Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[keithlucky]

Get the snow ploughs ready! Won't happen though, probably

 

 

Pretty good chance Bobby lol

[whiskers]

Pretty good chance Bobby lol

What would happen if these charts were to happen xmas week? Would there be more snow and tumps of excitement?

[keithlucky]

What would happen if these charts were to happen xmas week? Would there be more snow and tumps of excitement?

Yes more excitement no mother in law!

Edited November 14, 2013 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

Horror winter predicted for Swansea and South West Wales - worse than anything seen in modern times, say forecasters

Read more: http://www.southwales-eveningpost.co.uk/Horror-winter-predicted-Swansea-South-West-Wales/story-20080697-detail/story.html?fb_action_ids=10151983292645042&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map={"10151983292645042"%3A1434090413472147}&action_type_map={"10151983292645042"%3A"og.likes"}&action_ref_map=[]#ixzz2kfIWxLov

Edited November 14, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Nice set up from Tuesday Wednesday plenty of convection and heavy showers around

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by keithlucky

[J10]

Horror winter predicted for Swansea and South West Wales - worse than anything seen in modern times, say forecastersRead more: http://www.southwales-eveningpost.co.uk/Horror-winter-predicted-Swansea-South-West-Wales/story-20080697-detail/story.html?fb_action_ids=10151983292645042&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map={"10151983292645042"%3A1434090413472147}&action_type_map={"10151983292645042"%3A"og.likes"}&action_ref_map=[]#ixzz2kfIWxLov

 

James Madden is not a forecaster lol.

 

There was a full thread on NW entirely debunking his original forecast. Since deleted as it was not at all kind to James.

Edited November 15, 2013 by J10

[andymusic]

James Madden is not a forecaster lol.

let's hope he ain't right then!

[J10]

Get the snow ploughs ready! Won't happen though, probably

 

 

 

Those charts although in better details than those shown by Andymusic, still tend to over represent snowfall and the risk of snowfall.

 

The irony of the 18Hz is while precipitation amounts are higher [than the 12Hz], other factors such as thicknesses and 850HPA temps are less conducive for snow.

 

I can certainly understand why those living in upper parts of the Valleys would be interested in such setups though.

[andymusic]

Those charts although in better details than those shown by Andymusic, still tend to over represent snowfall and the risk of snowfall.

 

The irony of the 18Hz is while precipitation amounts are higher [than the 12Hz], other factors such as thicknesses and 850HPA temps are less conducive for snow.

 

I can certainly understand why those living in upper parts of the Valleys would be interested in such setups though.

yes - our 1st proper snow of the season should be arriving come this tuesday up here - although today there seemed to be some "sleetiness" already in the showers - reported by others located nearby also!

[Bobby]

James Madden is not a forecaster lol.

 

There was a full thread on NW entirely debunking his original forecast. Since deleted as it was not at all kind to James.

 

As it goes - even a broken clock is right twice a day...

[keithlucky]

Interesting 3 to 5 day outlook even for those on coastal areas,Sunday, outbreaks of rain, clearing early Monday. Then becoming colder, with showers, locally heavy and turning increasingly wintry. Snow likely over higher ground and perhaps to lower levels later.

Edited November 15, 2013 by keithlucky

[J10]

 

Thicknesses 519-522 dam and 1290 (NE Wales to 1298 SW Wales)

850Hpa Temps -6 locally -7c

 

Possible snow but very much on the edge, more likely a wintry mix, and no margin of error.

 

For those inland you would want a mini LP like last night, those who benefit from NW streamers would prefer a straight NW blast, with no LP to mix up the air.

Edited November 15, 2013 by J10

[andymusic]

GFS 12z - plenty of rain/sleet/snow on this afternoon's run for next tuesday/wednesday - as usual at this time of year elevation may certainly help with temps - but potential is still there for some wintry falls anywhere!

Edited November 15, 2013 by andymusic

[Snowmadsam]

GFS 12z - plenty of rain/sleet/snow on this afternoon's run for next tuesday/wednesday - as usual at this time of year elevation may certainly help with temps - but potential is still there for some wintry falls anywhere!

 

But it won't amount to much.....the ground is too warm

[keithlucky]

But it won't amount to much.....the ground is too warm

Don"t worry like some numpties on model thread  quotes like oh my god terrible awful ,need to jump off the cliff etc....The main thing is from Tuesday night onwards wintry precipation will happened the ammount of snow and were it will snow is a nowcasting event ,so try to avoid the model thread until Tuesday

Edited November 15, 2013 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

I agree Keith, people in the model thread expect 3ft of snow in November with Arctic conditions otherwise winters over

[DeepSnow]

I don't expect to see any snow next week, despite being about 100-120meters asl being in a costal town that really hampers my chances! I don't think many will see much being the time of year it is so I don't understand why some people, such as in the model thread expect a proper winter snowfall this time of year? hmm I think some people are a bit desperate to get snow!!

[J10]

My latest prespective for next week.

 

Monday Night into Tuesday

 

A NW flow is due to set-up with the risk of a streamer. Winds WNW veering NNW by 9am Tuesday morning.

 

According to 06Hz

850HPa -6c to -7c

dam 520-522

Thickness 1295m

 

This appears a wintry mix territory, including some snow, but not snow all the way IMO.

 

Wednesday

 

There remains the chance of more general precipitation with a small LP pushing south over the UK, some uncertainty as to this, each run tends to vary a little. This is more marginal with regard to snow, but is of more interest to those in higher ground in the Valleys.

[Snowmadsam]

Just had a chat with Derek over twitter, West Carms/East Pembs are expected to see snow/hail, thunder maybe possible...this could of course bring temps down even further...November 2005 anyone?!

 

Best go home just in case!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just had a chat with Derek over twitter, West Carms/East Pembs are expected to see snow/hail, thunder maybe possible...this could of course bring temps down even further...November 2005 anyone?!

 

Best go home just in case!

 

 

Yep, he said snow mainly on Preselis though, i guess he's saying sleet/hail at lower levels at best.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Snowmadsam

[Snowmadsam]

Yep, he said snow mainly on Preselis though, i guess he's saying sleet/hail at lower levels at best.

 

I'm close enough to them, if thunder does happen then that could lower temperatures and upper air temperatures which would lead to evaporative cooling which would turn precipitation to snow

[J10]

Met Office say ->

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Rain slowly clearing southwards during Monday. Colder thereafter, with sunshine and wintry showers, perhaps to low levels late Tuesday. Wet on Wednesday with further snow possible, mainly on high ground.

[J10]

I'm close enough to them, if thunder does happen then that could lower temperatures and upper air temperatures which would lead to evaporative cooling which would turn precipitation to snow

 

Evaporational cooling requires heavy precipitation not just showers, saying that heavy showers often see snow with less wintry precipitation in lighter bursts.

 

Anyone expecting to see a 2005 event is likely to be disappointed, but the chances of the first snowflakes of the winter is far higher.

[Bobby]

I'm sure I will see snow though it will probably only be on the Brecon Beacons (can see them from my house). A chance of snow to lower levels is possible too. If only the uppers were a bit colder... could still be some nice surprises though. Even if it snows without sticking, that's a rare treat for November, can't complain really.

[marclt]

I'm sure it'll be a watch and wait event.  

 

Pretty cool and overcast here today...