Tropical Cyclone 30W

[Vorticity0123]

And once again a new tropical cyclone has formed in the East Pacific. The active period in TC formation refuses to stop. The tropical cyclone is forecast to slam the southern Philippines as a minimal tropical storm (with the potential of flooding), and then intensify to a typhoon with a peak strength of 70 kt. Thereafter, it is forecast to make landfall in almost the same area as Krosa is forecast to do, in southern Vietnam. There is a threat of very heavy rain and also potential flooding occuring in Vietnam with this double hit.
 

[Somerset Squall]

Yeah, it's certainly an active period. It's been a while since we have got into the thirty's in terms of number of systems classified by JTWC in the West Pacific aswell. Looking at that track, I wonder if 30W could make it into the North Indian Ocean?

[Coast]

Tropical Depression THIRTY: Probability of tropical storm winds to 120 hours lead

 

 

Tropical depression Thirty is forecast to strike the Philippines as a tropical storm at about 00:00 GMT on 5 November. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 9.6 N, 119.3 E. Thirty is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 64 km/h (40 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

 

 

 

http://www.trust.org/item/20131103194002-j07xz/

[Somerset Squall]

30W has weakened to 25kts due to land interaction with the islands of the Southern Philippines. Further development will be disrupted by further land interaction, but conditions in the South China sea do support some intensification before landfall on southern Vietnam.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has increased and become better organised in association with 30W this evening. Winds have increased to 30kts. 30W is emerging into the southern half of the South China Sea currently,  where shear looks to be quite low, and waters warm. Therefore, 30W should soon become a tropical storm. JTWC expect 30W to peak just below typhoon strength before making landfall in southern Vietnam. 30W is expected to weaken to a tropical depression before emerging briefly into the Gulf Of Thailand, then cross the Malay Peninsula into the North Indian Ocean. 30W may not make it this far, but it'll be interesting to see if it does!

 

[Coast]

 

Tropical depression Thirty is forecast to strike Vietnam as a tropical storm at about 18:00 GMT on 6 November. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 12.1 N, 108.4 E. Thirty is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 92 km/h (57 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

 

 

 

http://www.trust.org/item/20131104202103-hby28/

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has been higher than expected in the region of 30W today. The depression briefly became a tropical storm this afternoon according to JTWC, though JMA did not make the upgrade. JTWC have now downgraded 30W back to a tropical depression. Shear has left the rather ill defined LLC almost entirely exposed this evening, and winds have fallen to 25kts. Significant recovery looks unlikely before 30W moves inland tomorrow. Because the depression is not expected to strengthen much, it is unlikely to survive the trip over land into the North Indian Ocean as a tropical cyclone, but it could still regnerate in this basin later.

[Coast]

 

[Somerset Squall]

The remnant low of TD 30W has moved into the Gulf Of Thailand and appears to be reorganising. Convection is increasing near the currently ill defined LLCC. JTWC assess development chances as MEDIUM, due to the low shear and warm sea temps, but proximity to the Malay Peninsula, which could, at least temporarily, disrupt further development as the remnants cross it.

[Vorticity0123]

The remnant low of TD 30W has moved into the Gulf Of Thailand and appears to be reorganising. Convection is increasing near the currently ill defined LLCC. JTWC assess development chances as MEDIUM, due to the low shear and warm sea temps, but proximity to the Malay Peninsula, which could, at least temporarily, disrupt further development as the remnants cross it.

 

Indeed, this system could be ramping up for another landfall. 

The only model I could find for this system is the AVNO, which shows an erratic track toward the central Bay of Bengal:

 

 

This might be as the system is still in its developing stage. As the system gets more pronounced, we might get a better idea at which areas this system might target, as the models get a better initialization with te system.

 

The visible loops show some weak turning, and persistent convection around the system.

And finally:IR Rainbow imagery, showing a band south of the system, indicative of improving organization.

 

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/

[Somerset Squall]

Nine days after degeneration into a remnant low, 30W has redeveloped into a tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean, just off the east coast of Southern India. After landfalling Vietnam 10 days ago, 30W's remains moved across the Gulf Of Thailand, crossed the Malay Peninsula and entered the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal (BOB). Here, the remnant low meandered slowly across the BOB, with little development due to persistant shear. The low has neared the coast of India and has found some slightly lower shear, allowing regeneration into a tropical cyclone. To have 9 days between a storm degenerating below TC strength and regenerating is quite remarkable, and in my memory, can only be matched by TC Hondo's similar feat in the South Indian Ocean in 2008.

 

Though the shear has eased slightly, it is still at moderate levels. As 30W drifts slowly westwards towards the coast, it is unlikely to strengthen much, if at all, past it's current 35kt intensity, due to the shear. Landfall is expected in round 24 hours time over northern Sri Lanka then again in about 36hrs time over southern India.

 

30W's unusual track so far:

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

30W has jogged north overnight, and come across stronger shear. Almost all of the convection is now located well inland to the west of the LLCC, and winds have fallen to 30kts. JTWC have issued their last advisory. 30W will make landfall today in Southern India as a tropical depression. This will have little affect, as the rains from 30W are already well inland.

[Coast]

30W has jogged north overnight, and come across stronger shear.

 

Odd projected track?

 

[Cookie]

Still going? the remnants at least 

[Somerset Squall]

I was just about to post something about this Cookie. An amazing system, it really is. The storm originally formed on the 3rd November, and it's remnants are still persisting. To put this low's life into context, 30W formed at the same time as Super Typhoon Haiyan, and as we all know, that beast was gone long ago.

 

The remnant low, since degenerating over India, emerged over the Arabian Sea. The low has crossed the Arabian Sea and is just east of the island of Sumatra.

 

This is it's track, the triangles indicate the times it is below TC strength (as it is now). Amazing! What also makes it more impressive is that during this system's entire lifetime, it has not gotten any stronger than 35kts. A persistant one to say the least!

 

 

The remnant low has been largely convectionless through it's journey across the Arabian Sea, but there has been a little increase in convection this morning. The low may be too weak to make a significant comeback however, and JTWC don't mention it in their outlook.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Somerset Squall