Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

[Lazz]

Hi all,

 

Sorry for the possibly dumb question, but obviously all the media outlets are looking towards the severe weather for tomorrow, yet its windy outside now, and according to the wind speed/direction data on netweather's GFS, its showing stronger more widespread wind for today than tomorrow. Why is this the case if its tomorrow that everyone is talking about?

 

 

[NothingHappensInNorwich]

Sorry if this is a silly question but are winds stronger nearer the eye of the storm or further away from it?  I'm in Norwich so as the storm leaves the UK just north of Norfolk I was just wondering if that is when the strongest winds will be.

[Coast]

Looks like a nice downgrade from GFS this morning things look further south to me

 

 

Then that's not a 'downgrade', that's a slight shift in emphasis of the main event and many of us down here in the South, especially along the Channel coast, do not consider it to be 'any better' at all. I think the phrase downgrade is not useful as it doesn't define things geographically where events still look to be quite potent. 

[itsnowjoke]

Im down for 40-60 winds on here under the yellow section of the warning and its says Fresh to strong winds. Im so confused.com what time is this meant to hit us.

[Kiwi]

I think if the storm a bit further south then France plus the CI will be hit hard, no doubt about that.

 

That storm is still the one to watch though, especially hitting mainland europe.

 

Going by the 06z it looks like Stockholm could be breezy on Monday evening.

 

[Summer Sun]

06z has the low no deeper than 980mb over the UK it does deepen but only once its well away from the UK

 

 

By 06z its already pulling away

 

 

By lunchtime its well away and winds will be rapidly easing

 

 

The period of around 02:00 to 09:00 looks like the worst time when winds are likely to be strongest in the south

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Rammie]

Hi all,

 

Sorry for the possibly dumb question, but obviously all the media outlets are looking towards the severe weather for tomorrow, yet its windy outside now, and according to the wind speed/direction data on netweather's GFS, its showing stronger more widespread wind for today than tomorrow. Why is this the case if its tomorrow that everyone is talking about?

 

 

 

 

I know what you mean. Just back from a walk, and it's certainly windy here at the moment. Is this windier than it will be tonight or tomorrow? I have no idea!

[Chief Wiggam]

It's pretty serious here right now so I suggest most people around the South Coast would be delighted to have a downgrade. The evidence however remains less than sufficient to make such a statement.

[adamPK27]

Sorry if this is a silly question but are winds stronger nearer the eye of the storm or further away from it?  I'm in Norwich so as the storm leaves the UK just north of Norfolk I was just wondering if that is when the strongest winds will be.

Just like a hurricane the closer you are to the eye-wall or in this case the equivalent of it for a storm depression the stronger the winds will be, I'd say judging by the charts from yesterday that the strongest gusts would be around breakfast time tomorrow around the King's Lynn area as the low centre passes out into the north sea via The Wash, but the latest charts suggest the centre has shifted south a fair bit so who knows (hopefully London and home counties would avoid the worst because of the high population) I do fear for people a little on the East Anglian coast to be honest, somewhere like Lowestoft etc... could get interesting tomorrow morning as the low pulls away into the north-sea I can see there being a sting in it's tail.

[West Sussex Kate]

From twitter

Tomasz Schafernaker:

Storm still on track for South UK tomorrow A.M. Looks like the worst will last only a matter of hours - violent but short-lived.

[SteveCoops]

So the NAE model that every was discounting almost exactly 24 hours ago looks like it got it dead right? (such as posts http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78272-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013-part-2/?p=2815654 and http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78272-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013-part-2/?p=2815658)

[NothingHappensInNorwich]

Just like a hurricane the closer you are to the eye-wall or in this case the equivalent of it for a storm depression the stronger the winds will be, I'd say judging by the charts from yesterday that the strongest gusts would be around breakfast time tomorrow around the King's Lynn area as the low centre passes out into the north sea via The Wash, but the latest charts suggest the centre has shifted south a fair bit so who knows (hopefully London and home counties would avoid the worst because of the high population) I do fear for people a little on the East Anglian coast to be honest, somewhere like Lowestoft etc... could get interesting tomorrow morning as the low pulls away into the north-sea I can see there being a sting in it's tail.

Thanks 

[Cold Winter]

Even BBC News are seriously hyping this up. "Forecasters are making comparisons to the Great Storm of 1987" and showing images from 1987.

 

Unfortunately this will end up being blamed on the Met Office if it isn't as severe as expected when we all know they were only reflecting the output from the models... and considering just 24-48 hours ago we were praising the models for spotting this development so early perhaps it's time to re-evaluate the emphasis we put on models over 48 hours before an event.

[EML Network]

Appears to me that this system is moving through much quicker than seemed the case this time yesterday. 

 

All over by 9 am, which is when the strongest winds were at one point looking probable. 

 

This is such a close call, a slight slowing, a movement 50 miles in any one direction, interaction and strength of the jet, and don't forget we had 2 X Class flares and a number of M class flares from the sun over the past 48 hours. 

 

All in all an absolute nightmare for any computer to deal with no matter how powerful, I expect the Met Office along with everyone else are being educated with this particular set up and who knows there is still time (just) for this thing to start winding itself up as it approaches, but it does look like this is going to be a near miss for most and just a glancing blow for the South Coastal regions. 

 

I expect 70 MPH Maximum Gusts as things stand rather than 80 - 90 , which is still powerful, but not exactly damaging to property, especially given that we're talking an event lasting a mere 3 hours as opposed to an event lasting 6 hours as seemed likely yesterday.

 

Think I'll get back to looking what Winter has in store now

Edited October 27, 2013 by EML Network

[Pixel]

If anyones unsure about what a 50 mph gust of wind is like - get a friend to drive along a road @ 50mph and stick your head out the passenger window. A similar effect can be achieved by standing by the side of road when a lorry goes by @ 50mph - but I wouldn't recommend that  Sustained wind can be bearable but it's the gusts that often cause damage in a very short space of time.

 

Very happy with all the warnings and information about this up coming storm - won't be going anywhere Monday morning that's for sure, and if turns outs to be less than predicted - better safe than sorry.

[Sainsbo]

The lastest BBC forecast still going for 90mph gusts possible in the south, and talk about only "tweaks" in the forecast possible.

 

It seems it really could go either way. I'm sure we will see what's more likely when the MetO's warnings are updated. If the 90mph gists are still a possibility, I don't see a red warning being out of the question.

[pip22]

Michael Fish should be on Sky News anytime now. He is expected to be on 10am which is right now.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby on this low

 

All models seem to have downgraded the storm system to some degree this morning. A depression of around 985mbs will run across Wales deepening to 970mbs as it exits the East coast tomorrow. Winds will become gale or severe gale force across Southern Britain late tonight with the strongest winds looking likely across Eastern areas and the English Channel tomorrow morning. Storms will die down later in the day with decreasing NW winds with showers for most.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78188-model-output-discussion-17th-oct-onwards/?p=2817474

[PEMBS PIRATE]

From what i see on the 00z fax is what i have seen for the last 3 or 4 days, the track of the low arriving over Pembrokeshire where they have shown it on the TV, some models have shown it in Cardigan bay to the North, i admit the fax shows it maybe 10 miles to my South but from 4 days out that is a good call, now how deep the pressure will go or the highest wind speeds/gusts is another matter......

[Chief Wiggam]

Chimet now showing gusts of F9......it may be downgrade ahoy inland but as far as we are concerned this remains a serious and potentially damaging storm

[johnholmes]

I’ve just had a look at the GFS 300mb data and it, although trying to quantify colours to speeds is not accurate, it does look less strong, some 30-40 knots perhaps, that the 12z run yesterday (I’m looking at the 06z). The jet is clearly visible on the movie sat picc infra red, link below, and look at the time 09-1000 this morning.

I would think it unlikely that Exeter will put any red alerts out although the south coast and possibly the eastern fringes of East Anglia may still see gusts over 80mph. Elsewhere with the low looking to follow a track over the UK a bit further south than the predict from yesterday. This being due to the low not deepening to the extent predicted up to 12z data yesterday thus not turning to the left of its track to the same extent. Oddly enough if anyone has the original depth and track the likely one for tomorrow is not that far from the first ideas nearly a week ago!

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

[Skip Spence]

Even BBC News are seriously hyping this up. "Forecasters are making comparisons to the Great Storm of 1987" and showing images from 1987. Unfortunately this will end up being blamed on the Met Office if it isn't as severe as expected when we all know they were only reflecting the output from the models... and considering just 24-48 hours ago we were praising the models for spotting this development so early perhaps it's time to re-evaluate the emphasis we put on models over 48 hours before an event.

Met Office blamed for what and by whom? If it isn't as severe as it might've been, almost everyone will be mightily pleased and relieved. Surely preferable to be prepared then reprieved than the other way around.

[island lad]

Strong gusts being felt here on isle of wight. Dog walk should be fun later. I think I may head to shanklin beach

[Kiwi]

Mini troops in the Kiwi household have had alert status lowered

 

Chainsaw and Camping stove returning to barracks .......Apple Corers and Peelers standing to in preparation for a glut of windfalls tomorrow morning.

[Cold Winter]

Met Office blamed for what and by whom? If it isn't as severe as it might've been, almost everyone will be mightily pleased and relieved. Surely preferable to be prepared then reprieved than the other way around.

 

Yes I'm sure people will be pleased it's not as severe as was predicted. But, undoubtedly, if it isn't as severe as was expected, people tomorrow will be saying things like "just a little bit of wind and rain, they don't know what they're on about" etc.