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little ice age ahead


tynevalleysnow

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

As I've repeatedly said my 'A' Level geog master told us , back in 82', that low solar lead to a propensity of H.P. around the globe ( compared to average sea level pressures) and I've always gone with that 'understanding'. I do not know whether it was his own pet theory or whether there were papers in the early 80's noting such an impact?

 

That said other , terrestrial, forcings must impact the outcome of such a situation? The next solar min (extended or not) will probably have a different mix of forcings and so will show a differing outcome. We are drawing to the end of the timescales that the negative forcings generally work to so may find ourselves with more neutral/positive forcings interacting with solar min this time. For all I know this may favour a run of El- Nino's instead of the last one dominated by Nina's? Would this not place a different spin on the weather we saw here over the winters impacted?

 

When we look at past examples of extended solar mins are they not set against a backdrop of a planet with far more ice and far less GHG's? Do those subtle changes make a difference?

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Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Location: Sydney, Australia

I left the UK a few years ago to return to Oz, it's true that Australia is experiencing record heat for pretty much all of 2013. It's not isolated maxima either, winter minima on average was well above normal and the Sept/ Oct heatwave has led to bushfires of unusual intensity for so early in the season.

 

Bushfires can happen anytime of course, all that is needed is a match and some dry material. But there are bushfires that burn slowly during the cooler months and bushfires that are fanned on hot westerlies in late summer with a roasting continent interior and parched bushland. The latter is very unexpected in October, and hearing of 200 homes being destroyed at this time of year is... well... unheard of previously. The culprit has been a lack of rain at a time that normally sees plenty (especially with IOD and ENSO as they are) - surface groundwater is very low and the bush has the benefit of several years of solid growth and lack of back burning - and a warmer than usual interior that produced westerlies with higher temps than normally found at this time of year.

 

Normally I'd rate it as just a variable weather pattern but, as noted before, ENSO and IOD should be seeing cooler and wetter weather than we have had.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

Same here Fred, no reports of anything extraordinary  just normal Oz weather.

 

 

I don't think reports, or lack of, from a few scattered people is important. It was a very warm Australian winter (for max temps, second warmest on record), a warm autumn, not to mention:

 

 

 

"Summer 2012-2013 heat records

The last seven months have been exceptional in terms of heat records.

During this period, Australia registered the warmest September–March on record, the hottest summer on record, the hottest month on record and the hottest day on record.

A record was also set for the longest national scale heatwave.

It was also the hottest summer on record for Australian sea-surface temperatures. Sea surface temperatures in February were the hottest ever recorded in the region, while January was the warmest on record for that month."

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

 

I don't think reports, or lack of, from a few scattered people is important. It was a very warm Australian winter (for max temps, second warmest on record), a warm autumn, not to mention:

 

 

 

 

 

And you have to remember " None so blind as those that will not see" applies to some of our posters(LOL).

 

It appears that each new monthly update places another 'warmest 12 month' record in danger? That said November looks like it's started cold so I don't know if it will buck the recent trend?

 

It is funny to see some of the denialist bloggers focussing on one cold record possibly being broken ( last night?) in one part of Ozz with all this whacky heat going on all around and being totally ignored by them??? almost as if they are trying to mislead those, who have not been keeping up with the past year of Ozzy weather, into thinking that it's been remarkably cold? why would folk seek to do that?

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

 

I don't think reports, or lack of, from a few scattered people is important. It was a very warm Australian winter (for max temps, second warmest on record), a warm autumn, not to mention:

 

 

 

 

The scattered people live on all three sides of OZ, so I'll go with real peoples experiences rather than corrupted datasets.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

Presumably the very warm bit just happened to be the SE coastal strip where 90% of the activists live.

No.  Record high temps have been reported across much of the continent through this past year.And, for example, the recent October record was recorded at a remote town in WA

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-31/fitzroy-crossing-breaks-national-october/5062408?section=wa

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

btw it's worth remembering that the MM and DM occurred during the LIA - any similar solar minimum today would, for obvious reasons, not have the same consequences. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

btw it's worth remembering that the MM and DM occurred during the LIA - any similar solar minimum today would, for obvious reasons, not have the same consequences.

Lol, I seem to remember a prominent scientist stating that snow would be a thing of the past. Just because the starting point is higher it certainly doesn't mean the effects would not be the same or worse even, remember global temps have been static for seventeen years long before any cool drivers came into play, so imagine what effects a grand minimum will have. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

Lol, I seem to remember a prominent scientist stating that snow would be a thing of the past. Just because the starting point is higher it certainly doesn't mean the effects would not be the same or worse even, remember global temps have been static for seventeen years long before any cool drivers came into play, so imagine what effects a grand minimum will have.

Who knows? All that tropical deforestation could well make quite a profound difference to global weather systems under a polonged extreme solar minimum! btw what's the significance of 17 years as opposed to, say, 18 or 16 years?  Or, indeed, 30 or 50 years?  :p 

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Who knows? All that tropical deforestation could well make quite a profound difference to global weather systems under a polonged extreme solar minimum! btw what's the significance of 17 years as opposed to, say, 18 or 16 years?  Or, indeed, 30 or 50 years?  :p

Lol, it's significant in the fact that there's has been no rise in global temp without any cold drivers, what that means down the line is anyone's guess Essan, but one certainly cannot rule out a MM or any other scenario really. Until it's actually occurring it's all conjecture.
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

Lol, it's significant in the fact that there's has been no rise in global temp without any cold drivers, what that means down the line is anyone's guess Essan, but one certainly cannot rule out a MM or any other scenario really. Until it's actually occurring it's all conjecture.

 

But there has been a rise over the past 16 years :PWhen we have a decade that is colder that the previous one, or better, colder than the 1990s, then I'll beleive that warming has stagnated.  Meantime, we seem to be getting plenty of warm weather despite low solar activity, negative PDO etc not to say various human drivers which may be causing cooling. Wasn't the last La Nina year warmer than most previous El Nino years? Why that?

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon

But there has been a rise over the past 16 years Posted Image

When we have a decade that is colder that the previous one, or better, colder than the 1990s, then I'll beleive that warming has stagnated.  Meantime, we seem to be getting plenty of warm weather despite low solar activity, negative PDO etc not to say various human drivers which may be causing cooling. Wasn't the last La Nina year warmer than most previous El Nino years? Why that?

 

OH, I expect it was 'corrupted data' Posted Image

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

But there has been a rise over the past 16 years Posted Image

When we have a decade that is colder that the previous one, or better, colder than the 1990s, then I'll beleive that warming has stagnated.  Meantime, we seem to be getting plenty of warm weather despite low solar activity, negative PDO etc not to say various human drivers which may be causing cooling. Wasn't the last La Nina year warmer than most previous El Nino years? Why that?

There has been no rise in global surface temps for 17 years, the surface remember that place the place where most of us live. Until we see a decade of rising temps then the theory of global warming will need revising. Now when all the cold drivers are in place and if we don't see global temps decline, then and only then do you have a valid point.Posted Image

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

When we have a decade that is colder that the previous one, or better, colder than the 1990s, then I'll beleive that warming has stagnated.  

Ah, the old decades trick - another way of smoothing 17 years of no warming away Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Ah, the old decades trick - another way of smoothing 17 years of no warming away Posted Image

Oh there good at moving the goal posts, if it's not decades then it's the heats hidden or the trend is still upwards. The reality is that there has been and continues to be no warming at the surface and until that changes expect lot's of frowning and toys out of prams and more corrupted data and smoothed datasets to show a warming trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

There has been no rise in global surface temps for 17 years, the surface remember that place the place where most of us live. Until we see a decade of rising temps then the theory of global warming will need revising. Now when all the cold drivers are in place and if we don't see global temps decline, then and only then do you have a valid point.Posted Image

where does 17 years come from?..i hope you are not hanging your hat on 97-98 which was a very strong El nino year thus was a very high baseline to other years around it.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

btw it's worth remembering that the MM and DM occurred during the LIA - any similar solar minimum today would, for obvious reasons, not have the same consequences. 

 

We had the 2nd coldest December in 350yrs recently

 

Obviously the pause in global warming would not effect our ability to have a similar set up to the last LIA . It wasn't of course always cold. I find the word Little Ice Age misleading. It was a period of colder winters but had mild ones as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

where does 17 years come from?..i hope you are not hanging your hat on 97-98 which was a very strong El nino year thus was a very high baseline to other years around it.

The Met Office.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

The Met Office.

Really?  The Met Office are using a 17 year period when talking about global temps?  News to me .....Still, just as well they arent using a 16 or 18 year period or we wouldn't be having this conversation.  Right? And next year ......

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