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November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I really caught with this month. My composites show the split between above and below average running right across the CET zone, from the north east to the south west. So any slight change in reality compared to the composites will produce an above average or a below average month, while if the composite is very accurate, then an average month will result! My gut tells me it will be more unsettled than the composites suggest though...

 

Perhaps I should just stick with the prediction I made in my Autumn forecast, and say 7.8C. I think a mid Atlantic ridge will exert a growing influence during the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I really caught with this month. My composites show the split between above and below average running right across the CET zone, from the north east to the south west. So any slight change in reality compared to the composites will produce an above average or a below average month, while if the composite is very accurate, then an average month will result! My gut tells me it will be more unsettled than the composites suggest though...

 

Perhaps I should just stick with the prediction I made in my Autumn forecast, and say 7.8C. I think a mid Atlantic ridge will exert a growing influence during the month.

 

 

I also think a mid atlantic ridge development is likely to surface at some stage in November probably during the second half to give the drier frosty slot I am predicting but it probably won't have enough power to kill off the atlantic. However a stronger mid atlantic ridge could be more of a theme during December, and provided we see a continued southerly tracking jetstream woule enable the ridge to move north to pull in cold northerlies/northeasterlies in time.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Will probably go for an average/near average month overall with something for everyone (e.g: mild periods, wind, rain, frosty days and possibly snow). I do, however, agree that the Atlantic could stay quite wild for a while with a possibility of further Lows invading the UK. I do think, at one point, that the Atlantic will give up and allow High Pressure to make an influence (whether it could be from the South-West or East).

Cet estimation: 6.7*C.

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

8.0ºC for me please. Mild & wet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

7.2C I will go for I think, one month I will guess correct im sure!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

7.2C I will go for I think, one month I will guess correct im sure!

D'you mean there's two of us who've never got it right?Posted Image 

 

I'll guess at all the 7s, 7.7...

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

D'you mean there's two of us who've never got it right?Posted Image 

 

I'll guess at all the 7s, 7.7...

I think I envisage a Madden like month when I submit mine, maybe next month I'll go with one just above the average.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I'll go for 8C another mild un.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

8.1c fairly mild

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

8.3C, pretty mild but probably a brief quieter frosty interlude around the 15th-20th which may prevent the month from approaching any records.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

A ( LUCKY DIP) Wow ive got, No 7c..... My lucky number Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

with the atlantic fired up and the jet over the u.k it's looking mild. Also for the moment there's no sign of a patern change. So for nov i'm going for, 8.3c. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

7.8c please

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