed the eyewall replacement cycle as the new eye is clearing out. The central dense overcast is still circular, indicating that the modest increase in shear is not really negatively affecting Francisco right now. I wouldn't rule out some brief re-intensification now before Francisco runs into the higher shear further north, which was responsible for killing Tropical Depression 27W. Francisco will not reach the same fate however, and although will weaken, is still a significant threat to Japan.

 

Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Super typhoon Francisco is forecast to strike Japan as a typhoon at about 00:00 GMT on 25 October.

 

Super typhoon Francisco is forecast to strike Japan as a typhoon at about 00:00 GMT on 25 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 33.0 N, 136.6 E. Francisco is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 157 km/h (97 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

 

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Francisco's strength (category 2) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

 

 

http://www.trust.org/item/20131020030055-9xdge/?source=hppartner

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Francisco has weakened through the day. Winds are down to 90kts, making the typhoon a cat 2 on the SS scale. Shear is still relatively low, so it might be the fact that Francisco is traversing waters cooled by Typhoon Wipha a week ago, as Francisco is heading almost exactly along Wipha's track. Convection is becoming increasingly shallow, indicative of cooler water. The new eye is still visible, but it is cloud filled. Shear rises to the north, and sea temps decline further, so Francisco should continue to weaken before it swings northeast and clips eastern Japan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Posted Image

 

The 2013 typhoon season in the western Pacific continues to remain active, especially considering that it is the month of October. On October 18-19, 2013, Typhoon Francisco produced sustained winds around 160 miles per hour and was classified as the third-strongest tropical cyclone to have formed in 2013. Then, over the past 48 hours, Francisco was classified as a Super Typhoon. Francisco is now pushing to the north-northwest and will likely push into parts of eastern Japan by Friday, October 25, 2013 as a much weaker storm. Regardless, it will be the second system to strike Japan in about a week.
 
Japan will begin to see an increase in surf, rip currents, heavy rain, and gusty winds by the end of the week as Francisco pushes into the eastern parts of the country. Flooding is the main concern, especially since Japan was soaked from Typhoon Wipha last week.

 

 

 

http://earthsky.org/earth/typhoon-francisco-expected-to-strike-japan-later-this-week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Francisco has weakened a little more, and is now a 75kts cat 1 according to JTWC. Although the convection remains shallow around the eye, the eye has cleared out and become better defined since I last posted. Shear is still low and could remain so through the next 24 hours. This means that any further weakening will be slow during this time. As Francisco nears Japan, even colder waters and higher shear will induce faster weakening then extratropical transition. Nevertheless, Francisco remains a significant threat to Japan, especially as it is set to hit a similar area to Typhoon Wipha last week.

 

post-1820-0-31875500-1382435685_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 

Edited by Somerset Squall
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Francisco, as captured by the AVHRR instrument on Metop-B satellite overnight.

 

Posted Image

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/eumetsat/10419209636/

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Cool waters and dry air are weakening Francisco this evening. The system is barely clinging on to typhoon status, with winds now at 65kts. Dry air is infiltrating the core of Francisco, and there are large dry slots in the ever weakening convective canopy. Francisco should continue to weaken as it turns northeast soon, and shear rises.

 

post-1820-0-17776200-1382557541_thumb.jp

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Francisco is on the way out. The little convection associated with the system is sheared well to the northeast. Extratropical transition is well underway and should be complete soon as Francisco passes south of Japan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...