Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[VillagePlank]

To be fair this sort of thing is far more in common up thar. That's why they have no trees, no high bridges, no large population centres etc

Edited October 24, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Jimmyh]

when do we think the track will be more nailed down

[Coast]

when do we think the track will be more nailed down

 

Late Saturday/early Sunday

[Jimmyh]

so coast your early feelings in your waters are??

[cobbett]

My gut says it will sleep south and east of here, with the Benelux and N/E France taking the brunt of it. Moderate rain and a slight breeze here IMO.

Metoffice indicate that the 'most likely' track is across the south tracking N/E ....at the moment anyway

[Summer Sun]

What is the wind speed for cornwall?

 

Impossible to estimate yet this storm isn't nailed on to hit the UK yet

 

It could miss us altogether and hit France

 

It could continue to downgrade like GFS did this morning

 

We won't know for certain till the 12z's on Saturday

[ukpaul]

Why do people post about what their 'gut' says, is this some strange internal variable that the Met Office are not taking into account?

[Phantom2]

Why do people post about what their 'gut' says, is this some strange internal variable that the Met Office are not taking into account?

 

and why do you post ?

[johnholmes]

The most likely path is what UK Met show on their continually updated Fax charts.

I use this link as it gives you the time of their updates so you can keep track of the latest senior man's ideas

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

[Coast]

so coast your early feelings in your waters are??

 

Well since I've been taking the Amoxicillin, nothing thank goodness!!! :lol:

 

I really don't have a handle on this yet, I keep seeing so many conflicting bits of information and we haven't even seen the birth of the storm yet, let alone the Christening (topical that eh?) and then those tiresome, 'terrible twos' !

 

I think that a deep low will form and depending on where the Jet pushes it, it could affect the UK to a greater or lesser extent. I'm encouraged (if that is the right term for a potentially damaging period of weather) that the MetO and others are giving early warnings and a bit of me would like to see a good blowy storm. But I really don't think I'd want anything like '87 and I don't believe this will come anywhere near. As long as there is no loss of life, limb or property I'll be happy with whatever we get and just hope my tree-lined route into work at 6.30am on Monday is clear and nothing falls on my nut as a soft-roofed car doesn't provide much protection!

[Zenarcher]

Our friends in the outer Hebridies don't have any massive 50 metre trees crashing down on them to worry about.

 

I know that because I've been there. Frequent windy conditions prevent them growing at all.

 

That's true they don't have any big trees but there are still some trees around the Western Isles in sheltered areas. As someone who lived there for 9 years whenever it got stormy not much would happen just the ferries and plane would get cancelled, no damage would happen and the few tree's that were on the island would be okay. However during the years there would be a few major storms that caused minor damage, power outage for nearly a whole day, sheltered trees torn down and the causeways linking the islands together would be shut due to the sea being too high. It cuts off all of the islands links to the rest of the country sometimes a plane would have to come in with emergency supplies and if someone in the local hospital gets ill or needs to be taken to a hospital on the mainland for a medical emergency it can be tricky if the helicopter can't land. One time the helicopter couldn't land so the coast guard crew risked their life's and managed to land and take off in extreme conditions to save someone else's life.

[johnholmes]

It would seem highly unlikely based on data coming out of the various centres that the storm will not affect much of southern England. How badly we have to wait and see until early Saturday but again the best bet on depth and track is UK Met Fax charts as linked above. By late Saturday we will have the actual position, sat piccs over the top of it, surface data as it nears the UK and a fairly good idea by that stage, back to basic forecast meteorology, of its likely track. I may do a jh watch this low from early Saturday-good fun unless you are in line for any damaging winds which may occur with it.

[radiohead]

[Chris K]

Why do people post about what their 'gut' says, is this some strange internal variable that the Met Office are not taking into account?

 

Well they could be refering to similar developments in the past and have this 'gut feeling' how the models may change over the next couple of days.

 

Particularly if they have been model watching for some time and are used to how each model changes in certain scenarios towards T+0

[mistyqueen]

I'm sure all our friends in the outer hebridies and northern isles are wondering what the fuss is all about.

Yes indeedy! Be interesting to see how it pans out. I just hope not too much damage is done and that no-one gets hurt!

Edited October 24, 2013 by mistyqueen

[Coast]

Why do people post about what their 'gut' says, is this some strange internal variable that the Met Office are not taking into account?

 

In the same way that some people can back horses and win regularly or have a good idea who might win a football match. They study these things for years and gain a good overall sense of what may happen in any given scenario. Remember, even the MetO with all the science they have to hand, use human judgment (skill, knowledge, experience etc) to add to their charts and forecasts. 

[ukpaul]

Well they could be refering to similar developments in the past and have this 'gut feeling' how the models may change over the next couple of days.

 

Particularly if they have been model watching for some time and are used to how each model changes in certain scenarios towards T+0

 

I just prefer to follow what those who get paid for this are saying, I know they aren't always right but if someone tells me to take care I'm not going to ignore that (n.b. Guildford appears to be around the current firing line so I'm following this more closely than I otherwise would).

[Tamara]

Well they could be refering to similar developments in the past and have this 'gut feeling' how the models may change over the next couple of days.

 

Particularly if they have been model watching for some time and are used to how each model changes in certain scenarios towards T+0

I agree with this - past experience in similar set-up scenarios in no way guarantees any future/imminent outcome, but it can prove very useful and a good further learning mechanism as the reality plays out.

[Summer Sun]

At the moment this is the track the met office think it will take

 

 

At the moment it looks as if Scotland and Northern Ireland will miss this storm

 

What still remains unknown is where the centre of the low will reach its deepest if its just to west or east of the UK we may avoid the worst of it if not then it could be a nasty storm, just a good job the kids are off school next week

Edited October 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[cobbett]

Metoffice's Dan Suri talking about Monday's storm

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne3rDk1XM5M

[VillagePlank]

GEFS 06z Heathrow Analysis,

 

[Gael_Force]

Years if not decades of weather watching can have an affect on people mega computers are one thing, human nature, instinct and gut feeling perhaps another. We've had that in some shape or form way before even electricity was discovered.

 

Well, our ancestors hung entrails on their trees - electricity allows us to replace them with twinkly lights - doesn't mean that we are any less visceral in our inner workings!

[ukpaul]

At the moment this is the track the met office this it will take

 

 

 

At the moment it looks as if Scotland and Northern Ireland will miss this storm

 

What still remains unknown is where the centre of the low will reach its deepest if its just to west or east of the UK we may avoid the worst of it if not then it could be a nasty storm, just a good job the kids are off school next week

 

Actually, kids might be better off in school rather than being out in it; depends on the timing of course, rush hour and the whole of the south east will come to a standstill.....

[legritter]

Certainly a very interesting spell of weather coming up ,it will be interesting to see how the Modells handle the track of the low and its possible Make up over the coming days .i can remember very well the great storm of 1987 ,as i visited parts of the hit area a couple of days later ,also the burns day storm which caused more fatalitys as it hit during the day when more people were about ,not tucked up in bed .this as usual is going to be a hard one to call but with modern technology i think by late tomorrow we should get a fair idea ,so of interest will be FAX charts ,forget in my opinion Newspaper talk as this is usually out of date come publication time .so the potential is very much there in my opinion ,there are alot of non believers out there in the capabilitys of forecasting ,and im sure its mainly down to what they read in certain papers and chinese wispers that follow ,but we have a very professional Met office in my opinion who stick to the facts ,atleast we have something in our hobby to get a bit excited about and discuss on the forum ,with always bearing in mind that others find freak weather nasty and frightening .

[PolarWarsaw]

Why do people post about what their 'gut' says, is this some strange internal variable that the Met Office are not taking into account?

 

Gut can be quite frankly, about as clear as the multi million pound model production at this stage. Does is state anywhere in here that you must provide factual back up to your every post? I don't think so, a forum is a community where opinions and feelings are exactly the main 'feature' most topics need. If that's an issue, the ignore button is your friend. 

Edited October 24, 2013 by PolarWarsaw