Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Yes we have a baby - so getting in a few extra tins of food to heat on the gas hob - basic cold stuff - batteries and some more matches really isn't that stupid is it?! Chances are it won't be needed but we are on the edge of rural too. Meh whatever rather be prepared and nothing happen than have nothing to feed a screaming baby past a bit of bread and cheese or something. I aint buying for 2 weeks lol. I'm talking maybe 6 cans or so. Will last all winter nicely

[radiohead]

06Z NAE, 974mb, tracks quite a bit further south. Violent storm force in the channel, but strong winds more restricted to the south coast on this run.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

It's not annoying, I think putting into perspective is more apt. You don't see the Met office or news saying get to the shops and stock up on food do you?

 

If it hits as modeled it will cause damage, no question about it, but it is in and out in 12 hours.

A storm might be in and out in 12 hours but cant say if there does end up being a wide power outtage that the power would be back on that quickly!

 

I also didnt hear the news say buy batteries - torches and matches but those of us who were around in 1987 remember quite well what we needed back then!!

 

Oh and yes today is Saturday the day we do go shopping on!!!!

Edited October 26, 2013 by *Stormforce~beka*

[Matty M]

06Z NAE, 974mb, tracks quite a bit further south. Violent storm force in the channel, but strong winds more restricted to the south coast on this run.

 

Some MetO bashing would ensue if their high-res model was correct!

[Bristawl Si]

The NAE wasnt that good for accuracy last winter at short range. Still another 24 hrs to go yet until we're near to actual track

[karlos1983]

A storm might be in and out in 12 hours but cant say if there does end up being a wide power outtage that the power would be back on that quickly!

 

I also didnt hear the news say buy batteries - torches and matches but those of us who were around in 1987 remember quite well what we needed back then!!

 

Fair enough, I guess it's whatever each individual feels comfortable with. 

The NAE wasnt that good for accuracy last winter at short range. Still another 24 hrs to go yet until we're near to actual track

 

It was useless last winter from memory.

[Storme]

Looks interesting Matt. Why are their such variations with different weather runs?

[Plough King]

06Z NAE, 974mb, tracks quite a bit further south. Violent storm force in the channel, but strong winds more restricted to the south coast on this run.

 

 

I think the system has been delayed slightly, run this on 6 - 8 hours and I think the winds would be stronger over the south and east, NAE only goes up to 06:00 on Monday at the moment.

[Optimus Prime]

NAE doesn't have a great track record for winter, maybe it's better for predicting the track and intensity of storms? I'd be more happy going with the other models. Then again maybe it's a trend?

 

PS Just Before Dawn I don't work in emergency planning, I work in Biology so most of this doesn't make any sense to me anyway lol

Edited October 26, 2013 by Optimus Prime

[Just Before Dawn]

It's not annoying, I think putting into perspective is more apt. You don't see the Met office or news saying get to the shops and stock up on food do you? If it hits as modeled it will cause damage, no question about it, but it is in and out in 12 hours.

It's not the the Job of the Met Office to tell you how to prepare for any disruptive event and you won't find any Met Office briefing ever that tells anyone to go out and stock up on food. Why do some people find it so difficult to accept that some people's circumstances might be different to their own and that levels of preparation differ from individual to individual?

[Matty M]

Looks interesting Matt. Why are their such variations with different weather runs?

Ah i wouldn't pay huge attention to the NAE, not the most reliable model.

 

The development is down to timing, it's all about when it undergoes its period of rapid intensification. The later it occurs the further south the storm will run, if it occurs earlier it will track further north.

[karlos1983]

It's not the the Job of the Met Office to tell you how to prepare for any disruptive event and you won't find any Met Office briefing ever that tells anyone to go out and stock up on food. Why do some people find it so difficult to accept that some people's circumstances might be different to their own and that levels of preparation differ from individual to individual?

as I eluded to in my post above.

[Storme]

Ok thanks for that Matt. :-)

[johnholmes]

The warnings will be updated Saturday morning.Thats on their website.

and the point the Chief Forecaster was making will still hold, red alerts if necessary on Sunday not Saturday

[itsnowjoke]

Is there any point in me being worried in my location ?

[CLH the red dragon]

It's worrying, it will cause damage somewhere. I love weather of this type but would rather it didn't happen, in all reality. 

 

But, can I say, who on earth doesn't have enough food to last a few days?!?!??!

[radiohead]

06Z GFS is pretty much identical to the 0Z GFS at 48 hours.

[Supacell]

"These hellicity charts look interesting but I don't understand them. Places that are off the scale on the wind shear, do they often see tornados or is it still very rare even in these perfect setups?

Also lightening is surely going to be quite spectacular in this storm, can we expect some wild looking lightening storms on the southern flank?"

 

Wind shear is one parameter needed for tornadoes to occur, there are many more that need to come together in the right place at the right time. I am no expert on tornadoes etc but I could have a go...Wind shear indicates a differing in wind speeds/direction upwards through a thunderstorm cloud, which helps to separate updrafts and downdrafts allowing a thunderstorm to become organised and last for a period of time rather than pulse out in minutes. You would need this for a tornado to form... but you would also need a mechanism for the winds to turn and create a vortex, this is where helicity comes in. You also need a low condensation level so that storms are surface based and not elevated in nature.

 

I would not imagine there would be much lightning to the south of this system, maybe the odd spark but certainly not spectacular lightning storms. Thunderstorms perhaps more likely to the north and west of the center looking at current charts, but at this range this is speculation at best. Even hurricanes in the US are not generally very electrically active.

 

Edit: Sorry I have deleted the quote part and can't work out how to put them back in to show the previous post as a quote.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Supacell

[johnholmes]

Latest NAE has severest winds missing much of England. Also the 'storm' is much less developed.

 

 

I don't totally agree with that M, it is probably still deepening, it is shown further south but then that is or should be understood by seasoned posters on here as something that will happen as the models zero down to the actual event. Fine tuning you could call it. I am quite amused by folk expecting total precision for 48 hours ahead when the darn thing is only just forming!

[Cold Winter]

 

6z GFS has storm in a pretty similar location to 0z, perhaps very very slightly further north. Same depth at approx 970mb.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Cold Winter

[karlos1983]

The GFS 06z is not interested in changing it's track or intensity.

 

 

[Evening thunder]

I don't really agree about the latest NAE being much less developed, it may be to start and a bit further south but it develops a nastier sting in it's tail with a tighter squeeze in the isobars and stronger winds than the 00z.

 

00z:

 

06z:

 

 

The 06z chart is 6 hours later but it already has the tighter isobars to the SW at 42 hours compared to the 00z at 48 hours.

 

The worst winds may be shown in the channel there, and sustained winds of 40mph+ across part of SW England, with gusts much higher. The sustained winds will show a lot higher out to sea as mean speeds are lower inland, but not so much gusts.

65mph+ sustained in the channel is quite impressive.

 

Also as the low pulls away NE the zone strong winds across the SW and in the channel would probably move NE and encompass much of the S, SE and possibly East Anglia, athough Kent may get it worst.  I doubt people will be bashing the Met Office or notice if the winds are still very strong but just from a slightly different direction and perhaps slightly later than forecast a few days before.

 

Anyway much of this post probably isn't worth much as it's probably just different inter-run details, and the detail of the outcome will probably be different than shown now.

 

In a way maybe the NAE is more coming into line with some models like the GFS that has the stronger winds a bit later in the day than others like the UKMO global model.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Storm Track]

Power outages and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks are very likely but hard to be predict it.

[Matty M]

GFS still moves the system through and would impact southern Britain, At this stage i don't feel the storm merits a Red warning. Inland populated areas probably won't get gusts above 60mph, coastal areas and the exposed areas in the southwest may get gusts up to 80mph, Can't see scope for more than this really, perhaps a gust in the coastal southeast to 85/90mph just as the storm clears.

 

It just doesn't look that exceptional to me this morning.

 

Last minute changes of course could still change this.

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by Matty M

[itsnowjoke]

It's worrying, it will cause damage somewhere. I love weather of this type but would rather it didn't happen, in all reality.  But, can I say, who on earth doesn't have enough food to last a few days?!?!??!

Depends if you got kids mine can clear a weeks shop in a few days.