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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

CreweCold

By CreweCold
in Spring Weather Discussion

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CreweCold Maestro

CreweCold

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
    • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Posted

    Last thread was getting slightly long. Time for a fresh one I think.

     

    So we've got Ian Brown and Gavin in one corner already flying the 'mild flag' and me and a few others in the other corner flying the flag for all things cold, wintry and positively snowy!

     

    Carry on the chat here... oh and  this is for all you snow lovers....

     

    Posted Image ( Picture Source: Metoffice.gov.uk)

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    bobbydog Maestro

    bobbydog

    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Posted · Hidden by reef, October 29, 2013 - No reason given
    Hidden by reef, October 29, 2013 - No reason given

    anyone fancy a pint.....?

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    feb1991blizzard Maestro

    feb1991blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
    • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted · Hidden by reef, October 29, 2013 - No reason given
    Hidden by reef, October 29, 2013 - No reason given

    anyone fancy a pint.....?

     

    Just having a 9% one now after 3 others earlier and a whisky!!!

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    CreweCold Maestro

    CreweCold

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
    • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    • Author
    Posted (edited)

    First wintry charts from the GFS this season deep in FI

     

    post-10987-0-77848900-1383001217_thumb.p

     

    post-10987-0-93915600-1383001272_thumb.p

     

    Out in la la land but serves to remind people why writing off a whole month as mild might be a silly idea....+AO to -AO in the blink of an eye.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    feb1991blizzard Maestro

    feb1991blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
    • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted

    First wintry charts from the GFS this season deep in FI

     

    Posted ImageNov Wintry.png

     

    Posted ImageNov Wintry 2.png

     

    Out in la la land but serves to remind people why writing off a whole month as mild might be a silly idea....+AO to -AO in the blink of an eye.

     

     

    I do think that IF we are to get an early blast, and I am far from convinced yet but that is the most likely route to it IMO.

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    CreweCold Maestro

    CreweCold

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
    • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    • Author
    Posted

    I do think that IF we are to get an early blast, and I am far from convinced yet but that is the most likely route to it IMO.

     

    Remember Feb......unsettled/stormy then progressively colder through November....

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    feb1991blizzard Maestro

    feb1991blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
    • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted

    Remember Feb......unsettled/stormy then progressively colder through November....

     

    Yes, 2 years running spring to mind there!!!!, although the first one didn't get going until Dec.

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    feb1991blizzard Maestro

    feb1991blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
    • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted

    I wonder if that GFS will have any GEFS support at all, not expecting loads to go below 528dam but if 3 or 4 show some kind of ridging into Greenland then it will be a step in the right direction.

     

     

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    bobbydog Maestro

    bobbydog

    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Posted

    ahh... the FI tease...

     

    Posted Image

     

    i would love to see the next few frames after that.

     

    another potential ian brown "WTF?" moment there Posted Image 

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    CreweCold Maestro

    CreweCold

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
    • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    • Author
    Posted

    ahh... the FI tease...

     

    Posted Image

     

    i would love to see the next few frames after that.

     

    another potential ian brown "WTF?" moment there Posted Image

     

    LMAO

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    Panayiotis Seasoned

    Panayiotis

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
    • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
    Posted

    18Z GFS comes in line with my thoughts of something colder around the middle of November....

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    Snowman. Accomplished

    Snowman.

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
    • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    Posted (edited)

    One of the best pre-winter charts I have seen.

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by SN0WM4N
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    CreweCold Maestro

    CreweCold

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
    • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    • Author
    Posted

    18Z GFS comes in line with my thoughts of something colder around the middle of November....

     

    Right in line with my thoughts too. A few GEFS members dismantle the zonal train in FI.

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    Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

    Severe Siberian icy blast

    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
    • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    Posted

    post-9095-0-36873200-1383031698_thumb.jp

    Second run on the trot that shows the dismantling of the vortex in deep fi , not saying anything more than that. There has been talk of possible early SSW in November , read an article the other day think it was posted hear somewhere. Could be a trend as we move November. Would love nothing more after the met o released there forecast for November , keep the likes of IB quiet anyway !!

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    tight isobar Maestro

    tight isobar

    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
    • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    Posted

    Defined signs, of pv disrupt perhaps split, my thoughts have been toying with a mid November,onward cold outbreak.And latest trending would most certain be at least hinting(taking shape),along with the very active jet at present, that I feel may burn herself out by around.mid nov, to co-inside with vortex disrupt......ample for the door to open for blocking!!!! Watch this space...

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    Captain Shortwave Maestro

    Captain Shortwave

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
    • Location: Peterborough
    Posted

    There are ifs, buts, and GFS FI perturbations Posted Image 

    Still hopefully the zonal train will be derailed at some point in the near future. 

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    BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

    BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
    • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    Posted (edited)

    I remain in camp of mild to pretty darn mild latter half of Nov, though I think early Nov will bring a sting to it.  I'm not saying 'mild winter/winter over' far from it. Will be interesting to see what recretos says on Strat thread re the PV and signs or not of disruption.

    Looking at CET range as this Oct is going to be well above 12c, 9 Octobers recorded a CET of over 12c, 5 were followed by a cold Dec and 4 by a mild one.

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Buriedundersnow Experienced

    Buriedundersnow

    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
    • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
    Posted

    maybe deep in GFS FI but its good to see high pressure getting sent to higher latitudes maybe a trend starting

     

    post-18233-0-37768900-1383044388_thumb.ppost-18233-0-98738400-1383044397_thumb.ppost-18233-0-52974900-1383044407_thumb.p

     

    maybe it something to do with this in the strat in previous runs

     

    post-18233-0-24420400-1383044448_thumb.ppost-18233-0-93591800-1383044455_thumb.ppost-18233-0-85774700-1383044465_thumb.p

     

    we will have to wait till we get into the reliable for it all to get sorted out and see where we really stand but still good to see and long may it continue


    Posted Imageimage.jpg

    Second run on the trot that shows the dismantling of the vortex in deep fi , not saying anything more than that. There has been talk of possible early SSW in November , read an article the other day think it was posted hear somewhere. Could be a trend as we move November. Would love nothing more after the met o released there forecast for November , keep the likes of IB quiet anyway !!

     

     

    this the article you were thinking of

     

    http://weatherworksinc.com/early-November-snow-threat

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    Barry12 Seasoned

    Barry12

    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
    • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
    Posted

    Who knows? a cold blast may start in mid November, and James Madden will be correct Posted Image

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    BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

    BLAST FROM THE PAST

    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
    • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    Posted

    Who knows? a cold blast may start in mid November, and James Madden will be correct Posted Image

    Ahhh, but it has to be non stop until April!!

     

    BFTP

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    Snowstorm1 Apprentice

    Snowstorm1

    Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
    • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
    Posted

    Ahhh, but it has to be non stop until April!!

     

    BFTP

     

    This is 2009 allover again to me... surely it cant happen ; can it?

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