Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Naefs week 2 continues to show an increasingly influencial scandi height rise. early nov fog and frost anyone ??

yes to the frost..Posted Image no to the fog.. thanks

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

yes to the frost..Posted Image no to the fog.. thanks

 

Fog's great. When else do you get to walk around in a cloud?

 

Only 9 days now until the models come out an hour earlier.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Not here in Peasedown.......Posted Image

Edited by ARTDEMOLE
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There are plenty of GEFS 06z perturbations going for strong increasingly cool zonality towards the end of the month and this few examples show both an incoming arctic blast which is built on more solid foundations than the 6z op run N'ly toppler and then we have a few very anticyclonic options by the turn of the month, including an FI scandi high on the 6z control run.Posted Image Posted Image

post-4783-0-83689100-1382106296_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-43806100-1382106304_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-59851100-1382106309_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-71202100-1382106363_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There is a definate cooling trend on the GEFS 06z mean beyond around T+168 hours, the mild / very mild weather is during the next 7 days and even that ebbs and flows, the mildness being offset by occasionally strong to gale force winds between s'ly / sw'ly...as time goes on, the mean indicates winds slowly veering more to an atlantic westerly flow and the PFJ gradually pushes further south, so we replace very mild and unsettled for increasingly cooler and strong zonality towards the end of the month, as I said before, this is well supported on the 6z perturbation charts.Posted Image

post-4783-0-21149200-1382108118_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-77274200-1382108126_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-84658600-1382108135_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-51003000-1382108143_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-64964600-1382108152_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-47625700-1382108160_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-05326800-1382108173_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-17182600-1382108182_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-80194600-1382108192_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-46824600-1382108201_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-51796000-1382108207_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-96917800-1382108215_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-65608500-1382108256_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-13475300-1382108265_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The mild will come in in the next week and hopefully will move away as we get into November.

 

Despite the toys being thrown out of prams all over NW at the moment it seems to me that we are getting it just about right at the moment, mild variable weather through October into November which will be moving away as November progresses and leaves us open to some cold as Winter kicks in.

 

I am liking it all at the moment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

The mild will come in in the next week and hopefully will move away as we get into November.

 

Despite the toys being thrown out of prams all over NW at the moment it seems to me that we are getting it just about right at the moment, mild variable weather through October into November which will be moving away as November progresses and leaves us open to some cold as Winter kicks in.

 

I am liking it all at the moment.

Yes me too. The models are showing a very Autumnal outlook at the moment, which seems to me to be quite fitting given the fact that it's, y'know, Autumn...Posted Image
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yes me too. The models are showing a very Autumnal outlook at the moment, which seems to me to be quite fitting given the fact that it's, y'know, Autumn...Posted Image

T'thing is, it hasn't felt like autumn for most of autumn so far, it's felt more like summer, at last we are seeing the other side of autumn for the coming weeks, we will be in the zone of strong winds and spells of heavy rain with an eventual cooling trend beyond the next week or so, the atlantic is going to bare it's teeth and snarl at the uk for the first time this autumn, it's been like a playful kitten so far but until months end it will be a roaring lion.

post-4783-0-05751300-1382111005_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The CFS and JMA are suggesting potential higher than normal heights over the UK and towards Scandinavia developing from week 2 onwards which is in line with NAEFs. So there is signs of potentially drier and cooler weather developing into November.

Interesting to see most monthly models going one way with the EC32 going full blown unsettled, this happened in September and look what happened.

I wonder whether this zonal period may end up shorter and weaker than first expected.

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

The CFS and JMA are suggesting potential higher than normal heights over the UK and towards Scandinavia developing from week 2 onwards which is in line with NAEFs. So there is signs of potentially drier and cooler weather developing into November.

Interesting to see most monthly models going one way with the EC32 going full blown unsettled, this happened in September and look what happened.

I wonder whether this zonal period may end up shorter and weaker than first expected.

Don't get me started on the EC32 CS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Latest run showing the jet meandering a lot more. Just goes to show how much GFS over powers things really. Not the end of the run yet, but I expect to see big changes some time soon. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS trying to build high pressure as early as the 26th this afternoon

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

But in the end we get a north to north westerly

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

A north south split to start the final month of Autumn temperature wise

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

But the cooler uppers do track south

 

Posted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

GFS snow tease

 

Posted Image

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

The 6z Looking a bit wet for the next 7 days, but at least it will be mild Posted Image as Gav says there could be something chillier as we approach November which is shown below with the GFS showing some cold uppers of about -7c for this location. Though it's still a while off yet time for things to change.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Gaz1985
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Aaah GFS charts for the 2nd Nov. The time period yesterday had the UK blown away by a dart board low. T 384 don't take it too heart too much. Tomorrow will show something different.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Aaah GFS charts for the 2nd Nov. The time period yesterday had the UK blown away by a dart board low. T 384 don't take it too heart too much. Tomorrow will show something different.

 

It will show something different by the end of the 18Z run, that just how volitile the output is at that range. 

 

The short term trends do appear to be of mild SW'lies, not always especially wet but very mild. Perhaps just perhaps some slightly cooler Westerlies as we head into the medium range but the general theme is for low pressure to remain close by. No signs of any proper polar maritime airmasses just yet but an Autuminal outlook is showing in respect to the wind and rain being projected but also some brighter weather too so a bit for everyone I suppose. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

dealt it its got to turn colder sometime. weather we like it or not. bring on the first frosts and first snow at end of the month.

as I suggested earlier the heights in mid Europe are really sticking about if we could replace them heights with low pressure then its very possible.

and heights building over the uk in the later part of the model outputs is always a possibility but the problem looks to be nw of us to, in other words the vortex strength and location is becoming a little concerning to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

well  all i  say  is  fantasy  world  looking  good  for the  cold  lovers  at the moment

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

Edited by tinybill
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

well  all i  say  is  fantasy  world  looking  good  for the  cold  lovers  at the moment

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

 

Not at our elevations, need to be at least 300m for snow in FI on that run

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

as I suggested earlier the heights in mid Europe are really sticking about if we could replace them heights with low pressure then its very possible.

and heights building over the uk in the later part of the model outputs is always a possibility but the problem looks to be nw of us to, in other words the vortex strength and location is becoming a little concerning to.

Really depends on what the polar vortex does, if it goes into overdrive then it could be zonal for a long time, but if it doesn't and transfers beyond Greenland then there should be a gap to build heights into the UK and Perhaps further north with time. Though at the moment I'm seeing nothing beyond dry and chilly if high pressure did get in. GFS FI has produced some interesting solutions though I feel the northerly it keeps throwing up is probably a red herring as I expect the lower heights over Scandi will recede as the vortex energy moves west.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z perturbations are dominated by a cooler trend beyond T+168 hours and especially by T+240 hours which I am showing here, the general idea is we go from mild, windy and unsettled to rather chilly, windy and unsettled towards the end of october with the PFJ forced further south. There are also some much colder possibilities in there, especially from the Gfs 12z op run, however,  there are also some milder and even a few settled options but a rather chillier and unsettled further outlook wins hands down tonight.Posted Image

post-4783-0-62715300-1382120461_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-62598200-1382120467_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-49456000-1382120482_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-79040800-1382120489_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-79909000-1382120564_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-32022400-1382120574_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-61376100-1382120581_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-30612100-1382120591_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-03502300-1382120604_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-33296500-1382120611_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-17709900-1382120619_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-16178300-1382120813_thumb.pn

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Other than a cooler day ECM remains mild

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

I think the ECM has the right handle on this evolution for now, although I expect November to be colder I just think the GFS is being to progressive, time will tell of course.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: sun and snow and frost
  • Location: leicestershire

yep ECM stays mild but wet and windy to start with. then it becomes dry and sunny and hopefully some frost at night by end of next week. on the other hand GFS MODEL wants to bring in colder weather and later even snow to the highest hills in places. my best bet is that we have settled weather and frost at night. least it be sunny in the daytimes.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Some earlier posts have been removed because they added nothing to Model discussion.

 

A reminder,especially to newer members, that we have another Model thread here for chatty type posts

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

where you can talk more generally and at length about your weather preferences, likes and dislikes etc regarding the outlook.

 

Let's stick to the topic in here please all,Thanks.Posted Image

Edited by phil nw.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...