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Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion


Skullzrulerz

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

GFS overview this morning still has high winds across much of coastal UK on Sunday:

 

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Posted Image

 

Not on the scale of yesterday, but still very gusty:

 

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Bonfire night not stacking up well if you want to be outside:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

The Chinese still make something of the first wave.

 

The second system seems to develop and hit the UK on most models, however most runs show it being mature and not especially threatening.

 

Chinese run for first wave, hits UK

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Guest William Grimsley

Posted Image

 

This was yesterday i think this is wind speeds if it came off like this the storm will be more worse then last night's storm.

Scary.

Hell yeah! I'll be in SW England, for this one. Bring it on. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Running through the output this morning and the UKMO has the low positioned a lot further south than most of the other output. JMA has it in a similar position as uk but all the others have it much further north. Interesting to see this develope and which way the output trends.

Worth running through the jet stream output, a lot to be learnt for the less experienced viewer. Wish I could post charts to illustrate but on mobile and not sure how to do that. Perhaps someone could help me out?

Regards That ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

gales you can keep thank you.There may be some on here on here who are genuinely peed off at missing out on an "exciting" weather event but i'm certainly not one of them.

Same here. At first, when I was younger I enjoyed gales but as I got older, my interesting in them has waned. Christmas Eve 1997 storm was the turning point and after the January 2007 event, enough was enough.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Met O Wind gust maps out as far as they can go at the moment:

 

post-6667-0-33445700-1383034654_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-53723500-1383034662_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-46855800-1383034668_thumb.pn

 

Not up to St Judes storm, but still gusty and slightly more so on Channel coasts again.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes (ish) 140m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes (ish) 140m ASL

The possibility of another storm this coming weekend was mentioned on the bbc breakfast news weather forecast this morning; first old media mention?

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Worth running through the jet stream output, a lot to be learnt for the less experienced viewer. Wish I could post charts to illustrate but on mobile and not sure how to do that. Perhaps someone could help me out?Regards That ECM.

You can't on the mobile site unfortunately... I know, because I always post from my iPod! If I want to post images I change to the full site. There's an option at the bottom of the page saying 'full version', click on this, then when you go to make a post, click on more reply options, then you should have the usual options! Edited by dec10snow
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Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading

Same here. At first, when I was younger I enjoyed gales but as I got older, my interesting in them has waned. Christmas Eve 1997 storm was the turning point and after the January 2007 event, enough was enough.

Have to agree with you on this one, I think it's called being a home owner that's done it, when you live with your parent you don't even think about that side, ok I like a good storm and enjoy watching it from a warm bedroom window but when it's my garden being wreaked i'm not so happy as I was when I was a kid.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Ensemble 6 develops a system near that intense jet-streak. My concern yesterday.

 

Still very low support but the ingredients are all available for an intense cyclone to form at a very short time range.

 

 

60hrs

 

Posted Image

 

90hrs

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Ensemble 6 develops a system near that intense jet-streak. My concern yesterday.

 

Still very low support but the ingredients are all available for an intense cyclone to form at a very short time range.

 

 

60hrs

 

Posted Image

 

90hrs

 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

 

matt not  looking  good  there at  all

Edited by tinybill
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Also GEM runs with an interesting system.

 

Posted Image


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

 

matt not  looking  there at  all

 

No, if that occurred yesterday's system would be long forgotten.

 

Would be lots of severe damage in the south of England. Again just 1 or many many solutions.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Also GEM runs with an interesting system.

 

Posted Image

 

No, if that occurred yesterday's system would be long forgotten.

 

Would be lots of severe damage in the south of England. Again just 1 or many many solutions.

Do you see this system taking a similar trajectory path and leaving us out of the firing line or is it far too early to predict with any certainty?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Do you see this system taking a similar trajectory path and leaving us out of the firing line or is it far too early to predict with any certainty?

 

Far too early and the chart shown is only one of a number of different scenarios from one run, one model. There are hints that another stormy period is coming up later this weekend, but intensity, position and timing are all still very much up for grabs and will become more refined as we move through the week - much as they did for Monday's storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Daily Express ramping up the next storm for the weekend

 

New deadly storm on the way after 100mph gales claim 6 lives

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2822327

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Nothing particularly excting for this weekend - wind and rain according to the Metoffice blog

 

Apologies if already posted elsewhere.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/29/unsettled-weather-to-come-but-no-repeat-of-st-jude-in-sight/

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Funny because BBC News weather at 1.00 there alluded to the feature in the southwest and didn't give much detail beyond, obviously keeping any eye on it. The environment in the area means small alterations to timing could lead to an extreme weather event as early as Friday.

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Funny because BBC News weather at 1.00 there alluded to the feature in the southwest and didn't give much detail beyond, obviously keeping any eye on it. The environment in the area means small alterations to timing could lead to an extreme weather event as early as Friday.

 

Yes I noticed that John Hammond seemed a bit hesitant to mention much. Also at the end it seemed like he was going to say another potential storm at the weekend but stumbled slightly and mentioned wet and windy/unsettled. Maybe I'm reading too much into it :p

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

Yes I noticed that John Hammond seemed a bit hesitant to mention much. Also at the end it seemed like he was going to say another potential storm at the weekend but stumbled slightly and mentioned wet and windy/unsettled. Maybe I'm reading too much into it :p

I know i watched it your right.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Yes I noticed that John Hammond seemed a bit hesitant to mention much. Also at the end it seemed like he was going to say another potential storm at the weekend but stumbled slightly and mentioned wet and windy/unsettled. Maybe I'm reading too much into it Posted Image

 

I should think a hint of nervousness about calling it one way or another after Mondays event. MetO and BBC were on the money for that and need to keep up the good mid-range forecasting. Of course when any thoughts of an Atlantic storm are mentioned, the General Public will be on it like a rash now after St Judes and this next potential will be just as difficult to call with all eyes on the run-up - even if it doesn't have quite the same potency.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

Good afternoon one and all. As I'm a bit of a novice at this, could someone just give me the heads up on the mechainics of wind production. Is it how deep an incoming low pressure is or is it the tightness of the isobars around the low? I have been looking a the GFS and some low pressure systems seem to have a higher pressure core but are of a tighter pack around them, giving the impression of a great volcity of wind surrounding them.

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Good afternoon one and all. As I'm a bit of a novice at this, could someone just give me the heads up on the mechainics of wind production. Is it how deep an incoming low pressure is or is it the tightness of the isobars around the low? I have been looking a the GFS and some low pressure systems seem to have a higher pressure core but are of a tighter pack around them, giving the impression of a great volcity of wind surrounding them.

Hello & Welcome!

 

There's a wealth of info in the Learning Thread put together by our Finest :-) http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/5-the-netweather-guides/

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Here's the last run from the SP chart on the WRF;post-15177-0-30459700-1383058433_thumb.p

 

A long way off yet, just though i'd post it to add it in to the mix (if it hasn't already been posted of course) The MO press release saying it's likely to be similar to Sunday afternoon is probably a fair assessment at the moment. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

No alarming development of the low on the latest NAE output. But a little deeper than the 6z NAE run.

The GEM at that stage had low centre near 998hPa however NAE just near 1006hPa

-----

GFS not doing much with initial low so far on this run.

Edited by Matty M
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