Wales (Cymru) Autumn Regional Discussion 28/10/13 -------->

[mikeocarroll]

The possible streamer on Monday night into Tuesday has IMO a good chance of bringing some snow showers to northern mountains and hills, and perhaps to the Cambrians. The flow seems fairly slack though so not sure how far inland those showers will penetrate. Fear is that by the time any reach here they would be reduced to just a few flakes in the air.

[keithlucky]

Still keepimg a showery flow from the N West Tuesday wednesday radar watch begins Tuesday night as colder air digs south. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png

Edited November 16, 2013 by keithlucky

[whiskers]

Any bodies thoughts on a white xmas?

[J10]

Latest update

 

According to 06Hz (GFS)

850HPa -6c

dam 519-522

Thickness 1293-1296m

 

According to 06Hz (NAE)

850HPa -6c (generally) to -7c (NE Wales)

dam 520-524

Thickness sub 1300m

 

 

This remains a wintry mix territory, including some snow, but not snow all the way IMO,

 

For Wednesday, the risk of snow seems lower as the 850HPa temps are much milder than previously suggested .

 

Met Office Latest update

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining cold Tuesday with sunshine and wintry showers, and snow on higher ground. Wet on Wednesday, with some snow on hills. Sunshine and isolated wintry showers on Thursday.

 

 

[andymusic]

 

latest nae

 

+ models still not settled where potential snow events will or won't occur - gonna be down to the day I think - this low is winding itself right up now!

 

cold and windy night to come tuesday - wednesday

 

Edited November 17, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

 

latest nae

 

+ models still not settled where potential snow events will or won't oocur - gonna be down to the day I think - this low is winding itself right up now!

Yes Andy snow is a good possibility and nowcasting weather watching event.

[Bobby]

I think the most likely outcome is settling snow confined to high ground, a wintry mix on lower ground, not much more than that. Most likely to see rain than snow it seems. Oh well, winter not even started yet.

[Panayiotis]

I think the best potential to SEE falling snow is Tuesday even at low levels. I think only for high ground will see snow on Wednesday but I think lower levels will see cold rain *possibly* turning sleety on the back edge of front.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[immortal1969]

yes - our 1st proper snow of the season should be arriving come this tuesday up here - although today there seemed to be some "sleetiness" already in the showers - reported by others located nearby also!

Im glad I saw this because I was in Llandysul on Thursday and was sure that I saw a few flakes coming down......I thought I was going mad

[andymusic]

latest gfs 18z for wednesday evening -

 

 

 

and night

 

 

thursday morning

 

Edited November 17, 2013 by andymusic

[marclt]

Mercredi, that's Wednesday isn't it. 

[andymusic]

Mercredi, that's Wednesday isn't it. 

 yep sorry - just corrected it - trying to do too many things at once!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol

 

 

definite upgrade for wintry/snow potential for WALES for wednesday/thursday now as the low trundles down from the north a little bit later!

 

nae update to follow shortly

 

Looks like a dangler for Sam with this update from the nae

 

Edited November 17, 2013 by andymusic

[J10]

Latest update

 

According to 06Hz (GFS)

850HPa -6c

dam 519-522

Thickness 1293-1296m

 

According to 06Hz (NAE)

850HPa -6c (generally) to -7c (NE Wales)

dam 520-524

Thickness sub 1300m

 

13111906_2_1706.gif

 

This remains a wintry mix territory, including some snow, but not snow all the way IMO,

 

For Wednesday, the risk of snow seems lower as the 850HPa temps are much milder than previously suggested .

 

Met Office Latest update

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining cold Tuesday with sunshine and wintry showers, and snow on higher ground. Wet on Wednesday, with some snow on hills. Sunshine and isolated wintry showers on Thursday.

 

According to 18Hz (NAE)

850HPa -7c (generally)

dam sub 522

Thickness sub 1300m

 

Dewpoints Sub zero across Wales for Tuesday 6am, Locally -2 to -3c

 

 

With subzero Dewpoints, wintry showers are likely to include falling snow in many places, but as others have said (including Met Office) settling snow much higher up.

 

However in contrast GFS not looking as good with winds more N/NE and upper temps ever so slightly higher. Only fair to mention this in interest of balance.

Edited November 17, 2013 by J10

[Blackjack]

Are things moving into place for possible longer lasting cold?

Most LRFs have been for a mild green winter.

[andymusic]

Are things moving into place for possible longer lasting cold?Most LRFs have been for a mild green winter.

 

models in disagreement at the mo - but alot of forecasters are actually going for a severe snowy one - could well turn out that way - things may fall into place over the next few weeks - but 1st taste of winter on the cards as from about tuesday this week

[Snowmadsam]

 yep sorry - just corrected it - trying to do too many things at once!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol

 

 

definite upgrade for wintry/snow potential for WALES for wednesday/thursday now as the low trundles down from the north a little bit later!

 

nae update to follow shortly

 

Looks like a dangler for Sam with this update from the nae

 

 

Thats too far east haha...never happy xD

 

Put a bet on with mum today that she will see snow see disagrees....£10 is mine hehe

[marclt]

The band seems to have moved across Wales. Sunshine breaking through.  Any noticeable dip in temperatures yet?

[Marcus_surfer]

Very slight drop since 1 pm. (Half a degree) 8.4C still fairly mild

[Phantom2]

noticeable drop in temp since the rain has gone through, nearly a whole 2c here in Rhoose !

[andymusic]

nae - north and west wales tomoz - wintry showers approaching wales on radar now!

 

 

so anyone up for completing this -

 

Red Sky In The "Afternoon" (lovely red sky today)

Shepherd's ................................

 

 

answers on a postcard lol!

 

only one I can come up with is "doom and gloom"?????????????????

Edited November 18, 2013 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

nae - north and west wales tomoz - wintry showers approaching wales on radar now!

 

Reports from Ireland that temperatures are down to 3c and dropping fast a few hrs before our temperatures fall to that level.

[TonyH]

Very heavy hail and rain showers here in Lampeter, God I love hail!

[Stevetynant]

Oddly the temperature has just risen here in the last hour from 3 to 4.2c. Planning on getting up at 4.30am to do some comet spotting in the morning already looking like a three sock job.

[keithlucky]

Snowing in N Ireland they really packing in the showers there,they could well have under estermated the ammount of snow the North will have ,let see if a Irish sea streamer gets going later on.in the night.

[Panayiotis]

I really hope I see some flurries! Will get me in the mood for Christmas! Otherwise it looks like a sunny day tomorrow!