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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The twentyninth tropical depression of the 2013 West Pacific typhoon season has formed roughly 700 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines. The depression has winds of 30kts. 29W has shallow convection which is gradually becoming better organised about the tightning LLC. Conditions ahead look favourable for intensification, as 29W heads west-northwestwards along the south side of a strong subtropical ridge to the north. Shear is low, and waters are warm east of the Philippines. Therefore, 29W will likely become a typhoon prior to landfall in Luzon in around 2 days time. Crossing the rugged terrain of Luzon will take some strength out of 29W, but re-intensification could occur in the South China Sea (SCS), as waters are also warm here, and shear looks to stay relatively low. 29W should continue west-northwest across the northern SCS and then make a second landfall, this time on Hainan Island, as a typhoon if the conditions allow. A third landfall is then expected after 29W crosses the Gulf Of Tonkin and makes landfall near Hanoi, Vietnam. These three areas need to closely watch 29W, as flooding rains and damaging winds are a serious threat from this system.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    29W has become Tropical Storm Krosa, with winds of 40kts. Convection has significantly deepened over the LLCC, and banding features have wrapped more tightly into the system. There are even hints of an eye trying to form. This suggests Krosa is about to undergo rapid intensification prior to the first of three landfalls, which is progged to occur in just over 24 hours time.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
     

     

    Tropical storm Krosa is forecast to strike the Philippines as a typhoon at about 04:00 GMT on 31 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 17.2 N, 123.3 E. Krosa is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 120 km/h (74 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
     
    According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Krosa's strength (category 1) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 1.2-1.5 metres (4-5 feet) above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

     

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    http://www.trust.org/item/20131030010426-ewa6g/?source=hppartner

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Dual outflow channels, low shear and very warm water have allowed quick intensification of Krosa. Winds are just below typhoon strength, at 60kts. Krosa is expected to become a typhoon very soon, prior to landfall. JTWC forecast a peak of 75kts prior to landfall on Luzon. After losing some strength crossing land, JTWC forecast Krosa to become a cat 2 typhoon on the SS scale before slamming into Hainan Island.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

     

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    With winds of up to 111 kph, storm Krosa is moving east towards the Philippines’ Luzon Island and is set to hit the island tonight before entering the East Sea towards Hoang Sa (Paracel) archipelago, the National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center reported. At 7 am today, October 31, Krosa was centered at 17.9 degrees latitude north and 124.2 degrees longitude east, 340 km east of Luzon. Winds near the eye reached 111 kph, with gusts of 118- 149 kph.
     
    The tropical storm is moving west-northwest at a speed of about 20-25 kph. It will strengthen and sweep through Luzon this evening before entering the East Sea. At 7 am November 1, the storm will be at 18.7 degrees latitude north, 119 degrees longitude east, about 850 km east-northeast of Hoang Sa Islands, packing winds of 120 kph and gusts of 134-166 kph. Over the ensuing 24 hours, the typhoon will move between west and west-northwest at a slower speed of 10-15 kph, but will continue to strengthen. At 1 am Saturday, November 2, the storm will be about 420 km east-northeast of Hoang Sa, with winds of 103-133 kph and gusts of 150-183 kph.
     
    Due to the storm, as of tonight the northeast area of the East Sea will experience rough seas and strong winds of up to 88 kph. In areas near the storm’s eye, the winds will be stronger, up to 117 kph, with gusts of over 166 kph. Yesterday afternoon the National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center conducted a meeting with concerned agencies to discuss preparations to cope with the storm that may affect central Vietnam.

     

     

     

    http://tuoitrenews.vn/society/14609/storm-krosa-to-enter-east-sea-heading-for-hoang-sa

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Krosa is now a 90kt cat 2 typhoon. The eye is clear to see moving just north of the north coast of Luzon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

     

    Typhoon Krosa is beginning to pull away from the Philippines' northern Luzon Island on Friday, local time, as it heads in a westerly direction toward Vietnam this weekend.
    Damaging winds, flooding rain, and a large storm surge all plagued Luzon Island thanks to the passage of Typhoon Krosa. Aparri, a community along the northern coast of Luzon, recorded a peak wind gust of 107 kph (67 mph) as well as over a foot of rain. The strongest impacts from Krosa remained to the north of the Philippines capitol city of Manila.
     
    According to Accuweather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak, "125-250 mm (5-10 inches) of rainfall is expected across northern Luzon through Friday as Krosa passes over the area from east to west." This amount of rainfall will produce flooding problems and potential mudslides.
     
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    This satellite, courtesy of NOAA, captured Krosa as it was making landfall on Luzon late Thursday.
     
    Some rain associated with Krosa will also spread over eastern Taiwan through Friday, threatening to hinder earthquake cleanup efforts. While the interaction with Luzon will cause some weakening, Krosa will still be a typhoon when it reaches the South China Sea on Friday. Krosa will then remain over open water through the weekend, tracking as if it is heading toward Hong Kong through Saturday before curving to the southwest away from mainland China by Sunday.

     

     

     

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/krosa-strengthening-philippine/19412544

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Interaction with Luzon weakened Krosa to 75kts, but the typhoon has ramped up considerably this evening, and is now a 100kt cat 3 on the SS scale. The small eye I noted when Krosa was skirting the north coast of Luzon was disrupted by land but has now been replaced by a much larger eye which has cleared out this evening. Low shear, warm waters and robust outflow has allowed the rapid strengthening over the last 12 hours. Krosa has continued moving west along the south side of a ridge to the north, but should turn southwestwards soon in the vicinity of Hainan Island as a new ridge builds to the northwest of Krosa. Krosa is probably near peak intensity, as shear is higher where Krosa is headed, plus the typhoon is expected to interact with land soon (Hainan Island). However, Krosa is still likely to be a threat to Vietnam in the longer term, the threat being mainly from flooding rains. In the nearer term however, Hainan Island has this to be concerned about with damaging winds also being very likely.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Krosa has weakened to 65kts. The typhoon is under some moderate shear and is ingesting some dry air, which has caused the weakening. These conditions should cause Krosa to further weaken over the next few days. Krosa has slowed considerably but should make a definite turn towards the southwest soon as a new ridge builds to the northwest of the system. This ridge will guide Krosa towards Vietnam, where landfall is expected in about 36hrs time, south of Hue.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Krosa dissipated before reaching Vietnam. After I last posted, Krosa unravelled quickly in the high shear, and all the convection dissipated.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
     

     

    Krosa took its time moving from the northern Philippines east through the South China Sea and made a cyclonic loop that took a couple of days. On Nov. 2 at 05:45 UTC/1:45 a.m. EDT the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a view of Typhoon Krosa in the South China Sea, when it was still a typhoon and still had an eye. The next day, wind shear had taken a toll on the storm and weakened it.
     
    By Nov. 4 Krosa was centered over open ocean, southeast of Hainan Island, and about 246 nautical miles south-southwest of Hong Kong, China. Maximum sustained winds had dropped to 25 knots/28.7 mph/46.3 kph and the depression was moving south-southwest at 11 knots/12.6 mph/20.3 kph. Strong wind shear is expected to weaken Krosa even more over the next couple of days. Satellite data on Nov. 5 did not detect any strong convection occurring in the depression.
     
    The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its final bulletin on the storm on Nov. 4 and forecast Krosa to move in a southwesterly direction where it will make landfall far south of Hue, Vietnam on Nov. 5.
     
    Posted Image
     
    Posted Image
    On Nov. 2 at 05:45 UTC/1:45 a.m. EDT the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured this view of Typhoon Krosa in the South China Sea, when it was still a typhoon.

     

     

     

    http://www.sciencecodex.com/nasa_saw_heavy_rain_in_typhoon_krosa_before_it_hit_wind_shear-122315

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