no air frost PROSPECT OF NO AIR FROST TIL NOVEMBER- SUCKS!

[iapennell]

""The few nocturnal frosts that occurred in the present season, up to the middle of December were so slight as to permit the nasturtiums to continue to vegetate: other indications of the mildness of the season were equally striking. I observed a horse-chestnut with tufts of new leaves and blossoms put forth from the ends of the branches all over the tree.""The extraordinary growth of mushrooms, this autumn, makes a kind of second harvest for the industrious poor in most parts of the islands, some of whom have gathered from three to five pecks daily.""John Foster of newton near Carlisle, has a single tree in his orchard which has, this year, produced ten thousand apples.""An apple tree in the garden of D. Sutton at Kensington, is now covered with a second full crop of apples and there are several others in the same garden which have also produce this year, though not in such abundance."Stockholm: Nov 17:- The uncommonly serene and mild autumnal weather still continues and now supplies us in abundance with garden produce, of which we were deprived during the summer by the great drought. To be without fire in the stoves and to have meadows covered with verdure instead of snow; is a strange phenomenon here in the month of November.""A thorn tree growing in the lawn of Shugborough, the seat of Lord Anson, is now in full blossom and the whole tree presents a May-like appearance." Dec 1st"Among the many instances of the extraordinary temperature of the present season, may be mentioned that from the garden of Thomas Newton of Clapham Common, green peas of full growth were gathered a day or two ago, and the haulm still now in full blossom."The year?1818"In the garden of G. Dickson, of Cousland, Berwickshire, a tulip-tree in full blossom, which is the second time it was ever known to be in that state. The last time this tree was in blossom was in the year 1720, 98 years ago." Dec 2nd

  And of course, 1818 was during the latter phases Little Ice Age.  That said, it seems there were still some slight frosts in the mild autumns then (and that was in the South).

 

Would there have been a year when the temperature did not drop below 3C until November in the North Pennines then?  Maybe, but until 1989 I cannot recall any October without an air frost whatsoever!

[Summer Sun]

If you can trust GFS something wintery may happen next weekend

 

A while off yet in weather terms but next weekend looks darn chilly in the north

 

These are the max temps from GFS

 

 

The pennines and Lakes would be turning white if it comes off

 

[hillbilly]

The council have given the most accurate forcast yet...frost tonight...as they are gritting all the roads!!!!!  What a waste of money!!!!!

[Skullzrulerz]

The council have given the most accurate forcast yet...frost tonight...as they are gritting all the roads!!!!!  What a waste of money!!!!!

I wonder how much money has gone down the drain.

[Isolated Frost]

Well, it was a VERY mild autumn when it came to minima, but an air frost on the morning of the 2nd (counts as the 1st meteorologically, 0900-0900), and potentially another tonight (1.3c at 0000), that's 2 in 3 days. Very brisk, much more fresh than of recent.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

If only tonight stayed clear my area may have seen it's first ground frost!

 

As you can see the cloud starts rolling in around 3am, I reckon if the sky stayed clear I could've seen an air temp of maybe the low 2's by 7am! 

 

EDIT: Actually I've only just seen the predicted ground temps, all hope is lost now  At least tonight will be the coldest here so far this autumn! 

 

Minimum temp so far seen this season is 4.3c, that was the morning of Halloween!

Edited November 4, 2013 by Essex Easterly.

[AderynCoch]

Yay, frost!

[Snowyowl9]

First surprise ground frost this morning,the car was all covered in ice.

[cheese]

-2.0C was the low yesterday, and we had another frost tonight, which is still visible now, but it's overcast.

 

I think our growing season is probably over now - goodbye lawn mower, until next year.

[Stargazer]

No air frost here yet, but one ground frost in October and it came close to a ground frost last night before the cloud arrived.  The first air frost of the season is typically in early-mid November here.

[Summer Sun]

Had a frost last night however cloud and rain moved in overnight to lift it

[iapennell]

In retrospect, I might perhaps have expected the very mild and frostless October we had in 2013- we had our coldest March since 1979 (mean temperature was -0.9C) in the North Pennines!  In previous years very cold marches (mean temp below 2C) were followed by mild Octobers in 1969, 1985, 1995 (no air frost, though -3C occurred in Sept 1995!), 1996, 2001 (no air frost) and 2006.  Maybe it is just a coincidence, and there is no logical reason why a cold spring should make  the following October mild.  This apparent singulary does not hold the other way;  Mild Marches do NOT mean cold Octobers following:  Mild Octobers followed the mild Marches of 1988, 1989 (no air frost that October), 1990, 2004 (no air frost that October), 2005, 2009 and 2011.

 

It is plausible (not always inevitable) that cold March/April periods are followed by fine (and thus warm) summers- if the seas are cooled around/east of Britain this could encourage the upper westerlies to "curve south" (i.e. clockwise) over and east of the UK- that means more possible anticyclonic activity leading to fine summers.  High-pressure over Britain and lots of sunshine in the summer warms the seas around our shores, and southerlies west of the high-pressure warm the NE Atlantic.  This could then lead to a warmer than usual NE Atlantic going into autumn leading to lower pressure there (and the North Sea retaining a bit of the chill from the spring- despite strong summer sunshine would encourage higher pressure there) going into autumn.  This sets the scene for southerlies and SW'lies and a warm October!!

 

My take is that singularities like this may have a grain of truth in them, but they are not at all reliable forecasting tools:  It just so happens that in the last forty years the general distributions of Arctic sea-ice, North Atlantic temperatures and the overall radiation budget across the wider Northern Hemisphere have been such that the wider weather patterns responsible for bitter cold east winds in early spring over Britain happen to have been accompanied by (say) warmer southerlies and SE winds over the North Atlantic- setting in train changes to sea-surface temperatures that would lead to summer warmth and subsequent mild autumns.

What do you think?    

[iapennell]

-2.0C was the low yesterday, and we had another frost tonight, which is still visible now, but it's overcast.

 

I think our growing season is probably over now - goodbye lawn mower, until next year.

 

There was snow on the fells of the North Pennines this morning- above 550 metres' elevation!  Winter is surely here.

[Costa Del Fal]

Frost? Eh? Sizzling 13c here. Hehe.

Edited November 6, 2013 by Blizzards

[AderynCoch]

There was snow on the fells of the North Pennines this morning- above 550 metres' elevation!  Winter is surely here.

 

You should take the road up to Killhope Cross (over 600m) to experience some snow. If it's still there of course.

 

 

Frost? Eh? Sizzling 13c here. Hehe.

 

Poor thing.

[iapennell]

In retrospect, I might perhaps have expected the very mild and frostless October we had in 2013- we had our coldest March since 1979 (mean temperature was -0.9C) in the North Pennines!  In previous years very cold marches (mean temp below 2C) were followed by mild Octobers in 1969, 1985, 1995 (no air frost, though -3C occurred in Sept 1995!), 1996, 2001 (no air frost) and 2006.  Maybe it is just a coincidence, and there is no logical reason why a cold spring should make  the following October mild.  This apparent singulary does not hold the other way;  Mild Marches do NOT mean cold Octobers following:  Mild Octobers followed the mild Marches of 1988, 1989 (no air frost that October), 1990, 2004 (no air frost that October), 2005, 2009 and 2011.

 

It is plausible (not always inevitable) that cold March/April periods are followed by fine (and thus warm) summers- if the seas are cooled around/east of Britain this could encourage the upper westerlies to "curve south" (i.e. clockwise) over and east of the UK- that means more possible anticyclonic activity leading to fine summers.  High-pressure over Britain and lots of sunshine in the summer warms the seas around our shores, and southerlies west of the high-pressure warm the NE Atlantic.  This could then lead to a warmer than usual NE Atlantic going into autumn leading to lower pressure there (and the North Sea retaining a bit of the chill from the spring- despite strong summer sunshine would encourage higher pressure there) going into autumn.  This sets the scene for southerlies and SW'lies and a warm October!!

 

My take is that singularities like this may have a grain of truth in them, but they are not at all reliable forecasting tools:  It just so happens that in the last forty years the general distributions of Arctic sea-ice, North Atlantic temperatures and the overall radiation budget across the wider Northern Hemisphere have been such that the wider weather patterns responsible for bitter cold east winds in early spring over Britain happen to have been accompanied by (say) warmer southerlies and SE winds over the North Atlantic- setting in train changes to sea-surface temperatures that would lead to summer warmth and subsequent mild autumns.

What do you think?

 

EDIT:

 

The Sunspot Cycle, I think plays a bigger role:  When it is near its peak the Solar Constant is some 1 to 2 Watts per square metre higher (on average)- this is a warming influence, and the strong solar flares that impact on the Earth's magnetic Field (this causes more aurora in the Arctic and Antarctic) impacts the Earth in such a way to speed up the upper Westerlies encircling the Arctic.  This decreases the likelihood of blocking and bitter Arctic snaps in autumn and early winter.

 

The last 50 years of the Sunspot Cycle are here:

 

Trough: 1964; Peak: 1969-70; Trough: 1976-77;  Peak: 1980-81;  Trough: 1986-87;  Peak  1989-90;  Trough: 1995-96;  Peak: 2000-01;  Trough: 2006-07;   Peak:  2012-13.

(the Cycles are not all exactly 11.5 years- some are a bit shorter, some are longer.  That's because it is not just the effect of Jupiter's orbit one must consider- all the planets have an influence on the Sun and cause the maximum tugs to occur at varying times)

 

The very mild Autumns that I have recorded at Hayring Farm (with no air frost 'til November)- 1989, 2001, 2004, 2013 all bar one (2004) occur near the peak of Sunspot Cycles.  The weather patterns producing cold preceding Marches (when these have occurred close to sunspot peaks) may be an additional factor.  It is worth noting that when I have recorded cold Marches during troughs in the sunspot cycle during the 1980s- March 1984,  March 1986 and March 1987 spring to mind the ensuing Octobers were either average or cold.    October 1985 followed a very cold March earlier in the year- it was mild and dry (though not exceptionally mild) and air frost still occurred late that month.  The Arctic ice was, of course more extensive in 1980's autumns and temperatures in the Barents Sea were lower- this will have had a profound impact on possible blocking:  A three-wave circumpolar Westerlies pattern usually means warm southerlies or SW winds over Britain in October, but if the European Arctic is cold and blocking occurs there as a result colder, drier easterly winds could prevail in Britain in October meaning more chance of night frosts!  

 

Winters near troughs in the Sunspot Cycles tend to be colder, and more prone to blocking for reasons as given above:  Runs of mild winters- 1987/88, 1988/89 and 1989/90 spring to mind- tend to occur near peaks in sunspot activity, although other factors such as a gradual climatic warming causing the Eurasian Arctic to become ice-free, a warming North Atlantic, etc is probably responsible for recent mild winters (by encouraging stronger westerlies) even when the sunspot cycle has been near trough (i.e. 1994/5, 1997/8,  2003/4, 2004/5, 2006/7, 2007/8).

 

Ian Pennell 

 

     

[iapennell]

You should take the road up to Killhope Cross (over 600m) to experience some snow. If it's still there of course.

 

 

 

 

Snow has all gone today- sadly!

[n1russ]

coldest temp here so was in essex was only 2.1C still no decent frost here yet either its pants

[Coast]

Lowest overnight (actually achieved an hour ago) was 11.5°C so no chance of frost here on the coast yet. GFS throwing up some colder figures for Sunday morning in the SE: