South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 27/10/13 1730z ------->

[Zephyr]

20h Surface analyses low now at 988mb 

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi folks, been away from the forums for a while, but I couldn't let this developing storm pass without chiming in!

 

First, well done to the models for picking up on this LP so far in advance. The media is clearly in quite a frenzy over this one. One thing I've learned over many years is that such a hugely anticipated weather event rarely pans out as predicted. Having said that, let's look at where we are now.

 

A closed low has formed in the last couple of hours in the SW approaches and looking at the steering flow, the predicted path looks pretty likely - across the Midlands. Whilst I would agree that the gradient on the S and SE flank looks likely to be pretty tight, given the speed this system is moving, as evidenced by the IR satellite images, I am wondering if this low will actually have time to deepen as much as anticipated. Thus, maybe there won't be so much of a tight gradient, especially on the W edge, the "backlash", well at least until it gets to the E coast. The GFS model suggests as much on the 12Z run.

 

Nevertheless, these beasties can be very tricky so I will not underestimate the threat! One thing resulting from the speed of the system is that at least the winds, however strong they become, will move away pretty fast.

 

I shall be following the hourly analyses with interest until I get too tired!

 

Stay safe everyone!

 

OMM

 

Thanks OMM, good to have your input and see you around netweather towers again. My interpretation of the storm all along was that the SE and parts of the East coast could be worst effected. The trend in the GFS output and Fax chart output has consistently suggested that to be the case. As you also wisely state, things can and will change from the anticipated track and intensity of this beast. A watch and wait scenario from hereon in.

[festivalking]

Really starting to hammer down now, not sure what it is like down the hill... I know the one you mean, I believe the is something to do with the Met Office. The one I use is this one and Postbridge. http://www.dartcom.co.uk/weather/

 

I think we are going to start getting hit in the next couple of hours mate...

 

Its really pouring down now wind a bit up as the chimney is starting to howl a wee bit. I note earlier on we had a gust of 50mph not much lower what is predicted tonight so not sure its going to be as bad down here as say further east. 

 

Ah yes i use that site to see if its worth popping up the higher moor for some snow fun.

 

In any case at 50mph gusts and pouring rain i rather be inside than out!

[UKMoto]

Pretty torrential here now: Landrake, near Plymouth.

 

 

Rainfall Today 20.4 mm   Rainfall Rate Max 21.6 mm/hr at 20:15 High Hourly Rainfall 7.2 mm

 

Highest Gust 40.3 mph at 10:17 Highest Speed (10 minute average) 24.4 mph (F6) at 10:54 Wind Run 232.8 miles   Dominant Direction 214° SW   Pressure High Pressure (SL) 1007.6 mb at 14:16 Low Pressure (SL) 995.1 mb at 20:29

[festivalking]

20h Surface analyses low now at 988mb 

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

Makes me chuckle pressure is down to 968 up in scotland..........

[BARRY]

pressure has dropped to 987.6

[Beast of Plympton]

Its really pouring down now wind a bit up as the chimney is starting to howl a wee bit. I note earlier on we had a gust of 50mph not much lower what is predicted tonight so not sure its going to be as bad down here as say further east. 

 

Ah yes i use that site to see if its worth popping up the higher moor for some snow fun.

 

In any case at 50mph gusts and pouring rain i rather be inside than out!

 

Definitely inside rather than out! I think what we have to bare in mind is that the Moors are a pretty windy place as it is so anything could happen later! Could be an interesting evening....

[karlos1983]

down to 995mb, falling quickly

[winger]

Almost flat calm now in Wincanton

[fUnKy]

Definitely inside rather than out! I think what we have to bare in mind is that the Moors are a pretty windy place as it is so anything could happen later! Could be an interesting evening....

Moved out of the south west a couple of weeks back. Bet this one will be fun down there. Be safe all.

[Sungirl]

I have been learning (slowly) since I joined this forum but barometer numbers are new to me

 

Barometer at my local weather station is 996 and falling... I am assuming that falling = storm?  Please can someone explain in simple terms for a novice?

 

Info taken from here http://www.weatherfamily.org/bracknell/wxhome.html

 

Thanking you

[NessCottage]

Definitely inside rather than out! I think what we have to bare in mind is that the Moors are a pretty windy place as it is so anything could happen later! Could be an interesting evening....

Here in Teignmouth we are glad the Moor is there to block the wind and create a lovely rain shadow! That said it is not doing very well on the rain front at the moment 13.2 mmh!

[Mapantz]

down to 995mb, falling quickly

 

I knew it'd be wet here, i didn't expect it to total up this fast though, if i'm honest. 18.6mm now. Bar is falling rapidly, 994.1hPa and it has become very gusty again.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Mapantz

[gottolovethisweather]

994.9mb and falling rapidly now in Newbury, Berkshire.

 

4.2mm and counting, only 1.8mm from the main event so far.

 

It's on its way.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

I have been learning (slowly) since I joined this forum but barometer numbers are new to me

 

Barometer at my local weather station is 996 and falling... I am assuming that falling = storm?  Please can someone explain in simple terms for a novice?

 

Info taken from here http://www.weatherfamily.org/bracknell/wxhome.html

 

Thanking you

 

Sungirl,

 

The depression's air pressure is expected to fall between 1 and 2mb per hour across our region. Should the falls start to approach 3mb per hour then that would be deemed a "BOMBING" low or depression.   Broadly speaking, it seems to sticking to the original prediction for now.

[karlos1983]

I knew it'd be wet here, i didn't expect it to total up this fast though, if i'm honest. 18.6mm now. Bar is falling rapidly, 994.1hPa and it has become very gusty again.

 

No I was not expecting this much precip by now, maybe as a total, it will be interesting to see your total, I'm at 18.4mm, likewise very gusty now. Once that rain clears is when the wind will really pick up I believe? 

Edited October 27, 2013 by karlos1983

[kevvo]

The rain has eased here at Weymouth harbourside, but flags that were hanging limply are now rampant again. The calm waters of the harbour, cratered earlier with raindrops are now rippling with an increased windspeed. It's on it's way!

Edited October 27, 2013 by kevvo

[gottolovethisweather]

I can't see anyone's location on this map but mine is just about to receive the first belt of heavier stuff it seems.

 

 

As AWD stated earlier, there is a lot of rain forecast, can't recall but something like 20-40mm and the windiest weather will be within the clearance of the first set of fronts, AFAIK.

Edited October 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mapantz]

Yes

 

No I was not expecting this much precip by now, maybe as a total, it will be interesting to see your total, I'm at 18.4mm, likewise very gusty now. Once that rain clears is when the wind will really pick up I believe? 

 

I'd say around 10 - 11pm the winds should really get going. :)I'm getting better wind readings now it's switch from a WSW to a S/SW. I was getting 15mph 2 minute avg speeds and 12mph 10 minute avg speeds, need to beat 45mph for my all time gust record to go, that was from January 2012 - It will take a lot to beat it as it was from an unobstructed direction, hopefully i can surpass it though. hehe 

[windseeker]

Just been out, compared with early really calm, evening has an odd feel about it...

Oil tank gauge just shot to maximum as pressure started to drop fast in last hour.

[Beast of Plympton]

Moved out of the south west a couple of weeks back. Bet this one will be fun down there. Be safe all.

 

Thanks, good luck in your new location!

Here in Teignmouth we are glad the Moor is there to block the wind and create a lovely rain shadow! That said it is not doing very well on the rain front at the moment 13.2 mmh!

 

Haha!! Well lets hope we block what is here at the moment because it is very wet here!!

[snowponies]

Rain very heavy now, no wind yet though! Should soon know with having a fireplace in every room in the house (incl the bathroom), part of me is a bit nervous as my pride and joys live outside (OH wont budge on letting them in the house lol) and the other part excited.

Hoping my stable roof doesn't disappear....

Beast of dartmoor, have you noticed the temperature has dropped quite considerably?

[AWD]

Right, my amatuer thoughts of tonight's events. Got to say, it's a difficult one to call really, so I'm not overly confident in any forecast as things stand. The Met Office, the 12z Model Output, Media forecasts and Live progression are all differing slightly. Whilst these differences are minuscule in the overall picture of things, they could have large alterations in inter regional detail.

That is the best I can produce right now.

The area in red which includes catchments such as;

- Brighton, Bognor Regis, Littlehampton, Portsmouth, Hastings, Eastbourne, IOW, Southampton, Bournemouth, Poole, Brockenhurst, Wareham, Lyme Regis and Fareham.

This area could see gusts approaching 80mph during the storms peak. More typical gusts are likely to range from 65mph - 75mph. Some damage and distribution is likely in this area.

The Orange area, which includes catchments such as;

- Plymouth, Paignton, Newton Abbott, Exeter, Newton Poppleford, Weymouth, Sidmouth, Barnstaple, North Exmoor, Bude, Padstow, Minehead, Burnham, Weston Super Mare, Lundy Island, Portishead, West Bristol, Thornbury, Bridgwater, Taunton, Winchester, Basingstoke, Reading, Guildford and Horsham.

This area could see gusts approaching 70mph. More typically, a short spell of gusts between 55mph - 65mph is likely quite widely.

The green area, who's catchments include;

- Bodmin, Liskeard, Warminster, Trowbridge, Frome, Yeovil, Salisbury, Swindon, Bath, Gloucester, Stroud, Cheltenham, Dursley, Tewkesbury, Worcester, Evesham, Newbury, Pewsey, Oxford, Didcot, Banbury, Moreton, Kingham, Chipping Norton, Devizes and Thatcham.

This area should see gusts no higher than 60mph. More likely and widely, the more common gusts should be 45mph - 55mph though.

Off course, tropographic impacts come into play when forecasting windspeeds, so places like the Mendips and Chilterns might see higher windspeeds than advertised above, but these are likely to be locally limited to prone locations. Unfortunetly, I don't have the geographical knowledge of all our thread area to include this into my forecast, hence why I've listed all urban and semi urban catchments my colour specific areas include, to make it clear my forecast has a urban bias to it rather than an elevation or coastal bias.

All we can do now is watch and see how things evolve anyway. Model watching has finished, it's now down to Satelitte imagery and looking out our windows. We saw how modest 40mph - 60mph gusts blew over trees today around the region, so I have little doubt that further damage and tree deaths will occur overnight tonight. Stay safe peeps, it is going to be nervy for some of us tonight. Don't wind board in Lyme Bay, don't abseil down the Severn Bridge, don't go snorkelling off Lundy Island, don't go sailing to the Sicily Isles and don't attempt a channel swim!

Stay safe and don't be stupid and most of us should be fine.

Edited October 27, 2013 by AWD

[windseeker]

winds dropped dramatically in the solent to F3 gusting F4 and went southerly at 7pm are now going back to SW F4 gusting F7

 

http://www.bramblemet.co.uk/

 

bugger all wind N Hants at mo

[fUnKy]

Thanks, good luck in your new location!

Thanks, left due to (lack of) money after finishing uni, but Hopefully be back that way soon if I get the job I want.