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Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

the 06z position from Exeter is shown on the link below as 41N 52W centre 1009mb, about where you would expect it given the prediction 3 days ago of where we could start looking for it at 12z today. This was 451N 50W and a bit below 1012mb so the start is about spot on.

http://www.weatherch...rg/ukmomslp.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

as I eluded to in my post above.

Yes indeed.  It appeared as I was typing. You're absolutely right.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I don't think people should assume that just because the storm moves through quickly that this lessens the chance of structural damage and trees down.

It's not really longevity thats the issue but what sort of gusts are likely to occur, you also can't underestimate the added problem of trees still in leaf.

Overall the models have handled this storm well with now just really some slight variation with the exact track which is always likely in these situations.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Don't forget about the high end level 1 warning for severe convective weather issued by ESTOFEX for today.

 

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2013102706_201310252339_1_stormforecast.xml

 

 

... British Isles and surroundings ...

The frontal system of the next pronounced low-pressure system crosses the British Isles. A strongly sheared and helical flow is forecast to develop in a narrow belt ahead of the cold front due to a concentrated Southwesterly low-level jet (25-30 m/s at 850 hPa). With marginally unstable profiles and strong forcing, a shallow convective line is expected to cross Ireland around noon and most of the UK by midnight. Severe wind gusts are possible, and a few tornadoes are not ruled out in the case that more discrete convection can crystallize along segments of the line.
After a few hours of postfrontal subsidence, a new round of deeper and more vigorous convection will move onshore overnight with the next vorticity lobes. Deep-layer shear will then decrease due to a more equalized flow through the depth of the troposphere, but with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE over the relatively warm sea and a further tightening gradient at low levels, even ill-organized storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. Limited area models agree on the development of a comma over the Celtic Sea overnight, though the solutions are highly diverging with respect to its timing, intensity and path. Hence it was decided to stay with a high-end level 1, though there is a possibility of widespread severe wind gusts in Ireland, Wales and Cornwall very late in the forecast period, when the 850 hPa flow starts to exceed 30 m/s!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

and the point the Chief Forecaster was making will still hold, red alerts if necessary on Sunday not Saturday

 

It's really tricky for the Chief Forecaster in situations like this.  Too early and you run the risk of getting it wrong.  Too late, and it's of limited value (particularly on a Sunday).  I don't envy him!

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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

Power outages and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks are very likely but hard to be predict it.

 

With all due respect, that is nonsense. Your posts have been irresponsible in their scaremongering without any proper justification.

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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

Bbc red button warnings now include north Wales and southern northen England!

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

I don't think people should assume that just because the storm moves through quickly that this lessens the chance of structural damage and trees down.It's not really longevity thats the issue but what sort of gusts are likely to occur, you also can't underestimate the added problem of trees still in leaf.Overall the models have handled this storm well with now just really some slight variation with the exact track which is always likely in these situations.

 

very true nick. what some people seem to forget is that the models are showing us snapshots at 3 hour intervals.

3 hours is a long time to be battered by a storm and a lot of damage can occur in that time

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Its what he is paid for?

 

post of the day Posted Image and so very true

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Its what he is paid for?

 

Yes John, and those responsibility's come with a good pay packet to !

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

Its what he is paid for?

Posted Image True, and it's probably a lot more than I make, but even so........

Edited by Just Before Dawn
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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

I don't think people should assume that just because the storm moves through quickly that this lessens the chance of structural damage and trees down.It's not really longevity thats the issue but what sort of gusts are likely to occur, you also can't underestimate the added problem of trees still in leaf.Overall the models have handled this storm well with now just really some slight variation with the exact track which is always likely in these situations.

The worst case scenario is a slow moving storm

It's the high winds over an extended period of time, that tend to loosen things up

Heavy rain, going on for longer

 

Hurricane Wilma in 2005.. it slowed and hanged around the Yucatan Penisula for about 3 days as a Cat 4 Hurricane

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I've done all my preparation today, i changed the battery in my handheld anemometer and charged up my cree headtorch.  Time to sit & wait! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

I don't totally agree with that M, it is probably still deepening, it is shown further south but then that is or should be understood by seasoned posters on here as something that will happen as the models zero down to the actual event. Fine tuning you could call it. I am quite amused by folk expecting total precision for 48 hours ahead when the darn thing is only just forming!

...plus we're not using raw NAE in operational forecast. Our modified version has been tweaked in various ways and with particular nod to EC. Slower development favoured. Some IR v model(s) mismatches in near-term and currently awaiting a full briefing shortly from Chief.
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Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex

With all due respect, that is nonsense. Your posts have been irresponsible in their scaremongering without any proper justification.

I agree with on this! Although this maybe a potentially dangerous storm, it is no hurricane Katrina as the odd person seems to think on here.
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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

With all due respect, that is nonsense. Your posts have been irresponsible in their scaremongering without any proper justification.

I agree - this is the kind of unhelpful stupidity that everyone can do without.

 

A realistic assessment of this is that it is very unlikely to be anything like 1987 (afterall every time there is an autumn storm there is scaremongering about this) but as one who looks to be in an especially vulnerable area for this, it also looks to a strong low nonetheless.

 

70 to 80 mph gusts seem very probable around southern coasts and these most likely to be strongest on the south western side of the low as it pulls north eastwards across central england during Monday. Depending on the exact track then away from the south and south coast there is also a risk to some northern and north eastern parts as the low exits into the north sea.

 

Southern coasts especially most at risk from south westerly winds off the channel as the low starts to cross from the south west and as the wind swings westerly in the wake of the low some of the strongest gusts could occur for a short time. Then the risk transfers further north east after lunchtime, with the risk of severe west to north westerly gales as the wind exits into the North Sea

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

...plus we're not using raw NAE in operational forecast. Our modified version has been tweaked in various ways and with particular nod to EC. Slower development favoured. Some IR v model(s) mismatches in near-term and currently awaiting a full briefing shortly from Chief.

Yes, I was just discussing the NAE raw output. The ECMWF high res. is usually the most accurate to run with. Definitely >NAE IMO. Although obviously both have their caveats.

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton, South Somerset
  • Location: Wincanton, South Somerset

two words:

 

utter crap....

 

 

 

 

...do yourself a big favour and either post sensibly or stop trolling this forum

Yes, probably a little extreme, though in October 1987 we ended up being without mains power for six days and telephone for a day over three weeks. Don't underestimate the power of nature.....

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

Is there any point in me being worried in my location ?

Nah, this is standard Northern Britain October weather, because it is down south there is a huge over reaction led by the Express.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS next gen has this storm peaking at 972mb over the UK it does deepen further but it doesn't do so until it moves out into the north sea

 

Posted Image

 

 

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