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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Tropical Storm Raymond has formed in the east of the basin, off the south coast of Mexico. The storm is set to take an unusual path and drift northeast towards the coast of Mexico into a weakness in the ridge to the north. The ridging is expected to build back in in a few days time, which may cause Raymond to turn back west away from the coast. There are large uncertainties however, as a later turn west would mean that Raymond makes landfall. Conditions are favourable for intensification, with low shear and warm sea temps in the area. Regardless of what happens with track, portions of Mexico are in for, yet again, some high rainfall totals and flooding this week.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Small Raymond is strengthening. Winds are up to 45kts currently. Convection is blossoming over the LLCC, with some healthy banding taking shape. Shear is low in the area, and waters are very warm. This means that Raymond will likely become a hurricane, and quite soon if the current structure of Raymond is anything to go by. The track forecast remains the same- a drift north towards the Mexican coast is expected, followed by a westwards turn as ridging rebuilds to the north. Raymond's centre is expected to remain off of the coast, but heavy rains are still likely to affect the coast. Shear will remain low for the next few days but then should start to increase, which could cause some weakening as Raymond heads westwards or west-southwestwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Winds are up to 60kts now. I think there is a real chance Raymond could become a major hurricane if this rapid strengthening continues. If it does it would be about time as Henriette remains the strongest storm of the season so far at a modest 90kt cat 2. The last season without a major hurricane was 2003. NHC forecast a peak of 85kts, but even admit that this could be conservative. Raymond's small size also favours continued rapid strengthening.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Raymond has bombed overnight, and has become a category 2 hurricane with winds of 95kts, making it the strongest storm of the season. An eye has cleared out and is beoming very well defined, embedded in a circular central dense overcast. Raymond looks poised to continue to strengthen rapidly, and I think the hurricane could become a category 4 major hurricane this afternoon, if it isn't nearing that strength already. Looks like Raymond will finally end the major hurricane drought that spans both the Atlantic and East Pacific this year!

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

     

    Newly formed Hurricane Raymond swirled on Sunday toward Mexico's southern Pacific coast, an area already devastated by rains and mudslides from Tropical Storm Manuel last month.The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicted Raymond would take a sharp westward turn and head out to sea before reaching land, but warned that the Category 1 storm still might get as close as 50 miles (80 kilometres), bringing the threat of heavy and possibly dangerous rains. In a region where 10,000 people are still living away from their homes one month after Manuel caused widespread flooding and left landslide risks, officials hurried to get emergency teams in place and weighed possible further evacuations.

     

    Mexican authorities pinned their hopes on a cold front moving from the north that could help force Raymond to turn away from the coast, said the head of Mexico's National Water Commission, David Korenfeld. "The cold front coming down is what makes it (Raymond) turn to the left, but that is a model," Korenfeld said. "If that cold front comes down more slowly, this tropical storm ... can get closer to the coast."Raymond's centre was about 135 miles (215 kilometres) south of the beach resort of Zihuatanejo and had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph) early Sunday evening. The storm was moving north-northwest at about 6 mph (9 kph), the U.S. hurricane centre said. It said some additional strengthening was expected overnight and the storm's forward motion was forecast to slow.

     

    Authorities in southern Guerrero state, where storm deluges caused about 120 deaths from flooding and landslides in September, were more worried about Raymond's potential to bring more heavy rains than its winds. The state government closed seaports, set up 700 emergency shelters and urged residents in risk areas to take precautions. Officials were expected to decide late Sunday on whether to order more evacuations, including from low-lying areas of Acapulco that flooded during Manuel. Forecasters said Raymond was expected to slowly approach the coast late Monday or Tuesday but then begin to meander. The centre said Raymond was likely to become a hurricane "very soon." 

     

    Forecasts warned that heavy rainfall was possible along the south-central Mexican coast in coming days and could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch was in effect from Acapulco west to the seaport of Lazaro Cardenas. "There will be rain for the next 72 hours along the Pacific coast, very heavy rain, torrential rain," Korenfeld said. The potential for damage from such rains is high. About 50 dams in the area were still over capacity, and officials were releasing water to make room for expected rainfall. Dozens of hillsides along the coast are thought to be unstable and could collapse from additional rain. In advance of the storm, the government moved helicopters and work crews to the places that problems were most likely. Some villages high in the mountains of Guerrero were still without electricity and phone service following Manuel.

     

    About 5,000 people in Guerrero are still living in shelters after their homes were flooded, and another 5,000 who were evacuated from homes built on hillsides at risk of mudslides are staying with relatives on safer ground. In Zihuatanejo, near the Ixtapa resort, authorities sent emergency personnel into low-lying areas to warn people to seek safer ground, said Miguel Quiroz, a local Red Cross dispatcher. In Barra de Potosi, a beach area just outside Zihuatanejo, a light rain began falling Sunday but tourists were largely undisturbed by the storm's proximity. "We've got bookings coming in, people are coming in," said London native Les Johnson, an employee at the Our House bed and breakfast. "There's people on the beach, it's quite nice ... there's no problem at the moment."

     

     

     

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/hurricane-raymond-heads-toward-mexico-s-pacific-coast-1.1505228

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Raymond has become the season's first major hurricane with winds of 105kts, making it a cat 3 on the SS scale. Raymond could strengthen a little more as it approaches the coast at a slow crawl.

    Raymond's intensification rate has been impressive- minimal tropical storm to major hurricane in 24 hours!

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Interesting bit of pointless trivia for the name Raymond for a hurricane: Each time the name Raymond has been used it has become a major hurricane, and each time it has also been the strongest storm of the season.

     

    Latest image of Raymond, the outer bands are drenching parts of Mexico:

     

    post-1820-0-82497200-1382384939_thumb.jp

     

     

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Interesting to note is that Raymond has a very small eye, especially compared to the size of Francisco's eye. The eye can also be seen contracting itself during the movie below. At the last bits of the movie the eyewall is broadening(?)

     

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2013_17E/webManager/gifsBy12hr_02.gif

     

    Mexico hasn't had any luck with hurricanes so far, unfortunately. Let's hope the damage will not be as severe as Manuel was. Luckily, models are no longer showing landfall into mainland Mexico, so they won't suffer a direct hit from Raymond. Models are still in quite some disagreement on the short-term forecast track of Raymond, so the amount of rain Mexico will recieve is far from set in stone.

     

     

    RAYMOND HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...AND LITTLEMOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THESTEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO BRINGRAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY ORSO...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD ORSOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURINGTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATICMOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Winds have increased to 110kts according to NHC's latest update. There has indeed been a fair few landfalls or near grazes on Mexico this season Vorticity, more than normal. Though Raymond looks more likely than not to remain offshore, that northern band has already been providing very heavy rains, and as Raymond remains practically stationary over the next day or so, the rain will likely continue unfortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Kicking things up a bit in Acapulco:

     

    Ports were closed, school classes were suspended and hundreds of people were evacuated along Mexico's southern Pacific coast on Monday as a major hurricane loomed over a region still recovering from record flooding a few weeks ago. Raymond, a category three hurricane, weakened slightly on Monday night as it hovered about 145 km (90 miles) offshore. The major storm was moving in "a slow and erratic motion" with winds blowing up to 193 km per hour (120 mph) on Monday, Miami's National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

     

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/uk-storm-raymond-idUKBRE99L01U20131022

     

    http://youtu.be/-WDzCzU0950

     

    http://youtu.be/RTjz7kmUduo

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Raymond has weakened significantly through the day. The hurricane has barely moved at all, and this has not worked out favourably for Raymond. The convective pattern has become much less organised, probably due to the upwelling of colder waters as Raymond remains stationary and also the fact that shear has risen over Raymond. The eye has all but dissapeared. Winds are down to 65kts according to a recon plane that has been investigating Raymond this evening. Raymond is expected to finally move westwards tomorrow. This will put Raymond back over warmer water as it moves away from the churned up colder water, but as shear is expected to remain at moderate levels, significant re-intensification is not expected. NHC forecast Raymond to drop just below hurricane strength then maintain that intensity over the next several days as it drifts westward along the south side of a newly built ridge.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Raymond has weakened significantly through the day. The hurricane has barely moved at all, and this has not worked out favourably for Raymond. The convective pattern has become much less organised, probably due to the upwelling of colder waters as Raymond remains stationary and also the fact that shear has risen over Raymond. 

     

    An interesting link with more information about this upwelling of Raymond, accompained with some images, can be found here.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/comment.html?entrynum=76

     

    Meanwhile, Mexico is still suffering from the drenching rains produced by Raymond, which could potentially cause landslides and flash floods. The weakening of Raymond hasn't decreased the amount of rain falling over Mexico, unfortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Rain looks to be the main threat now as Raymond subsides:

     

     

    Hurricane Raymond weakens off Mexico coast, still rain threat

     

    Hurricane Raymond weakened to barely a Category 1 storm Tuesday while still stalled off Mexico's Pacific coast, pumping rain onto an already sodden region recovering from a battering by a tropical storm last month.

     
    Raymond was centered 100 miles (160 kilometers) from the beach resort of Zihuatanejo Tuesday evening, and its winds had dropped to 75 mph (150 kph), down from Category 3 on Monday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It was expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Wednesday and head out to sea. But stung by the tardy reaction to the damage and deaths from Tropical Storm Manuel in September, authorities in Guerrero state took no chances, moving hundreds of people from isolated mountain communities and low-lying shore areas. More than 1,500 soldiers were sent into the area.
     
    Even if Raymond didn't move inland, it could still cause floods and mudslides to an area reeling from more than $1.7 billion in damage and about 120 deaths from Manuel. "Slow and erratic motion is expected during the next 12 hours and Raymond could still move closer to the coast of Mexico," the hurricane center said. Guerrero Gov. Angel Aguirre urged people to stay off roads because of potentially dangerous rains. "The phenomenon's behavior is completely erratic, completely unpredictable," Aguirre said Monday night.
     
    There were no reports of torrential downpours, but rain fell and some streets flooded in soaked Acapulco, where city workers reinforced roads with sand bags. About 400 people were evacuated from hamlets around nearby Coyuca. In the mountain town of El Paraiso, authorities evacuated about 500 residents by Tuesday evening and planned to completely empty the village of 7,000 people because of possible landslides, said Guerrero state's deputy secretary of civil protection, Constantino Gonzalez. Schools in most coastal communities west of Acapulco, including Zihuatanejo, were kept closed.
     
    Forecasters said Raymond was expected to follow an erratic path through the night and could bring as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain to some parts of the coast. About 10,000 people in Guerrero already were living away from their homes a month after Manuel inundated whole neighborhoods and caused landslides that buried much of one village. It left behind drenched hillsides that pose serious landslide risks. A hurricane warning was in effect from Tecpan de Galeana, up the coast from Acapulco, north to the port of Lazaro Cardenas. A tropical storm warning was posted from Acapulco to Tecpan.

     

     

     

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57608827/hurricane-raymond-weakens-off-mexico-coast-still-rain-threat/

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Raymond is in trouble this evening. Shear has completely stripped the LLCC of convection, and it is now entirely exposed west of the shrinking convection. Winds have continued to fall, and are at 50kts according to NHC's 4pm update, though they could be lower than that now. Raymond has finally started moving west. Shear is expected to ease, and as Raymond moves over warmer water, it could recover.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Winds have decreased to 45kts.

     

    Raymond's track so far, an unusual one to say the least!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Raymond's track so far, an unusual one to say the least!

     

     

    +1

     

    Tropical Storm RAYMOND: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Winds have decreased to 45kts.

     

    Raymond's track so far, an unusual one to say the least!

     

    Posted Image

    This could still be a long ride for Raymond, as the recurve to the north is far from set in stone!

     

     

    RAYMOND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AMID-LEVEL HIGH. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVINGWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT IS LOCATED ON THESOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TOTURN NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN A TROUGH ERODESTHE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALEMID-LEVEL PATTERN...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACKGUIDANCE IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME. THE REASON FOR THE SPREADIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTHOF RAYMOND. THE GFS SHOWS A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND A SOUTHERLY TRACK.CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A DEEPER CYCLONE AND A MORE NORTHERLYTRACK. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF...AND THELATEST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THAT MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS AID...TVCE.

    Intensity has come down to 40 knots, and Raymond is forecast to weaken further to minimal tropical storm strength, before strengthening back to 50 kts. Though shear is forecast to decrease, the forecasted weakening is because of some dry air lurking ahead of Raymond's track as seen in Water Vapor imagery:

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Raymond is looking a lot better this evening. Winds are back up to 50kts. The storm has developed a central dense overcast again. Over the next 48 hours or so, shear is set to remain low, waters warm and the air moist. Therefore, Raymond should regain hurricane status.

    Raymond has been moving south of west over thw last day or so along a ridge to the north. An approaching trough from the west should recurve Raymond northeastwards in a few days time. The timing of this turn is uncertain. The trough will oncrease shear over Raymond, causing weakening at days 4 and 5.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Raymond has become a hurricane for the second time, with winds now at 65kts. The hurricane has a well established central dense overcast with a cloud filled eye. Raymond continues to move westwards but should get picked up by the trough in a couple days time. Therefore, as the trough is going to be the main culprit in the ultimate demise of Raymond, by increasing shear and moving the hurricane over colder water, Raymond has about another 24 hours to strengthen.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Finally, Raymond has regained hurricane status. It took a quite long while before Raymond took advantage of the seemingly favourable conditions (according to the NHC).

     

    Posted Image

    Dvorak image of hurricane Raymond. It shows that convection has finally wrapped fully around the center, after occupying only the southern and eastern semicircle the last few days. There also seems to be a warm spot near 14N 115E, indicative that an eye may be forming.

     

    CIMSS MIMIC imagery of the last 24 hrs also shows that the inner core of Raymond has become much better organized.

    Posted Image

     

    The improved inner core, along with a warm spot noted in Dvorak imagery, show that Raymond may be up for another round of rapid intensification. Quite fascinating that, if another RI phase is on the way, Raymond refused to intensify for about 2 days, and once it decides to intensify, it goes rapidly!

     

    Latest CIMSS ADT intensity estimate is already up to 75 kt, indicating that this RI could already be occuring. 

     

    The forecast track shows a gradual recurve toward the northeast, where it will be sheared apart. Therefore, it's likely that Raymond won't finish it's recurve, and meander for a while.

    Posted Image

     

     

    EDIT: I found a nice graph showing the intensity progress of Raymond, combined with the satellite intensity estimate from CIMSS, showing that Raymond is intensifying almost as quickly as it did in its first RI phase:

    Posted Image

     

     

     

    Sources:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    It has been confirmed by NHC that Raymond is intensifying rapidly. Winds are up to 75kts according to the latest advisory. Although the eye is cloud obscured, it is becoming increasingly well defined. NHC forecast a secondary peak of cat 2 intensity, but I wouldn't rule out Raymond becoming a cat 3 major again before the shear rises.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Raymond's eye has cleared out, and the hurricane is now an 85kt cat 2 on the SS scale. The turn to the northwest is materialising a little quicker than previously anticipated, so Raymond only has just under 12 hours before it runs into the shear and cooler water. Therefore, Raymond is probably near it's second peak.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Raymond's second peak was 90kts (the first was 110kts). Strong shear has since affected Raymond, and winds have fallen to 75kts. The eye has disappeared, and LLCC is becoming partly exposed on the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Further weakening should occur, especially as Raymond will be moving over colder water too.

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