Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[A.J]

Check out the South East regional thread later this afternoon and look out for John Pike's informative posts he should be able to give us the low down for our specific area.

absolutely!.....and likewise with AWD's posts for folks in the southwest/central southern England thread

[pandit-scholar]

If tomorrow's weather is much less severe than originally forecasted, I wonder if joe public will take the warnings seriously if the deep low modelled on the models for next weekend becomes reality and the UK has a major storm then. That is when problems can emerge!

[Su Campu]

I think instead of the UK, the focus will be shifting to Netherlands, Germany and Denmark, as it would appear this is where the real action will take place tomorrow. I'll be interested in observations from places like Helgoland, List/Sylt, etc.

 

http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop?_nfpb=true&_windowLabel=dwdwww_main_book&T1400087811143553398307gsbDocumentPath=Navigation%2FOeffentlichkeit%2FWetter__Warnungen%2FRegionenwetter%2FRegion__morgen%2FNordwest__morgen__node.html%3F__nnn%3Dtrue&switchLang=en&_pageLabel=_dwdwww_wetter_warnungen_regionenwetter

Edited October 27, 2013 by Su Campu

[Nick L]

If tomorrow's weather is much less severe than originally forecasted, I wonder if joe public will take the warnings seriously if the deep low modelled on the models for next weekend becomes reality and the UK has a major storm then. That is when problems can emerge!

 

Well that's all part of the risk. It's far better to overwarn than not warn at all. I really feel for the Met Office, they cannot win!

[itsnowjoke]

chucking it down now wow

[rmc1987]

Although there have been various warnings people have commented 'you oboe what they're like, it won't be that bad' so I don't think it'll do anything for reputation.

Similarily people have also comented on the media hype being just that. So again no problem.

Basically nothing unusual from MetO or media in that sense and people already consider it to be OTT from what I hear.

It might get a bit windy but no more than the usual storm. I don't see much more than what we have had in recent years based on what is being said. Wind gusts of 60/70 along coasts, less in land. Haven't we seen this before?

[Man With Beard]

Already very windy here ... my shed roof has just blown off! Guessing that gusts are around 50mph.

[NickR]

You don't think that its more to do with the target audience? The BBC are frequently accused of dumbing down weather reports so that the 'public' can understand. They can't win either way. Explain in full detail, most the audience wont understand or to simplify and the purists/scientists complain of lack of information or incorrect explanation. Its a hard thing to balance.

Wouldn't it be better to say "it's a complex explanation that has to do with x, y, z" and then leave it at that rather than something that sounds almost unscientific and mystical?

[itsnowjoke]

Already very windy here ... my shed roof has just blown off! Guessing that gusts are around 50mph.

oh no go get your roof back.

[Summer Sun]

Roads, flights and trains are expected to be disrupted and some rail operators have already announced revised timetables.

 

South West Trains has advised people not to travel. It said it would operate a "significantly reduced timetable" and some trains would run at reduced speeds.

 

Southern said its services - including the Gatwick Express - might not start until 9am or 10am on Monday, a move designed to "give Network Rail the chance to clear the tracks". It will also run fewer trains than usual.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24690552

[SunnySouthCoast]

Already very windy here ... my shed roof has just blown off! Guessing that gusts are around 50mph.

 

Recorded a gust of almost 70mph here earlier.

[Kiwi]

What sort of rate of pressure fall are we expecting for this system?

 

Pressure at the K1 buoy has dropped 3.6mb in the past 2 hours.

Does this sound about right/higher/lower than expected ?

[Nick L]

Although there have been various warnings people have commented 'you oboe what they're like, it won't be that bad' so I don't think it'll do anything for reputation.Similarily people have also comented on the media hype being just that. So again no problem.Basically nothing unusual from MetO or media in that sense and people already consider it to be OTT from what I hear.It might get a bit windy but no more than the usual storm. I don't see much more than what we have had in recent years based on what is being said. Wind gusts of 60/70 along coasts, less in land. Haven't we seen this before?

 

Your last paragraph isn't true. Gusts in excess of 60mph will be felt a long way inland. That is quite unusual.

[windseeker]

Something has to give soon.

Met office is sticking to its severe storm warming, (probably waiting for a big news story to happen so they can quietly removed them.)

 

The models I have looked at do not support it. As a windsurfer have been using the GFS for years and it is the best for weather coming in off the atlantic. Yes it will be windy for a 3 hour period but nothing exceptional for this time of year, certainly no where near a 1987 storm.

 

Seems most on here are taking the media and other warnings as gospel without digging deeper to look at the models to see if there is any evidence of this. This storm has been downgraded run by run now for the last 24hours.

 

This will turn out to be another bad day for the met office who issue out warnings as quickly as doctor dish out anti-biotics for common colds.

[Paul]

Way too many people trolling this discussion currently - either those intent on disrupting the discussion rather than adding to it positively stop, or we'll have no option but to take action to stop you.

 

To add to this, all those responding to people who are seeking to cause disruption to the thread, please stop - we can deal with one post quickly, but 1 post + 20 replies is more hassle and takes the thread off topic even more, so please just report posts you think are an issue and leave it at that.

 

Just wanting to re-post this as unfortunately we have had to stop some from posting due to ongoing disruptive posts. Thanks for all of the reports btw - really helps us to keep things running smoothly :-)

[Nick L]

Something has to give soon.

Met office is sticking to its severe storm warming, (probably waiting for a big news story to happen so they can quietly removed them.)

 

The models I have looked at do not support it. As a windsurfer have been using the GFS for years and it is the best for weather coming in off the atlantic. Yes it will be windy for a 3 hour period but nothing exceptional for this time of year, certainly no where near a 1987 storm.

 

Seems most on here are taking the media and other warnings as gospel without digging deeper to look at the models to see if there is any evidence of this. This storm has been downgraded run by run now for the last 24hours.

 

This will turn out to be another bad day for the met office who issue out warnings as quickly as doctor dish out anti-biotics for common colds.

 

Perhaps you could post some charts to back this up? I'm looking at the NMM and although it is a brief event, with widespread 60-70mph, you don't need it to be around for long to cause significant disruption. Particularly as trees are still in full leaf pretty much.

[Bristawl Si]

BBC weather on BBC 1 a few minutes ago some severe weather tomorrow but not for all, gusts maybe hitting 90mph

 

Very wet overnight in the south

 

 

But once the system pulls away the sun will break through and temperatures will once again hit the mid teens in the south giving a standard autumn day of sunshine and showers

 

As forecast over the last few days by the Meto, for tomorrow - pretty consistent in other words.

[itsnowjoke]

I can remember at storm we had it was in 1996 I Think it was terrible it was Christmas Eve and when i went home my Dad bless him was trying to salvage the green house plastic panels everywhere in the neighbours gsrdens etc and then the state of the frame it was all twisted.

[tinybill]

As forecast over the last few days by the Meto, for tomorrow - pretty consistent in other words.

all eyes on country file weather later

[Summer Sun]

all eyes on country file weather later

 

Here is the lunch time week ahead forecast

 

[nick sussex]

Meteo France have updated their advisory for Channel coasts and now go for possible gusts between 120 and 140km/h. This was updated at 4pm so maybe that's taken into account the latest Arpege model.

http://france.meteofrance.com/

[bobbydog]

still on track, centre of low at 992mb

 

[tinybill]

well there some serious rain now coming out  bay of Biscay not far  from  Cornwall   from the rain alarm program

Edited October 27, 2013 by tinybill

[Bobby]

The mass of rain towards the SW from the system is marching steadily our way.

[VillagePlank]

Latest obs suggest following GFS 6z,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78291-st-judes-storm-data-analysis-and-forecasts-only/?p=2818138