little ice age ahead

[VillagePlank]

Who's been slapping linear trends on the hockey stick graph?

My thinking is that the linear trend for the 20th/21st century is simply a help see pass the noise. Perhaps some kind of rolling average would be more suitable?

 

The second order expression - looking at the rate of the rate of change is my favourite, and it's easy to describe in English - see various stuff supposing a link of that rate of rate of change with the AMO etc. It distinctly shows a reduction in the rate of warming, by reason of the a reduction in value, and, crucially, shows that we are not cooling. There's no where to hide with that sort of analysis - and, you can pick whatever end points you want, the result is still the same.

[stewfox]

Who's been slapping linear trends on the hockey stick graph?

My thinking is that the linear trend for the 20th/21st century is simply a help see pass the noise. Perhaps some kind of rolling average would be more suitable?

 

 

Why not just plot the global average temps say for the last 15 years and see what kind of graph you get and agree in terms of potential LIA its not significant ?

Edited November 13, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

The second order expression - looking at the rate of the rate of change is my favourite, and it's easy to describe in English - see various stuff supposing a link of that rate of rate of change with the AMO etc. It distinctly shows a reduction in the rate of warming, by reason of the a reduction in value, and, crucially, shows that we are not cooling. There's no where to hide with that sort of analysis - and, you can pick whatever end points you want, the result is still the same.

 

Sounds good to me!

 

 

Why not just plot the global average temps say for the last 15 years and see what kind of graph you get and agree in terms of potential LIA its not significant ?

 

What can we prove with regard the potential LIA if we use 1999 as our starting point?

[knocker]

And the one behind

 

How soot forced the end of the Little Ice Age in 1860s Europe

ANN ARBOR—Coal soot shrank the Alpine glaciers in mid-19th-century Europe, according to new findings that show how black carbon alone—even without warmer temperatures—can affect ice and snow cover.

 

The research, which involved a University of Michigan atmospheric scientist, provides insights into when the so-called Little Ice Age ended and why European glaciers began to retreat decades before global temperatures rose.

 

 

http://www.ns.umich.edu/new/releases/21662-how-soot-forced-the-end-of-the-little-ice-age-in-1860s-europe

[stewfox]

 

What can we prove with regard the potential LIA if we use 1999 as our starting point?

 

I suppose one needs to agree what a LIA is and accept some feel it can’t happen again given mans influence on the climate. Others will be beg to differ.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

 

I personally believe we are already entering a LIA, the days of snowless winters are long gone. Lamp post watching for snow in 30 yrs time will be a urban myth (3ft of the stuff on the ground why lamp post watch ?).

[BornFromTheVoid]

I suppose one needs to agree what a LIA is and accept some feel it can’t happen again given mans influence on the climate. Others will be beg to differ.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

 

I personally believe we are already entering a LIA, the days of snowless winters are long gone. Lamp post watching for snow in 30 yrs time will be a urban myth (3ft of the stuff on the ground why lamp post watch ?).

 

I can agree that we may be entering a more LIA-like period (greater variability in our weather), but our climate will continue be quite different to the 1600s, with the global climate even more different.

There was more going on in the LIA than just a lack of sunspots too.

[stewfox]

There was more going on in the LIA than just a lack of sunspots too

 

In need ...

 

Measles, small pox, typhus, Morgellons Disease, bubonic plague, septicaemic plague, pnuemonic plague (the three plagues are all part of "Black Death" ), malaria.Whooping Cough,Yellow Fever ,Cholera diphtheria, measles. Those are the ones I know.

 

I'm sure lack of sunspots was not the only item going on back then.

 

Perhaps a moderate short lived LIA and when the natural variability is over ridden by external forcing factors (man made) it will come to a abrupt end, we will see.

 

It will be interesting to see how the JET behaves in future years. Like a teenager more likely to wander

[Methuselah]

Before we see anything remotely similar to the LIA, a measurable degree of global cooling will need to occur. As yet, we've seen none at all.

[stewfox]

Before we see anything remotely similar to the LIA, a measurable degree of global cooling will need to occur. As yet, we've seen none at all.

There is no evidence the last LIA was global so a global cooling is not required

[Methuselah]

There is no evidence the last LIA was global so a global cooling is not required

Is there any evidence that it wasn't? There have been many equatorial 'refugia' that were untouched by the last major glaciation? Just because some localities are affected more than others, doesn't imply that events are not global...Isn't Antarctica bucking the present-day warming trend?

[knocker]

There is no evidence the last LIA was global so a global cooling is not required

 

I wouldn't go quite that far.

 

Study: Peruvian Glacial Retreats Linked to European Events of Little Ice Age

 

DURHAM, N.H. – A new study that reports precise ages for glacial moraines in southern Peru links climate swings in the tropics to those of Europe and North America during the Little Ice Age approximately 150 to 350 years ago. The study, published this week in the journal “Scienceâ€, “brings us one step closer to understanding global-scale patterns of glacier activity and climate during the Little Ice Age,†says lead author Joe Licciardi, associate professor of Earth sciences at the University of New Hampshire. “The more we know about our recent climate past, the better we can understand our modern and future climate.â€

 

 

http://www.unh.edu/news/cj_nr/2009/sept/bp24iceage.cfm

Edited November 13, 2013 by knocker

[VillagePlank]

Sounds good to me!

 

 

 

What can we prove with regard the potential LIA if we use 1999 as our starting point?

 

I guess you and I would be on our own then

[Methuselah]

I wouldn't go quite that far.

 

Study: Peruvian Glacial Retreats Linked to European Events of Little Ice Age

 

 

http://www.unh.edu/news/cj_nr/2009/sept/bp24iceage.cfm

But then, if a well-documented (and widely-accepted by the 'It's the Sun what done it' brigade) decrease in Solar energy (Maunder minimum) didn't cause a global cool-down, how can the more recent (though contestable) higher Solar flux be put forward as an alternative excuse for the last half-century's warming?

 

Och well, another one bites the dust!

[VillagePlank]

But then, if a well-documented (and widely-accepted by the 'It's the Sun what done it' brigade) decrease in Solar energy (Maunder minimum) didn't cause a global cool-down, how can the more recent (though contestable) higher Solar flux be put forward as an alternative excuse for the last half-century's warming?

 

Och well, another one bites the dust!

 

That's just pseudo-scientific nonsense. Enough to get the extremists riled up! How about a few references Pete?

[mikeworst]

This entire thread has been a mishmash of believer ,non-believer unsubstantiated dog biscuits. There is evidence that solar cycles have an influence on climate. To what extent and via what mechanism has not yet been  established. Can we cut the point scoring and focus on the evidence whichever way it points?

Edited November 13, 2013 by mikeworst

[knocker]

I've posted this before but no matter.

 

New CU-led study may answer long-standing questions about enigmatic Little Ice Age -

 

A new University of Colorado Boulder-led study appears to answer contentious questions about the onset and cause of Earth’s Little Ice Age, a period of cooling temperatures that began after the Middle Ages and lasted into the late 19th century.

 

According to the new study, the Little Ice Age began abruptly between A.D. 1275 and 1300, triggered by repeated, explosive volcanism and sustained by a self- perpetuating sea ice-ocean feedback system in the North Atlantic Ocean, according to CU-Boulder Professor Gifford Miller, who led the study. The primary evidence comes from radiocarbon dates from dead vegetation emerging from rapidly melting icecaps on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, combined with ice and sediment core data from the poles and Iceland and from sea ice climate model simulations, said Miller.

 

 

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/01/30/new-cu-led-study-may-answer-long-standing-questions-about-enigmatic-little

Edited November 13, 2013 by knocker

[Methuselah]

That's just pseudo-scientific nonsense. Enough to get the extremists riled up! How about a few references Pete?

So what's all the stuff about Solar Cycles and sunspots all about, then? They either are (as I believe them to be) central to the entire Climate Change enterprise, or they are not; but you cannot have it both ways...Surely, one doesn't need to cite a 'paper' to see that. Corbyn et al have been going-on about it for years...

 

If the Sun's output was to reduce, the planet would cool until a new thermodynamic equilibrium was reached...Wouldn't it?

[mikeworst]

This has already been debunked Knocker.The most infuriating aspect of the copious amounts of climate related papers being published is the lack of verification that follows on. I can understand why students need to try and publish even if the conclusions are dubious but hey! The claim made here is well within well documented and recorded European history. Where is the evidence of such cataclysmic volcanic activity?. This would have been very obvious if it resulted in an event as marked as the little ice age. There is none.It is all very well to make claims like this but there is no way that that such a momentous event would have gone undocumented. 

[Methuselah]

This has already been debunked Knocker.The most infuriating aspect of the copious amounts of climate related papers being published is the lack of verification that follows on. I can understand why students need to try and publish even if the conclusions are dubious but hey! The claim made here is well within well documented and recorded European history. Where is the evidence of such cataclysmic volcanic activity?. This would have been very obvious if it resulted in an event as marked as the little ice age. There is none.It is all very well to make claims like this but there is no way that that such a momentous event would have gone undocumented. I call foul and nonsense.

It could like many things in Nature, Mike; the combination of a lot of factors, many of which (individually anyway) go unnoticed; for example, Solar radiation apart, wouldn't urban smogs have caused a dip in recorded temperatures?

[UV-RAY]

This entire thread has been a mishmash of believer ,non-believer unsubstantiated dog biscuits. There is evidence that solar cycles have an influence on climate. To what extent and via what mechanism has not yet been  established. Can we cut the point scoring and focus on the evidence whichever way it points?

Excellent point, this thread wasn't for the purpose of arguing the for's and against. Can we all just discuss the impacts.

[Gray-Wolf]

This has already been debunked Knocker.The most infuriating aspect of the copious amounts of climate related papers being published is the lack of verification that follows on. I can understand why students need to try and publish even if the conclusions are dubious but hey! The claim made here is well within well documented and recorded European history. Where is the evidence of such cataclysmic volcanic activity?. This would have been very obvious if it resulted in an event as marked as the little ice age. There is none.It is all very well to make claims like this but there is no way that that such a momentous event would have gone undocumented. 

 

I think the papers explaining the impacts of the 4 major eruptions,, for the 1550 onset have been in wide circulation since Dec 2012 Mike? I've not seen any rebuttals in my searches though? And then this september brought the papers looking at the 12 and 1300's eruptions.

 

Every volcano has a 'fingerprint' in it's ejecta as all the magmas are unique in nature. To find dust in ice cores/lake sediments allows us to also accurately date the eruptions.

 

These sources will allow you to find what you require;

 

http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/indonesias-samalas-volcano-may-have-kickstarted-the-little-ice-age/

 

http://www.livescience.com/18205-ice-age-volcanoes-sea-ice.html

 

EDIT: The thread title is 'Little Ice age ahead' SI? Pretty wide area to go at I'd think but first of all we need establish what a 'Little Ice Age' is and what goes into causing one?

 

When we have that cleared up we can go onto looking if any of the myriad of forcings are there in our climate today to enable any 're-run' of the event to occur.

 

At the moment it appears that we have none of the known major ingredients present in the last cooling?

Edited November 13, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

Excellent point, this thread wasn't for the purpose of arguing the for's and against. Can we all just discuss the impacts.

But, how can we discuss the 'impacts' of something that might not (evens?) even happen

[UV-RAY]

But, how can we discuss the 'impacts' of something that might not (evens?) even happen

We discuss catastrophic warming and the likes so whats the difference?

 

Oh sorry there's a warmest agenda which has to debunk anything which questions the almighty theory regardless of facts or other. Sorry for the rant but it appears anything that's posted which goes against a warming world  gets the usual responses from the usual suspects.

Edited November 13, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Gael_Force]

I've posted this before but no matter.

 

New CU-led study may answer long-standing questions about enigmatic Little Ice Age -

 

 

A new University of Colorado Boulder-led study appears to answer contentious questions about the onset and cause of Earth’s Little Ice Age, a period of cooling temperatures that began after the Middle Ages and lasted into the late 19th century.

 

According to the new study, the Little Ice Age began abruptly between A.D. 1275 and 1300, triggered by repeated, explosive volcanism and sustained by a self- perpetuating sea ice-ocean feedback system in the North Atlantic Ocean, according to CU-Boulder Professor Gifford Miller, who led the study. The primary evidence comes from radiocarbon dates from dead vegetation emerging from rapidly melting icecaps on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, combined with ice and sediment core data from the poles and Iceland and from sea ice climate model simulations, said Miller.

 

 

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/01/30/new-cu-led-study-may-answer-long-standing-questions-about-enigmatic-little

 

Something else changed around the the era highlighted above - a rapid decline in solar activity. We need to look what went before the Maunder we are so familiar with.

 

[Methuselah]

We discuss catastrophic warming and the likes so whats the difference?

 

Oh sorry there's a warmist agenda which has to debunk anything which questions the almighty theory regardless of facts or other. 

I've never discussed 'catastrophic warming' in my life!