western pacific Tropical Storm Podul

[Vorticity0123]

As Sommerset Squall and others noted in the thread of Haiyan, another invest has developed in the West Pacific, which could strike the Philippines. The invest is currently rather disorganized, and only broad cyclonic rotation is noted in the IR loop below. 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90W/flash-vis-long.html

 

As the system is not yet recognized on the CIMSS web site, the analysis will be done by charts of the complete West Pacific.

 

Current shear levels are low around the system, as an anticyclone is directly overhead (or just to the west of the system). The system itself is currently located near 2.0N, 144.0E. The anticyclone can be found as the area where the wind vectors spiral out of that particular point. (around 2N, 142E)

 

 

 

Shear tendency over the past 24 hours shows that the shear is decreasing to the west of the cyclone, but increasing to the east of the cyclone. (Cyclone Haiyan is the cyclone indicated with the red cyclonic shape, this is not the area I'm discussing right now).

 

Concluding, shear levels are quite favorable around the cyclone, improving the chances on development.

 

Next is the 850 hPa vorticity. The vorticity map shows that there is currently some pronounced vorticity at the area of the invest, though slightly west of the position the JTWC is indicating.

 

 

An overview of the West Pacific in Water Vapor imagery does show high levels of dry air directly to the north of 90W, but because this system is at such low latitude, I don't think it will be a big impediment to development.

 

Because the area hasn't been initialized as an invest yet, there are also no direct TC forecast tracks available. Because of that, the GFS full WPAC charts will be used to make a forecast.

 

Below is a forecast of the MSLP (minimum surface level pressure) at T84, based on the GFS output. It shows a weak TC making landfall just to the south of the area Haiyan hit yesterday. This could lead to even more heavy rainfall and consequently flash floods to the already soaked middle and southern Philippines. It would be a very bad scenario if this pans out.

 

And finally, the NAVGEM model (it doesn't seem to be very reliable). It also shows a weak cyclone making landfall right at the spot Haiyan made landfall (T96hr)

 

Currently, the available models aren't showing a real monster to develop. As the system becomes more pronounced and gets initialized by the models, we'll get a better assessment and forecast of the system, and how much it could impact the Philippines.

 

Let's hope a disaster like Haiyan won't repeat itself with this system. 

 

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/31W/31W_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

http://tc.met.psu.edu/wpac/indexwpac.html

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Edited November 9, 2013 by Vorticity0123

[Gael_Force]

GFS has it on a horrible track for all the pour souls with no shelter after Haiyan.

 

Edit CMC ditto.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

 

 

 

 

Edited November 9, 2013 by Gael_Force

[summer blizzard]

Has a typhoon ever stayed far enough south to hit Indonesia?

[Vorticity0123]

Has a typhoon ever stayed far enough south to hit Indonesia?

 

Yes, it was Tropical cyclone Vamei in 2001/2002 which hit Sumatra as a tropical storm (it hit Malaysia as a typhoon). The cyclone developed at 1.4N, about the lowest latitude a TC has ever formed. (according to Wikipedia).

 

 

The track of Vamei, showing landfall in Malaysia and Indonesia.

 

However, according to JMA, this record has almost been broken by 36W, which developed at 1.5N. The JTWC hasn't designated the invest as a TC yet. Very impressive to see TC formation at such low latitudes.

 

The WPAC cyclone season has become a very interesting season at that, with a record-active October (regarding Typhoon formation), the most intense cyclone to make landfall, with the horrible consequences (unfortunately, death tolls still seem to be rising), and now a TC developing at 1.5N latitude.

 

Finally, visible imagery of 90W/36W, showing some pretty intense convection occuring over a possible LLCC.

 

More information about Haiyan and 90/36W can be found at http://dutch.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2575&page=4#commenttop

 

 

Sources:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/ac.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Vamei

Edited November 10, 2013 by Vorticity0123

[Gael_Force]

JMA have their first warning, now on the tracking map.

 

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[Vorticity0123]

30W/Zoraida hasn't strengthened yet, fortunately. This means that strong winds and storm surge won't be an issue with this cyclone. Also, models have been trending south away from the areas hit the worst by Haiyan. Another TC would have been the last thing they needed.

 

 

Unfortunately, rain bands of 30W are hitting the worst-hit areas, as seen in WV-imagery.

 

 

As from PAGASA, the rain totals are expected to be up to 15mm/h within a radius of 300 km away from the invest. That would mean the worst-hit areas would suffer some rain, but the totals won't be devastating.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/fcst/bulletin.pdf

 

My heart goes out to the people hit by Haiyan and Zoraida.

 

Sources:

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northwestpacific/2013/wp902013/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

Edited November 11, 2013 by Vorticity0123

[Coast]

 

 

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 

190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 130.7E TO 9.8N 121.5E 

WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY 

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. 

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT 

IMAGERY AT 111530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED 

NEAR 6.8N 129.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS. 

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 

136.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 473 NM EAST OF 

ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 

A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH 

FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. AN 111231Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A 

PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 

OFF TO THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111231Z ASCAT 

IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME 

ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL 

ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD 

RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 

TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 

MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30 areas under storm signal as 'Zoraida' nears Davao region

 

MANILA, Philippines - More areas in the south have been placed under a public storm warning signal as Tropical Depression "Zoraida" moves closer to the Davao region, state weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday. The agency said in its 5 a.m. bulletin that Zoraida was last spotted at 216 kilometers southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur or at 192 kilometers east of Davao City.

 

The tropical cyclone is bearing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour near the center and is forecast to move northwest at 30 kph. Moderate to heavy rainfall is estimated within the 300-kilometer diameter of the tropical depression. PAGASA said residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to be alert against possible flashfloods and landslides. Sea travel is also risky over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzo

 

http://www.philstar.com/nation/2013/11/12/1255833/30-areas-under-storm-signal-zoraida-nears-davao-region

 

[Somerset Squall]

Organisation has improved significantly with invest 90W this afternoon and the system has been declared Tropical Storm Podul, with winds of 35kts. With landfall expected over southern Vietnam within the next 12hrs, Podul is probably at it's peak. Heavy rains are the primary concern.

[Coast]

 

 

JTWC Advisory

 

 

WTPN31 PGTW 141500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141151Z NOV 13//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL) WARNING NR 001    

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   141200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 111.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 111.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 11.3N 108.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   151200Z --- 10.8N 105.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 110.8E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM

EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD

AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 

AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z AND 

150900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON 

WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 141151Z NOV 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 

ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 141200).//

 

 

 

 

JMA Advisory

 

WTPQ20 RJTD 141500

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME  TS 1331 PODUL (1331) 

ANALYSIS

PSTN  141500UTC 12.0N 110.6E FAIR

MOVE  W 15KT

PRES  1002HPA

MXWD  035KT

GUST  050KT

30KT  120NM NORTHWEST 90NM SOUTHEAST

FORECAST

24HF  151500UTC 10.6N 105.2E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Coast]

[Somerset Squall]

Podul has moved inland and is weakening. JTWC have issued their last advisory. Podul's remains will move over the Gulf Of Thailand and may well make it into the North Indian Ocean's Bay Of Bengal, where there is a small chance of regeneration. However, tropical depression 30W, that did the same last week, has struggled to re-organise, and remnants of this system crossed the Bay Of Bengal with little redevelopment, and are still sat off the coast of Eastern India below tropical cyclone strength.