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Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Last thread was getting slightly long. Time for a fresh one I think.

 

So we've got Ian Brown and Gavin in one corner already flying the 'mild flag' and me and a few others in the other corner flying the flag for all things cold, wintry and positively snowy!

 

Carry on the chat here... oh and  this is for all you snow lovers....

 

Posted Image ( Picture Source: Metoffice.gov.uk)

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted · Hidden by reef, October 29, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by reef, October 29, 2013 - No reason given

anyone fancy a pint.....?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted · Hidden by reef, October 29, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by reef, October 29, 2013 - No reason given

anyone fancy a pint.....?

 

Just having a 9% one now after 3 others earlier and a whisky!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

First wintry charts from the GFS this season deep in FI

 

post-10987-0-77848900-1383001217_thumb.p

 

post-10987-0-93915600-1383001272_thumb.p

 

Out in la la land but serves to remind people why writing off a whole month as mild might be a silly idea....+AO to -AO in the blink of an eye.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

First wintry charts from the GFS this season deep in FI

 

Posted ImageNov Wintry.png

 

Posted ImageNov Wintry 2.png

 

Out in la la land but serves to remind people why writing off a whole month as mild might be a silly idea....+AO to -AO in the blink of an eye.

 

 

I do think that IF we are to get an early blast, and I am far from convinced yet but that is the most likely route to it IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I do think that IF we are to get an early blast, and I am far from convinced yet but that is the most likely route to it IMO.

 

Remember Feb......unsettled/stormy then progressively colder through November....

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Remember Feb......unsettled/stormy then progressively colder through November....

 

Yes, 2 years running spring to mind there!!!!, although the first one didn't get going until Dec.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I wonder if that GFS will have any GEFS support at all, not expecting loads to go below 528dam but if 3 or 4 show some kind of ridging into Greenland then it will be a step in the right direction.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

ahh... the FI tease...

 

Posted Image

 

i would love to see the next few frames after that.

 

another potential ian brown "WTF?" moment there Posted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

ahh... the FI tease...

 

Posted Image

 

i would love to see the next few frames after that.

 

another potential ian brown "WTF?" moment there Posted Image

 

LMAO

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

18Z GFS comes in line with my thoughts of something colder around the middle of November....

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

One of the best pre-winter charts I have seen.

 

Posted Image

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

18Z GFS comes in line with my thoughts of something colder around the middle of November....

 

Right in line with my thoughts too. A few GEFS members dismantle the zonal train in FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

post-9095-0-36873200-1383031698_thumb.jp

Second run on the trot that shows the dismantling of the vortex in deep fi , not saying anything more than that. There has been talk of possible early SSW in November , read an article the other day think it was posted hear somewhere. Could be a trend as we move November. Would love nothing more after the met o released there forecast for November , keep the likes of IB quiet anyway !!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Defined signs, of pv disrupt perhaps split, my thoughts have been toying with a mid November,onward cold outbreak.And latest trending would most certain be at least hinting(taking shape),along with the very active jet at present, that I feel may burn herself out by around.mid nov, to co-inside with vortex disrupt......ample for the door to open for blocking!!!! Watch this space...

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

There are ifs, buts, and GFS FI perturbations Posted Image 

Still hopefully the zonal train will be derailed at some point in the near future. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I remain in camp of mild to pretty darn mild latter half of Nov, though I think early Nov will bring a sting to it.  I'm not saying 'mild winter/winter over' far from it. Will be interesting to see what recretos says on Strat thread re the PV and signs or not of disruption.

Looking at CET range as this Oct is going to be well above 12c, 9 Octobers recorded a CET of over 12c, 5 were followed by a cold Dec and 4 by a mild one.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

maybe deep in GFS FI but its good to see high pressure getting sent to higher latitudes maybe a trend starting

 

post-18233-0-37768900-1383044388_thumb.ppost-18233-0-98738400-1383044397_thumb.ppost-18233-0-52974900-1383044407_thumb.p

 

maybe it something to do with this in the strat in previous runs

 

post-18233-0-24420400-1383044448_thumb.ppost-18233-0-93591800-1383044455_thumb.ppost-18233-0-85774700-1383044465_thumb.p

 

we will have to wait till we get into the reliable for it all to get sorted out and see where we really stand but still good to see and long may it continue


Posted Imageimage.jpg

Second run on the trot that shows the dismantling of the vortex in deep fi , not saying anything more than that. There has been talk of possible early SSW in November , read an article the other day think it was posted hear somewhere. Could be a trend as we move November. Would love nothing more after the met o released there forecast for November , keep the likes of IB quiet anyway !!

 

 

this the article you were thinking of

 

http://weatherworksinc.com/early-November-snow-threat

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Who knows? a cold blast may start in mid November, and James Madden will be correct Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Who knows? a cold blast may start in mid November, and James Madden will be correct Posted Image

Ahhh, but it has to be non stop until April!!

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

Ahhh, but it has to be non stop until April!!

 

BFTP

 

This is 2009 allover again to me... surely it cant happen ; can it?

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