November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition

[reef]

It hasn't been a notable month for anything particularly cold, rather a lack of anything very mild. The absolute maximum temp here was 12.0C on the 1st which is actually the lowest since 1993 and 3rd lowest on record. There has only been 10 days with double figure maximums and 8 days with minima above 5C.

 

Its reminds me of a sort of reverse of March 2009, both were devoid of extremes, very sunny and very dry. The only difference is that month was homogenously mild whereas this has been homogeneously cool.

[summer blizzard]

It hasn't been a notable month for anything particularly cold, rather a lack of anything very mild. The absolute maximum temp here was 12.0C on the 1st which is actually the lowest since 1993 and 3rd lowest on record. There has only been 10 days with double figure maximums and 8 days with minima above 5C.

 

Its reminds me of a sort of reverse of March 2009, both were devoid of extremes, very sunny and very dry. The only difference is that month was homogenously mild whereas this has been homogeneously cool.

 

Welcome to winter 06. A winter notable for easterly topplers, northerly topplers but not a single major cold or mild spell at all, just three months of sunny, dry, frosty high pressure. Infact the coldest periods of winter were actually the second half of November and the first half of March.

[Summer Sun]

6.6 to the 29th

 

bang on the 61 to 90 average

[Cheshire Freeze]

6.6 to the 29th

 

bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

Love how we've started referring to the '61-'90 average again. Below average compared to recent averages and possibly quite a bit below with corrections? It'll probably end up being below the '61-'90 average ultimately aswell.

[Summer Sun]

November CET confirmed as 6.17C

 

The first below average month since June

[reef]

November CET confirmed as 6.17C

 

The first below average month since June

 

September was 0.3C below the 1981-2010 average.

 

Either way its a surprisingly cool month and means that Autumn as a whole has pretty much come out as close to average.

[Summer Sun]

September was 0.3C below the 1981-2010 average.

 

Either way its a surprisingly cool month and means that Autumn as a whole has pretty much come out as close to average.

 

Based on the met's cet here September was 0.1c above average

Edited December 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's how the Autumn and individual months compared to some different averages

 

Month.............. 61-90.......... 71-00....... 81-10........... 1901-00...... 1659-2012

 

September........ +0.1............ 0.0.............-0.3.................+0.2.............+0.4

October............ +1.9............+2.1............+1.8................+2.3.............+2.8

November......... -0.3.............-0.7............-0.9.................-0.3..............+0.1

 

Autumn.............+0.5............+0.5............+0.2................+0.7...............+1.1

[Snowyowl9]

I`m surprised November 2005 wasn`t colder only 6.2c certainly had far harder frosts,this november hasn`t given any air frost here,did have a cold snap so typical november average then.

[reef]

I`m surprised November 2005 wasn`t colder only 6.2c certainly had far harder frosts,this november hasn`t given any air frost here,did have a cold snap so typical november average then.

 

November 2005 was a month of two halves though, the first very mild and the second very cold. This month was just homogenously cool all the way through with little in the way of cold or warm.

 

Re: the averages, its a bugbear of mine but I don't understand why the MetOffice still insist on using the 1961-1990 averages. The idea of using a shorter 30 year average instead of a 100 or 300 year average for example is that it gives a reference to how months compare to recent times/climate. Using a near 24 year old average covering such a short period seems silly.

 

Even more annoying is that the MetOffice themselves use the 1981-2010 average on their climate pages, they're not even consistent.

Edited December 1, 2013 by reef

[damianslaw]

So we end up just slightly colder than November 2005. How do we compare with November 1998 and 1996, not far off I think. As I said in the top 5 coldest Novembers since 1985 I think - not bad going, given many were writing off the month being mild and wet. Also proves a rampant PV to our NW doesn't always equate to a mild month.

 How does November 2013 compare with Nov 1996, 1998?

[Summer Sun]

CET home page confirms November as 6.2c which is 0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[J10]

Scores are now in

 

November (Monthly) - No one it spot on but Mark N and March Blizzard were both 0.1c out, while simshady, SN0WM4N and  CreweCold were 0.2c out.

 

Autumn (Seasonal) the Top 3

 

1st Mark N (From 6th)

2nd Polar Gael (From 1st)

3rd Weather-history (From 2nd)

 

Overall, it was very tight right down to the end, but the Overall Top 3 was

 

1st March Blizzard(From 3rd)

2nd Weather-history (From 1st)

3rd Mulzy (From 2nd)

 

A big well done to all, but especially March Blizzard.

 

Excel File Nov 2013 CET.xls

 

PDF File Nov 2013 CET.pdf

 

These both contain a summary of the overall results which should make reading them easier. 

Edited December 2, 2013 by J10

[simshady]

Not bad. Quite pleased with my guess.

[Don]

My guess for November?  Hmm.....!

[summer blizzard]

Horrible month, 33rd for the seasonal but a record 6th for the year.

[Methuselah]

I was only out by 1.5!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's how the daily values looked compared to historical averages.

 

[Snowyowl9]

November 2005 was a month of two halves though, the first very mild and the second very cold. This month was just homogenously cool all the way through with little in the way of cold or warm.

 

Re: the averages, its a bugbear of mine but I don't understand why the MetOffice still insist on using the 1961-1990 averages.

Even more surprised it ended up at 6.2c this month,yes November 2005 was a month of 2 halves but this month was nothing of note to end up below the 61-90 average quite surprised at the final figure.