Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[jamesbhx]

Here is another update from a teleconference that I was in an hour ago with the Met Office and various aviation agencies and departments.

 

The low is expected to track across a line drawn Milford Haven to the Wash. The strongest winds are expected to be around the Bristol/Cardiff area between 0000-0300 identified by a feature on recent high res modelling to the western side of the low (described as a pressure surge on the western flank). The estimate for these areas is a wind speed of 45-50KTS with gusts of around 70KTS with a 30% chance of gusts in excess of 70KTS.

 

The London area should see winds averaging around 40KTS between 0300-0600 with a chance of gusts in the 60KT region.

 

The south coast of England should see mean winds between 40-50KT with gusts of 60-70KTS. Exposed coasts and hills may see higher mean wind speeds and gusts but not expected to be much greater than 70KTS.As an aside, the night time flying ban at Heathrow has been lifted for tonight to allow eastbound transatlantic traffic to land early. Eastbound flights are projected to arrive earier due to a strong jet.

 

The low system should clear England by 0900.

 

Information accurate as of 1430 this afternoon using industry specific information.

[Summer Sun]

12z looks weaker worst conditions at the coast

 

 

The storm deepens further but well away from the UK, looks worse in Denmark, Norway and Sweden than the UK

 

 

Still some strong winds for the south but maybe we could get lucky and avoid the worst the next 9 hours or so will be crucial

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Nick L]

Latest GFS again showing a much weaker storm than was predicted a few days ago. 

 

I don't think there would of been much fuss about this system if this had been the predicted chart a few days ago.

 

- Still very windy around Channel coasts and north sea coasts when it clears.

 

Some exposed coastal areas could get gusts to 70/80mph, but nothing exceptional for such exposed locations

at this time of year.

 

Inland cant see much evidence to suggest gusts more than 50/60mph at very most.

 

 

But as has been said numerous times, 50-60mph is plenty enough to cause problems!

[toggerob]

Still on a knife edge this storm - one small tweak in the path of say 100-200 miles either way could swing it either way. If it backs north, a lot more people will see the severe gusts.

 

Even just a 25 mile swing to the north puts more of the populus at risk of higher winds, aswell as my location in the line for some unexpected SLWs.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Here is another update from a teleconference that I was in an hour ago with the Met Office and various aviation agencies and departments.

 

The low is expected to track across a line drawn Milford Haven to the Wash. The strongest winds are expected to be around the Bristol/Cardiff area between 0000-0300 identified by a feature on recent high res modelling to the western side of the low (described as a pressure surge on the western flank). The estimate for these areas is a wind speed of 45-50KTS with gusts of around 70KTS with a 30% chance of gusts in excess of 70KTS.

 

The London area should see winds averaging around 40KTS between 0300-0600 with a chance of gusts in the 60KT region.

 

The south coast of England should see mean winds between 40-50KT with gusts of 60-70KTS. Exposed coasts and hills may see higher mean wind speeds and gusts but not expected to be much greater than 70KTS.As an aside, the night time flying ban at Heathrow has been lifted for tonight to allow eastbound transatlantic traffic to land early. Eastbound flights are projected to arrive earier due to a strong jet.

 

The low system should clear England by 0900.

 

Information accurate as of 1430 this afternoon using industry specific information.

 

Is that jet stream? or Sting jet?

[johnholmes]

Is that jet stream? or Sting jet?

 

I would say the jet stream which is about the height that most airliners cross the Atlantic

[Mapantz]

06Z gusts;

 

 

12Z gusts;

 

 

[johnholmes]

also an update from me

Another piece of factual rather than hypothetical data

From Wednesday onwards the Fax chart for 12z Sunday suggested the low being around 47.5N 20W with a depth shown as below 1000mb but greater than 996mb.

 

The actual from UK Met for 12z shows a centre of 993mb at roughly 47.5N 19.5W.

So we continue to see the Wednesday-Thursday Fax outputs being pretty close to what is actually occurring, a shade deeper in fact. So the next check I can do will be 00z but the 18z is something I can drop on to the proposed line of travel based on the Thursday Fax outputs, none of which changed out to last evening outputs. The depth is something I have not got any previous data on.

[windseeker]

Gusts at 4pm (now-ish)

 

gustsnow.png

Gusts later;

 

gustslater.png

Quite a marked difference don't you think? It may not be as severe as first thought, but they'll be plenty of disruption nonetheless. Of course, there's still time for more upgrades or downgrades. 

 

12z has downgraded it again, everything further south again, and trend continues

[SunnySouthCoast]

Brittany Ferries now cancelling some sailings from Portsmouth & operating a revised timetable for others.

 

Hovertravel have already cancelled all crossings to/from Southsea/Ryde.

 

LD Lines also cancelling sailing from Portsmouth to France.

Edited October 27, 2013 by SunnySouthCoast

[Summer Sun]

If you use southern trains and plan to get to work with them in the morning then don't bother it is "highly unlikely" it will run any services before 9am on Monday morning because of the approaching storm

 

Southern Railway has said it is "highly unlikely" it will run any services early on Monday morning because of the approaching storm. An amber weather warning has been issued across large parts of England and Wales as a hurricane-strength storm builds over the Atlantic and moves towards Britain. Some have compared its potential to the Great Storm of 1987, when 18 people died and thousands of homes were without power for several days.

 

Veteran weatherman Michael Fish famously failed to predict its severity before it flattened trees, knocked out power and left 22 people dead in England and France. This time he has warned people to "batten down the hatches" and to delay their journey by two or three hours on Monday morning. He told Sky News' Murnaghan show: "There is certainly a severe storm on the way - and we certainly do need to worry about it. "If you draw a line from about Aberystwyth to the Humber - everywhere south of there looks like getting affected by strong winds, to the north of that the problem is going to be heavy rain and localised flooding. "These strong winds aren't going to last all that long, but they are going to be unfortunately getting up around about rush hour time, so the message we're trying to convey at the moment is to delay your journey just by two or three hours in the morning, and then you should be safe."

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1160250/storm-southern-trains-cancels-morning-services

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Mapantz]

12z has downgraded it again, everything further south again, and trend continues

No it hasn't. If you compare the two, the stronger gusts are slightly further inland on the 12Z. Edited October 27, 2013 by Mapantz

[toggerob]

Meto Mountain Area Forecast for the Peak District:

 

There is a potential for very hazardous conditions through the first half of Monday. Heavy rain will be persistent through the early hours into Monday with extensive hill fog. Winds may drop light for a time but there is the potential for severe gales or storms for a time towards midday, and then, although easing, they will stay strong and squally through the afternoon as rain clears to frequent heavy showers. There remains uncertainty on the exact detail of this and regular weather updates are advised.

 

Northwesterly 30 to 40mph with gusts 50mph possible during the morning, but a potential for 70mph for a time.

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live things looking pretty rough down there already

[AWD]

Remember the GFS is a global model and isn't designed for short term, inter regional detail. I may be wrong but I doubt the GFS takes into account tropographic and local environmental nuances when calculating windspeeds to a specific, small scale region.

Much better sticking to high res modelling now such as the NAE and NMM and also flirting for information from UKV, EURO4 and ARPEGE etc.

Even better of course is to watch satellite imagery and see how things develop live.

[Kiwi]

NDBC displaying buoy 62029 just under 300 miles W of the scilly Isles (or Isles of scilly pedantically speaking ) gives pressure lowering rapidly now with a 2mb fall in between the 1pm & 2pm reading currently @ 998mb.

Sevenstones lightship buoy lies 300 mile ENE roughly between IOS & mainland Cornwall so we could monitor this buoy to determine the wind direction and plot the path?

Anyone have a link providing the latest jet stream pattern for oscillations and upper level divergence?

K1 Buoy dropped 2.8mb in last hour, now 995.1 (15.00hrs)

 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/observations/map.html

[coldfingers]

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live things looking pretty rough down there already

Hi Andrew, just got in from walking the dog along the promenade further along at Felpham, he didn't like it a whole lot with the wind blowing his fur the wrong way. very gusty already along the beach and also across my garden as there is very little to stop the wind from the sea when it is this direction. Tonight is going to be interesting.

[SMU]

Latest UKMO I think will be the finishing line for this low- somewhere close to between 970- 975 MB

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php

 

NAE 12z

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=18&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

 

We have gone from a storm that was being compared to the great storm of 1987 (which was 956 MB) to a system that is at the very top end of the norm- IE 70 mph + gusts to exposed southern coastal areas.

 

We should be thankful that its downgraded & not progged to be deeper-

 

I don't think there is any point moaning at the MET office- they have always presented the information in a professional way, its the tabloids that are the culprits!

 

anyway hang on to your hats its going to be bad for the next 24 hours- but not as bad as initially thought!

 

S

Edited October 27, 2013 by Steve Murr

[martinj2]

1500Z Observations from Sevenstones lightship off SW Cornwall

 

 

Conditions at 62107 as of
1500 GMT on 10/27/2013: Unit of Measure: EnglishMetric Time Zone: Station Local TimeGreenwich Mean Time [GMT]British Summer Time [GMT+1]

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last 24 hours of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 250 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.9 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 22.0 ft Average Period (APD): 11 sec Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling ) Air Temperature (ATMP): 58.3 °F Water Temperature (WTMP): 57.2 °F Dew Point (DEWP): 49.5 °F Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

Edited October 27, 2013 by martinj2

[ANYWEATHER]

The gfs  has all but dropped the severe wind threat for many and keeps the worst of the winds on the English channel coast, similar to its 06z run. This is of course good news ,but lets see how things evolve from now, there is still possibility of a shift Northwards. Looks like the far south of England and the English channel coasts getting the worst of the winds between midnight and 3am... 

[coldfingers]

As I have said I am no expert, I am in a gully part of the south downs so what kind of wind strength are we expecting and when if possible ?

That is dependant on how high and which side of the Downs, North or South.

[Weather Boy]

Remember the GFS is a global model and isn't designed for short term, inter regional detail. I may be wrong but I doubt the GFS takes into account tropographic and local environmental nuances when calculating windspeeds to a specific, small scale region.Much better sticking to high res modelling now such as the NAE and NMM and also flirting for information from UKV, EURO4 and ARPEGE etc.Even better of course is to watch satellite imagery and see how things develop live.

Good helpful,post. I was going to ask if anyone knows whether that chart takes into account the level of exposure in any given location. For example obviously it'll be windier at sea than a few miles inland. Would that chart make that allowance. Possibly yes as it shows the windiest location in the channel, but that could be the windiest regardless do topography - we don't know.Can anyone give a link to the NAE (not on netweather as far as I know) and at what time the charts come out please?

[london-snow]

Latest UKMO I think will be the finishing line for this low- somewhere close to between 970- 975 MBhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.phpNAE 12zhttp://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=18&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=We have gone from a storm that was being compared to the great storm of 1987 (which was 956 MB) to a system that is at the very top end of the norm- IE 70 mph + gusts to exposed southern coastal areas.We should be thankful that its downgraded & not progged to be deeper-I don't think there is any point moaning at the MET office- they have always presented the information in a professional way, its the tabloids that are the culprits!anyway hang on to your hats its going to be bad for the next 24 hours- but not as bad as initially thought!S

Yes hat's off to you're best friend ' Pub run ' for picking up on the downgrade first last night.

[legritter]

Still looking severe from all present data from what i,v just looked at .looking at radar and sattellite i would say it looks to me that the rain is coming North east rather quicker than forecast ,alot of dought creaping in from certain posters which is very warranted and to be expected as many of us are probably like Cats on a hot tin roof at the moment .but patience is the key ,GFS could be on to something but Met office have plenty of info so i for one will be following them on this one .no guarantees BUT we have been Warned ,if the worst happens tonight I E , A TRACK ACROSS WALES MOVING  n/east RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ,it would be a consilation as the Storm of 87 occured at night ,although this was severe ,not so many people out and about so less fatalitys compared to the Burns day storm which tore across central and southern parts during daylight hours .A VERY HARD ONE TO CALL ,but we should know over coming severall hours .

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Good helpful,post. I was going to ask if anyone knows whether that chart takes into account the level of exposure in any given location. For example obviously it'll be windier at sea than a few miles inland. Would that chart make that allowance. Possibly yes as it shows the windiest location in the channel, but that could be the windiest regardless do topography - we don't know.Can anyone give a link to the NAE (not on netweather as far as I know) and at what time the charts come out please?

 

 

Here's a link - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=15&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

Every 6 hours

Edited October 27, 2013 by Essex Easterly.