Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[Coast]

BBC latest:

 

 

Warnings over storm due to hit England and Wales

 

Weather forecasters have warned of stormy conditions in England and Wales on Sunday night and Monday. A Met Office amber alert of high winds in southern Wales and southern England now includes much of the Midlands, the East, and London and the South East. People are being warned of the risk of falling trees and damage to buildings, with gusts of up to 80 mph (120 kph), possibly higher around exposed coasts. There is also concern heavy rain could cause surface water flooding.

 

A yellow alert predicting heavy rain on Monday covers the whole of England and Wales. It is the lowest level of the three warnings issued by the Met Office, and advises people to "be aware".bAn amber alert, advising people to "be prepared" for potentially hazardous conditions, is one level up from this.

 

BBC Weather presenter Peter Gibbs said a strong Atlantic jet stream was providing the "driving force" for the storm. The strongest winds are expected on the storm's southern and western flanks. Forecasters said a "very intense low pressure system" would bring the potential for strong winds, especially on exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent.

 

'Significant disruption'

 

The Met Office said the public "should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies". The storm is expected to run across the country in a north-eastwardly direction, but there is still some doubt about the timing. Eddy Carroll, chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: "This storm doesn't exist at the moment, but our forecast models predict it is likely to develop in the west Atlantic on Saturday. "Then it's likely to rapidly intensify just west of the UK late on Sunday before tracking across England and Wales early on Monday. "There is still a chance this storm may take a more southerly track and miss the UK, bringing impacts elsewhere in northern Europe, but people should be aware there is a risk of severe weather and significant disruption."

 

The AA said stormy conditions could cause "significant travel disruption on Monday morning... one of the busiest times on the roads". Darron Burness, head of the AA's flood rescue team, said: "Strong wind and torrential rain is an unpredictable and hazardous combination, which can be quite overwhelming when you're driving. "There's likely to be tree and other debris on the roads as well potential flooding, so it's very important to keep your speed down and drive with great care." Jill Attenborough, of the Woodland Trust, said 15 million UK trees fell in the infamous storm of 1987, and warned more trees were now "exposed" because of reduction to woodland areas for the building of roads, railways and housing.

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24674537

[Coast]

 

The low can now be tracked as it crosses the Atlantic using web sites with surface data, or infra red satellite shots, both stills and moview camera types. As it nears the UK then some weather buoys will aloow us to see how rapidly it is deepening before it comes on to land.

 

Just to add to that John, Channel weather/wave station real-time data can be found here:

 

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/

 

Click on the map at the point of interest for more details

[Storme]

I too don't post much but have decided to log in as I now live in a rural area with overhead power in Surrey.

I also shamefully slept through the entire '87 storm. And yes if my OH is reading this, it is me.

I am actually starting to worry. The overhead cables go through our garden and near the house.

[Terminal Moraine]

This mornings charts have shifted things south as Derby now looks to miss this with a bog standard wet and windy day here. Things look serious to the south of the UK though, especially on the south coast and then the SE later. Infact, the SE could have the strongest winds of all with Kent the likely place to see the highest gusts.

 

For me, the winds tonight look more intense than Sunday night/Monday with gusts around the 50-60mph mark.

Based on the current runs I would think Derbyshire will experience the strongest winds from the W/NW as the low pressure moves away to the east. There's still the potential for gusts of 60-70 mph, even at lower levels, as there's a tight squeeze of the isobars on the western flank of the depression.

This is certainly not a done deal however as the low is barely a gleam in its' mothers/fathers eye at the moment and slight changes of track, speed and intensity could have significant implications for areas which are currently on the margins of the most severe weather.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Right what do we need to buy to prepare for this beast? I'm off shopping ... lol ...

[chionomaniac]

One good thing. Thankfully it is half term next week, and there will not be the usual school run or children walking to school at the worst time for the strong winds on Monday morning. I am off from work too and will be keeping mine indoors. I won't even be driving down to the coast for photo opportunities!

[karlos1983]

Right what do we need to buy to prepare for this beast? I'm off shopping ... lol ...

Beer

[Cold Winter]

Today is the day we find out if the met office goes red

There was an interview on Radio 4 this morning talking to the chief forecaster at the Met who said if the warnings go red, it'll probably be at some point on Sunday.

[Coast]

 

Storm forecasts can change last minute, warns Michael Fish

 

Weatherman Michael Fish, who famously failed to predict the 1987 storm, urged people to keep checking the forecasts as the storm path could change Veteran weatherman Michael Fish warned people to “batten down the hatches†and keep checking the forecasts as a powerful storm heads for British shores. The TV legend, who famously failed to predict the Great Storm of 1987, said it is too early to calculate exactly what form the impending gale would take. He advised people to keep checking the weather forecasts and alerts regularly as “things can change very fast, like they did in 1987â€.

 

Mr Fish, 69, who still records a weekly forecast for netweather.tv, said: “It is very early days, it is not yet exactly clear what’s going to happen. “There’s a favoured track at the moment which takes the storm path from South Wales across to the Humber which means everything to the south of this will be hit. “The Met Office are predicting 80mph winds, which is not actually as strong as the infamous 1987 storm. vBut until it gets a lot nearer it is hard to tell.

 

“It hasn’t developed into a proper storm system yet, the computers are mapping this before it has happened and giving the South West to the Humber as its path, which would mean everything south of this could be affected by 80mph winds while to the north they will see heavy rain and possible flooding. “Northern Ireland and Scotland will be watching and laughing, they’re quite used to weather like this anyway.†Former Meteorological Office and BBC forecaster Mr Fish denies that he ever dismissed predictions of the 1987 storm, as was widely reported at the time. He said: “It was the computer that did the forecast, Bill Giles who did the presentation and I took the rap

 

“That storm was forecast five days in advance and it changed course at the last minute. “This storm could do the same, because it is early very days, in which case we will escape it and France will be hit. “My advice to people is simply batten down the hatches and for heaven’s sake keep listening or checking the forecasts because these things do change at the last minute. “We have 36 to 48 hours before this storm reaches us and a lot can happen in that time.

 

“But it’s probably best not to plan any long journeys on Sunday night.â€

 

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10405947/Storm-forecasts-can-change-last-minute-warns-Michael-Fish.html

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Computer says ..."Be Prepared", so as well as an afternoon out with the kids, and trying to drag myself away from the laptop and netweather ...I suppose It'd be prudent to do as the met office suggest.

 

Without going overboard, I'm thinking of a recce around the garden to secure bits and bobs etc, getting torches, candles, and matches sorted and sharpening my chainsaw. Any other ideas?

Ooooh I forgot about candles! I better check those in a minute ... Is it wrong to be excited at the same time as terrified?! Torches hmmm better check the batteries in fact I dont know where 1 torch is even and its the best one! ...

[Skullzrulerz]

There was an interview on Radio 4 this morning talking to the chief forecaster at the Met who said if the warnings go red, it'll probably be at some point on Sunday.

The warnings will be updated Saturday morning.Thats on their website.

[Coast]

Right what do we need to buy to prepare for this beast? I'm off shopping ... lol ...

 

Not chocolate, handbags and shoes Beka!

[Polar Maritime]

Based on the current runs I would think Derbyshire will experience the strongest winds from the W/NW as the low pressure moves away to the east. There's still the potential for gusts of 60-70 mph, even at lower levels, as there's a tight squeeze of the isobars on the western flank of the depression.

This is certainly not a done deal however as the low is barely a gleam in its' mothers/fathers eye at the moment and slight changes of track, speed and intensity could have significant implications for areas which are currently on the margins of the most severe weather.

 

Thanks for that TM ! Hopefully this storm will produce something eventful for these parts...

Edited October 26, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I have just done my recce round the garden,and ordered a non electrical phone for £4 from argos (assuming phone lines don't go down too!)I am rural so power and phone are all above ground and swing like skipping ropes in high winds.for kids get them to keep all hand held things like DS,or PSP so they have something to keep amused for a while with,and dig out car chargers for mobiles.I haven't had the potential for significant power issues for quite some years,but is filling the kettle and a few pans for tea sensible?I am ok as we have calor gas....so sadly I shall still be having to cook!Its my mission for today to ensure the washing is up to date and the dishwasher has no backlog,just in case those wonderful things wont work!maybe if you are reliant on mains for cooking perhaps if you have a camping stove,dig it out and make sure its got gas so you can have a brew?

 

Oooh yes non electronic phone! I better get that out the garage too ...

[Evening thunder]

Today is the day we find out if the met office goes red.

Since i live in cornwall and on a hill the winds will be stronger.

 

 

I think if a red warning is issued it's likely to be tomorrow, and possibly only if the storm is on the stronger side of current predictions, if gusts are towards the lower end of possibilities or don't go above 70-80mph in exposed places I'd guess it will stay orange, though that is just my guess.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Stormmad26

[dubmuffin]

Anyone know if warnings are being put out in France too in case it does a sudden southery track?

[Dan the Man]

Definition of Met Office weather warnings for wind:

 

RED:

Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down.Risk to personal safety from flying debris.Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power.Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees.

 

AMBER:

More widespread tree damage & other debris, slates etc dislodged from roofs.Some minor structural damage possible.Risk of injury from flying debris.BE PREPARED for some travel disruption e.g. closed bridges.Potential for some localised interruptions to power.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Computer says ..."Be Prepared", so as well as an afternoon out with the kids, and trying to drag myself away from the laptop and netweather ...I suppose It'd be prudent to do as the met office suggest.

 

Without going overboard, I'm thinking of a recce around the garden to secure bits and bobs etc, getting torches, candles, and matches sorted and sharpening my chainsaw. Any other ideas?

Tinned food???

[NickR]

Tinned food???

LOL

 

It's not going to blow away all the shops or render life Blitz-like! Having a torch and some candles is more than enough "provisions" to get in.

[LadyEv06]

One good thing. Thankfully it is half term next week, and there will not be the usual school run or children walking to school at the worst time for the strong winds on Monday morning. I am off from work too and will be keeping mine indoors. I won't even be driving down to the coast for photo opportunities!

certainly not half term everywhere, we've had the past week off - hopefully my area will miss the most severe weather though!

[Biggin]

I too don't post much but have decided to log in as I now live in a rural area with overhead power in Surrey.I also shamefully slept through the entire '87 storm. And yes if my OH is reading this, it is me.I am actually starting to worry. The overhead cables go through our garden and near the house.

Go to bed with ya wellys on ??

[karlos1983]

"Significant Tornado Parameter" - sounds like a silly question, but what does this mean?

 

Showing the Benelux and East of England in black 50>. Does this mean the chances of a significant tornado within a point, are 50% or above?

 

The ingredients are there; could be one of the strongest tornadoes ever recorded in the UK possibly on Monday?

 

I love extreme weather, however, I don't really want to have Tornadoes spawning, especially if it is occurring during the night thanks.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I have just done my recce round the garden,and ordered a non electrical phone for £4 from argos (assuming phone lines don't go down too!)I am rural so power and phone are all above ground and swing like skipping ropes in high winds.for kids get them to keep all hand held things like DS,or PSP so they have something to keep amused for a while with,and dig out car chargers for mobiles.I haven't had the potential for significant power issues for quite some years,but is filling the kettle and a few pans for tea sensible?I am ok as we have calor gas....so sadly I shall still be having to cook!Its my mission for today to ensure the washing is up to date and the dishwasher has no backlog,just in case those wonderful things wont work!maybe if you are reliant on mains for cooking perhaps if you have a camping stove,dig it out and make sure its got gas so you can have a brew?

 

 

Stupid question but just normal gas go at all? Im pretty sure it doesnt? But we dont have a camping stove lol... Oh I dont have a car charger either! ...

What do you mean filling kettle and pans? Is that incase we have no water either??

[Summer Sun]

It still looks like the Kent coast is going to cop the worst of the winds later on Monday with the strongest gusts in the English channel but with the way the Kent coast sticks out this areas looks like it could see the worst of the winds

 

[island lad]

Severe storm yes but tornado's - no thanks !