no air frost PROSPECT OF NO AIR FROST TIL NOVEMBER- SUCKS!

[cyclonic happiness]

Ian, I don't get what was special about the strength of the winds. The thing that made this storm different was the track....it took a rare track across S England. Normally depressions of that strength plough across Scotland. 99 MPH was supposedly the top wind speed in a very exposed, southerly location off the mainland. 99MPH is frequently recorded in places such as Mumbles, Capel Curig, and further N etc.

 

Still, it was a noteworthy event, and for some a deadly one unfortunately.

If there was only one 'good' point to come out of yesterday's storm, it would be that the jet is the 'right' side of the UK and it wouldn't take much to get it further south and so aid a colder winter.

 

I must admit I haven't even looked at what the jet is doing over the past couple of days, but I can tell it's more or less over middle England :-D

 

 

 

I remember that October in 2006, I'm sure it's wasn't really all that warm during the days here, but the lack of frost was remarkable! 

I don't even think we got an air frost here until the second week of November if I remember rightly?

 

It was really strange going out to harvest holly for wreath making, with all the leaves still on the oak trees all around.

 

And then the following year the weather did it's little 'flip' to the patterns we've become used to up until this summer.

 

Maybe it's 'flipped' back again to pre-2007 type weather?  (I hope not :-D)

[iapennell]

Midnight overnight 29th/30th October: The last chance of an air frost this October is well and truly fluffed!  The forecast for tonight was for this little ridge of high pressure following somewhat colder west/NW winds.  But there is patchy cloud, high humidity at 98%, a strong (20 mph) Westerly is blowing  and the temperature is 5.3C here at over 400 metres up in the North Pennines!!  Tomorrow night the wind is back to SW'ly with cloud and rain- then were into November!

 

So I have to say that (provisionally at least), and report with sadness that we have our first air-frost free October for nine years- and no air frost 'til November.  What a rubbish autumn this has been! 

[Gaz1985]

Midnight overnight 29th/30th October: The last chance of an air frost this October is well and truly fluffed!  The forecast for tonight was for this little ridge of high pressure following somewhat colder west/NW winds.  But there is patchy cloud, high humidity at 98%, a strong (20 mph) Westerly is blowing  and the temperature is 5.3C here at over 400 metres up in the North Pennines!!  Tomorrow night the wind is back to SW'ly with cloud and rain- then were into November!

 

So I have to say that (provisionally at least), and report with sadness that we have our first air-frost free October for nine years- and no air frost 'til November.  What a rubbish autumn this has been! 

 

Believe it or not just because you live high up it doesn't mean you get more frosts than everywhere else, you do get more snow because higher ground has lower dew points plus you get "orographic lifting" which gives heavier precipitation.

 

But strangely lower ground in valley's and glens usually get more frosts than high ground because there's less wind and other factors like this >>>>>>http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Edited October 30, 2013 by Gaz1985

[chubbyfan]

also cold air is heavy and collects in hollows or basins,

 

could be a frost tonight somewhere..

[The PIT]

Having no frosts in October isn't that uncommon.

Still a nice frosty still morning is quite pleasant.

[Mark Neal.]

Down to 1.2c here in the outskirts of Oxford.

[chubbyfan]

aviemore and somewhere called shoben (midlands) were below 0c 32f..according to the met office's 6am readings.

[Polar Maritime]

Air Frost here and slight ground frost...

Edit- no air frost only ground.

Edited October 30, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Boro Snow]

This day last year we woke to snow on the ground, not all bad though ive just had to use the De-icer for the first time this autumn currently it's 2.1 c

[picog]

First frost here, most of night at 1.0C or lower, with a minimum of -0.3C! Lovely white grass this morning. What a treat!

[Interitus]

Frost as far south as Bournemouth airport recording -0.1°C this morning. Looks like Benson, usually one of the first in southern England, missed out at 0.1°C unless it dipped below shortly after 6am but probably unlikely as it was above 2 degrees by 7am.

[Mesoscale]

No frost at all in my small part of the earth, im in a quite built up area so I didn't expect it to get ground frost let alone air frost.Least we got some frost before November at least!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

minimum temp here last night was 4.3c at 7:19am, currently 7.1c

[Average Joe]

An unpopular take on things I know, but it's lovely to have had the heating on so far this autumn. Indeed I've even had windows flung wide open at night. Long may it continue!! 

 

*Shuffles away from thread* 

[smithyweather]

Think there will be a frost next Monday to be honest looking at the GFS. That will be my second frost of the season. 

 

Definitive cooling lately, with a forecast high of just 6c on Saturday. If that isn't cold for 1st November I don't know what is. There might even be some snow down to 400m.

[Don]

I had to scrape the car for the 1st time this morning so I can now say I've had a frost this October!

[iapennell]

I had to scrape the car for the 1st time this morning so I can now say I've had a frost this October!

 Some folk were lucky it seems- and got their air frost!  Alas, here in the North Pennines the wind stayed up til dawn and it only dropped to 3C (with a slight grass frost in sheltered locations): Hey- I even went out and did my little Frost Dance- all to no avail!

 

One other big culprit for our crap mild October (other than warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic (following our warm summer) and slightly more Arctic Ice in the Canadian Arctic than last year- all of which is just asking for southerlies and south-westerlies over Britain):  Sunspot maximum- strong solar storms interact with our Earth as it orbits the sun- and cause outside forces (through the impact of charged particles upon the Earth's Magnetic Field) that intensify the Westerly Momentum of the atmosphere globally- this excess momentum feeds down through the atmosphere in the form of stronger-than-usual Ferrel Westerlies in higher latitudes; hence less chance of high-latitude blocks, less chance of Arctic snaps over Britain.  High sunspot activity correlates with autumn/winters dominated by stronger westerlies, less likelihood of Arctic spells, other things being equal:  I am looking forward to our new Maunder Minimum over the next 50 years with correspondingly less chance of disastrously mild autumns like 2013 is conclusively proving to be here!!

 

At the last Solar Maximum in 2001 was the last time the air temperature did not get below 3C in October (and no air frost)- winter 2001/02 was (for the most part) mild and wet! 

Tonight it is 5C and clouded over- Autumn 2013 is now a complete Write Off!!!

[Boro Snow]

quite a few people will hopefully get a few nights frost sat night through to monday night 

[cheese]

Looking good for widespread air frost.

 

Edited October 31, 2013 by cheese

[cheese]

Mm.. yes please.

 

[iapennell]

 Some folk were lucky it seems- and got their air frost!  Alas, here in the North Pennines the wind stayed up til dawn and it only dropped to 3C (with a slight grass frost in sheltered locations): Hey- I even went out and did my little Frost Dance- all to no avail!

 

One other big culprit for our crap mild October (other than warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic (following our warm summer) and slightly more Arctic Ice in the Canadian Arctic than last year- all of which is just asking for southerlies and south-westerlies over Britain):  Sunspot maximum- strong solar storms interact with our Earth as it orbits the sun- and cause outside forces (through the impact of charged particles upon the Earth's Magnetic Field) that intensify the Westerly Momentum of the atmosphere globally- this excess momentum feeds down through the atmosphere in the form of stronger-than-usual Ferrel Westerlies in higher latitudes; hence less chance of high-latitude blocks, less chance of Arctic snaps over Britain.  High sunspot activity correlates with autumn/winters dominated by stronger westerlies, less likelihood of Arctic spells, other things being equal:  I am looking forward to our new Maunder Minimum over the next 50 years with correspondingly less chance of disastrously mild autumns like 2013 is conclusively proving to be here!!

 

At the last Solar Maximum in 2001 was the last time the air temperature did not get below 3C in October (and no air frost)- winter 2001/02 was (for the most part) mild and wet! 

Tonight it is 5C and clouded over- Autumn 2013 is now a complete Write Off!!!

 

 

 

0000 GMT 1st November- IT IS OFFICIAL:  NO AIR FROST UNTIL NOVEMBER THIS YEAR:  AUTUMN 2013 IS INDEED A WRITE OFF!

 

PS- Another culprit for this sorry state of affairs is thousands of Praying Mantrisses- of the Human sort: They all pray to the Good Lord in September/early October (and then whenever a frost looks possible): "PLEASE, PLEASE God protect our dahlias and marigolds from any frost- PLEASE Keep the Frost away" (I have long had a suspicion that my sister prays against frost to protect Mum's flowers- they're still blooming!).  Just what is Almighty God to do when thousands of Christians beg Him to spare them from the progress of the season??!!  God is merciful, and answers prayers much of the time (even quite selfish prayers); I would always be out-voted because more people pray for mild weather than for cold!!!  Shukks!      

[smithyweather]

Frost tonight and Sunday night.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

It's looking like Tuesday morning will be the coldest so far this autumn in the south east region.

 

Closest we're going to get to a ground frost so far looks like 2.4c or there abouts, I'm in quite a built up area so I reckon some of the more remote areas may just see their first ground frost down here 

 

Here's hoping the temperature forecasts will lower a bit further before Tuesday!

 

[iapennell]

Noon on Sat. 2nd November 2013:

 

FINALLY with clear skies overnight and light winds the air temperature dropped to 0C at Hayring Farm, near Nenthead (five miles from Alston) in the North Pennines.  But facts are facts- there was (as I feared) no air frost in October at all!!!!  Therefore it is too late now- Autumn 2013 was a write off for its total absence of air frost throughout:  I don't really consider November to be an autumn month but a winter month here- the days are very short, the sun low in the sky- and net radiation (given clear skies) is strongly negative; the Arctic and Russia become bitterly cold in November- so the potential (if not actuarily) given the right combination of conditions is for severe wintry weather almost as cold in November as could occur in January/February.  

 

So yes, the autumn of 2013 has been a disaster for its total lack of strong radiation cooling/frost episodes here:- on the just two potentially frosty clear nights there were (as overnight 29th/30th October) the Ferrel Westerlies remained stiff and gusty.   The dahlias and marigolds are still blooming in my mother's garden, and the ash trees still have green leaves.  And last night a moth made its way into our kitchen and landed in my drink- this all feels horribly out of place going into November!

Normally there should be no flowers anywhere, and no leaves on the trees up here at 400 metres above sea level in the North Pennines by the start of November- the progress of the winter is some 15 days behind schedule!!

Edited November 2, 2013 by iapennell

[Weather-history]

""The few nocturnal frosts that occurred in the present season, up to the middle of December were so slight as to permit the nasturtiums to continue to vegetate: other indications of the mildness of the season were equally striking. I observed a horse-chestnut with tufts of new leaves and blossoms put forth from the ends of the branches all over the tree."

"The extraordinary growth of mushrooms, this autumn, makes a kind of second harvest for the industrious poor in most parts of the islands, some of whom have gathered from three to five pecks daily."

"John Foster of newton near Carlisle, has a single tree in his orchard which has, this year, produced ten thousand apples."

"An apple tree in the garden of D. Sutton at Kensington, is now covered with a second full crop of apples and there are several others in the same garden which have also produce this year, though not in such abundance."

Stockholm: Nov 17:- The uncommonly serene and mild autumnal weather still continues and now supplies us in abundance with garden produce, of which we were deprived during the summer by the great drought. To be without fire in the stoves and to have meadows covered with verdure instead of snow; is a strange phenomenon here in the month of November."

"A thorn tree growing in the lawn of Shugborough, the seat of Lord Anson, is now in full blossom and the whole tree presents a May-like appearance." Dec 1st

"Among the many instances of the extraordinary temperature of the present season, may be mentioned that from the garden of Thomas Newton of Clapham Common, green peas of full growth were gathered a day or two ago, and the haulm still now in full blossom."

The year?

1818

"In the garden of G. Dickson, of Cousland, Berwickshire, a tulip-tree in full blossom, which is the second time it was ever known to be in that state. The last time this tree was in blossom was in the year 1720, 98 years ago." Dec 2nd