November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition

[Roger J Smith]

Post your forecasts for November 2013

 

November CET means and trivia

15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
9.5 ... third warmest Nov 1818
9.4 ... fourth warmest Nov 1938
9.3 ... fifth warmest Nov 1743

7.4 .... ---- mean of 2001-2012 ----
7.1 .... ---- mean of 1981-2010 ----

6.9 .... ---- mean of 1971-2000 ----

6.8 ... ... ... ... 2012 average
6.6 .... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ----
6.5 .... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ----
6.1 .... ---- mean of all years 1659-2012 ----

5.9 .... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----
5.8 .... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ----
5.5 .... ---- mean of 1659-1700 ----

4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

-0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)
-2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
-4.6 ... coldest day (23rd, 1890)
__________________________________________________

daily records are for the period 1772 to 2012
monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2012

November displays as much of a historical warming as any month, the mean from 1992 to 2012 was 7.5 C while from 1750 to 1765 the mean was only 5.1 C, similar to the "Dalton minimum" when the average from 1795 to 1820 was only 5.4 C and was 5.1 for the period 1795-1816. These would now be considered cold Novembers (as with 2010). Almost as mild as the recent period, 1938 to 1960 had a mean of 6.9 C.

November has produced the coldest day of the year and also of the winter season about 6% of the past 240 years (14 cases). The last time this happened (in either case) was 23 Nov 1993, when the mean daily CET was -2.9 C.  
 

 

[Isolated Frost]

6.5c.

[hillbilly]

6.9 for  me thanks

[summer blizzard]

8.1C, the settled second half probably coming too late.

[Summer Sun]

7.8c

[simshady]

6.0 please.

[Lettucing Gutted]

R.I.P Autumn.  10.5C 

[UV-RAY]

I expect too see the models firming up on a cold unsettled start to November with second half of the month becoming drier but remaining cold. So on that basis I'm going for 5.9c

[geoffw]

6.2

[feno13]

7.1 please

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the November CET, with the 10 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

 

The correlation between the October and November CET is the second lowest off all consecutive monthly pairs, at +0.235, and when the long term trend is removed from both months, the correlation is even lower +0.186. This is still statistically significant and suggests and warm Octobers are usually followed by warm Novembers and cold by cold, as would be expected, but that relationship is not as strong as most other months.

October looks like finishing somewhere between 11.8C and 12.8C, and the average November following those Octobers is 7.3C.

 

A record high November CET would be required to beat the highest 10 year mean, 7.7 in 2003, so that's very unlikely.

The current run with the 10 year mean above 7C, 15 years, is the longest on record, the previous record being 6 years, between 1982 and 1987.

The current run with the 10 year mean above 6C, 82 years, is the longest on record, the previous record being 22 years between 1888 and 1909

It's been 87 years since a November CET below 4C was recorded, back in 1925. The previous longest run was 34 years, between 1817 and 1850.

 

Just like October, a run of cold Novembers is well overdue.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8.4C.  Cold start being overrun by a very mild second half

 

BFTP

[SteveB]

 8.1c please

[BARRY]

6.6c for me

[Snowstorm1]

5.7c

[CongletonHeat]

5.5

[Bobd29]

7.3 for me please

[tadpole]

7.0c

And it will rain on the 12th nov, especially in the evening. Its my birthday and it feels like it rains on it every year!

[Mark Neal.]

6.3c. Cool start with a mild middle and colder end.

[Snowman.]

6.0 Maybe a small cold period of High pressure settled over the UK around half way.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

I don't know too much about the CET yet so won't be posting an entry, but I have a question.

 

OP states:

 

-4.6 ... coldest day (23rd, 1890)

 

Is this the minimum temperature recorded on that date, or the average temperature of that date?

 

Surely it's the minimum 

 

All I know is that CET is run on averages 

[summer blizzard]

I don't know too much about the CET yet so won't be posting an entry, but I have a question.

 

OP states:

 

-4.6 ... coldest day (23rd, 1890)

 

Is this the minimum temperature recorded on that date, or the average temperature of that date?

 

Surely it's the minimum 

 

All I know is that CET is run on averages

Daily average. 2010 also saw negative averages from the 24th and Nov 05 saw a freezing -14 minima in Scotland.

[Roger J Smith]

That was the mean daily temp for the coldest day in Nov 1890.

 

Meanwhile my entry for Nov 2013 is 7.7 C

[NeilN]

6.8 my entry.

[damianslaw]

I'll go with 7.1 degrees. Expecting a predominantly unsettled month with plenty of boisterous westerlies interspersed with temporary ridges, perhaps a few days of quieter frosty foggy weather at some stage, before the atlantic comes crashing in.

 

I'm expecting the jet to stay on a direct collision with the country so unfortunately a very wet month as well - especially in the west. I don't expect much in the way of sustained very mild weather unlike now, with the trough more aligned on a WNW-ESE path pulling in colder polar maritime air at times especially in the north,but also not expecting any particularly cold weather.

 

In overview a very typical November - it is renowned for being an unsettled month when sustained dry weather is very hard to come by. As for snow, mainly reserved for the hills of the north, but perhaps a covering on lower ground in Scotland and N England at some stage thanks to colder showery northwesterlies.

 

Recent Novembers have however, been quite extreme in terms of temperature constrasts and amounts of rain. Nov 05 was a month of two halves with a very mild first half cancelled out by a notably chilly second half. Nov 06 very mild and drab, ditto Nov 07. Nov 08 was quite average but with quite a cold latter part. Nov 09 exceptionally mild record rain. Nov 10 again a months of two halves a very mild start and an exceptionally cold snowy end. Nov 11 very mild and drab. Nov 12 quite traditional with average temps to start but a colder latter part.

 

I'd love a Nov like 2005 or 2010, but can't see this happening. There is a chance we may see a more toned down version of Nov 09 - a cooler slightly less wet variety.. We have had quite a dry year in the main, and if we have to have a wet period let it be now rather than come December.