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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Latest from Gibby

 

 The air at sea level will warm surface air sufficiently for this and also given that we are still only in mid November we could of done with these synoptics in January and February rather than now as I feel there is a good chance that they could be wasted on delivering rain and sleet rather than what many want.

 

http://www.thebeachguide.co.uk/sea-temperature

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

Is that a winter write off from Gibby?

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

well ive had a big look though all the models today and the worst jma and incredibly the gfs the best the ukmo is one of the longest to deliver colder air as gfs ecm navgem all indicated colder air moving across the uk a good 24 to 36 hrs sooner than the ukmo, but nearly all have reload situation but ironically there is very little cold to our east but as has been suggested it cool very quick this time of year in Europe.

 

and with ever increasing low heights even into fi into Europe I see little for concern in regards to colder outlook but as indicated by others its a little early and we need to see plenty of colder uppers build if you want wintry weather across the country.

 

but regardless to this northern England and Scotland have a very early start with polar arctic air with snow at lower levels at time so great for the ski season up there, the genral trend is to become settled across the rest of the uk with sharp frost and fog but settled.

 

its a good start I really think any heights around greeland is a very tall order not just into fi but through much of this winter if not all.

I think mid alantic and scandi uk heights will be the most dominant feature ok so the models have thrown up the ideas but in all honesty there really has not been a true Greenland high since 09/10 of coarse this don't mean it wont be cold it just means the rollercoaster this year could well be bumpy with most likely near misses.

 

scandi heights are perhaps a better focus this winter.

 

but overall the models are in agreement of colder air invading the uk and its early days but possibly sticking around for awhile so good start.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

Am I completely wrong or did the GFS used to update at 9:30am?? Sorry, I only visit here for the winter and can't find where it used to tell you the chart update times as the site has changed since last year. Nice change btw Netweather.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Am I completely wrong or did the GFS used to update at 9:30am?? Sorry, I only visit here for the winter and can't find where it used to tell you the chart update times as the site has changed since last year. Nice change btw Netweather.

 

06z is rolling out right now.

 

Edit: Update times are here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Am I completely wrong or did the GFS used to update at 9:30am?? Sorry, I only visit here for the winter and can't find where it used to tell you the chart update times as the site has changed since last year. Nice change btw Netweather.

 

Model update times are here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

 

Is that a winter write off from Gibby? BFTP

More a note of caution I'd say to those expecting synoptics of this type t deliver what they would in Jan and Feb, without any reference to how their appearance now affects the chance of them reoccurring then
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

You have to love the GFS! from zero to hero on its 00hrs and the ECM goes from hero to a bit blah, that shortwave in the Atlantic has turned up determined to steal the show as the models all handle this differently, yesterdays ECM phased this with the low exiting ne Canada, today it sort of hangs around and then another appears as the pattern flattens out upstream.

Even if the ECM is a bit underwhelming past 168hrs it still keeps the northern Italy low and with that slack pattern over the UK it could still be cold with fog and frost.

So we're really no further forward in knowing what happens after the initial cold plunge and yet again we're down to watching what happens in the eastern USA.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

You have to love the GFS! from zero to hero on its 00hrs and the ECM goes from hero to a bit blah, that shortwave in the Atlantic has turned up determined to steal the show as the models all handle this differently, yesterdays ECM phased this with the low exiting ne Canada, today it sort of hangs around and then another appears as the pattern flattens out upstream.

Even if the ECM is a bit underwhelming past 168hrs it still keeps the northern Italy low and with that slack pattern over the UK it could still be cold with fog and frost.

So we're really no further forward in knowing what happens after the initial cold plunge and yet again we're down to watching what happens in the eastern USA.

Think those of us who've been around for a time knew this was never going to be a given Nick, in fact the only given was the fact a shortwave would turn up at some stage....that's always a givenPosted Image Without decent heights to the north any reload was always looking iffy, but as you say the Med low and the consequent likelihood of rising pressure across the UK should at least keep it cold at the surface.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Think those of us who've been around for a time knew this was never going to be a given Nick, in fact the only given was the fact a shortwave would turn up at some stage....that's always a givenPosted Image Without decent heights to the north any reload was always looking iffy, but as you say the Med low and the consequent likelihood of rising pressure across the UK should at least keep it cold at the surface.

Theres still a huge spread on the ECM ensembles across Greenland in terms of 850's at 168hrs onwards so theres still a cluster of solutions that have high pressure further north. I don't think we're going to see a quick route to a Greenland high, the uncertainty more in relation to how far into Greenland low pressure gets, and how much pressure that puts on high pressure near the UK.

Crucial timeframe now coming up on the GFS 06hrs run, that shortwave in the western Atlantic, we want the amplified wave moving out of the eastern USA to phase with this as quickly as possible, the 00hrs looked a bit dubious in how it starts to phase this then ejects it under the high.

The safer route is that quick phasing and the pattern remaining amplified, the ECM flattened this out too quickly at that crucial timeframe.

Edited by nick sussex
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Think those of us who've been around for a time knew this was never going to be a given Nick, in fact the only given was the fact a shortwave would turn up at some stage....that's always a givenPosted Image Without decent heights to the north any reload was always looking iffy, but as you say the Med low and the consequent likelihood of rising pressure across the UK should at least keep it cold at the surface.

 The only given i think most members saw was a mid Atlantic ridge and a  brief ish North or north westerly setting up?To my eye this still looks 'on' this morning.

The models are still toying with what happens after that.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Theres still a huge spread on the ECM ensembles across Greenland in terms of 850's at 168hrs onwards so theres still a cluster of solutions that have high pressure further north. I don't think we're going to see a quick route to a Greenland high, the uncertainty more in relation to how far into Greenland low pressure gets, and how much pressure that puts on high pressure near the UK.

Indeed....I know we will again hear the normal GFS rubbish and GFS 06 super rubbish, but it will be interesting to see if this run picks up the ECM shortwave and if so just how it handles it.  Personally I'm always wary of high heights depicted over Greeny on any model past 144hrs. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 6 z heading for an epic run...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Well the GFS 06hrs run is if anything even more amplified over the ne USA which is nice to see. We get phasing and also another dig south of energy in the western Atlantic.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

So far..so very good from the Gfs 06z op run, very nice alignment, the uk is in the bullseye of that frigid arctic air digging south during monday, scotland turns cold by monday pm, cold front and residual rain clearing the southeast, snow showers into the north and west spreading south and east, frosts becoming widespread and sharp, especially across the snow fields in the north and on hills.Posted Image

post-4783-0-59291000-1384424135_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-44414900-1384424146_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-86605800-1384424156_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-42836100-1384424169_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-14386100-1384424180_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-96644300-1384424190_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-11972300-1384424265.gif

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111406/gfsnh-0-138.png?6

 

Well the GFS is finally there- dragged kicking & screaming- ironically finally it arrives on the 06z, however its been working towards this since 00z Tues night-

 

Also the ECM- 1 misplaced run in the last 7 days we can forgive it for that-

 

all in all a cracking 24 hours-

 

could be a 06z COBRA run- theres a sentence you don't see very often!

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Dear lord the 06z gfs is better than the 00z!!to be fair ecm was good upto 144 hours and similar to the other models. I personally feel it was wrong after 144 hours and we will see a better run from the ecm this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

06Z GFS looks quite look at T144. Close to being great.

 

Posted Image

Agreed a really good run so far, as long as that energy cuts off the high to the north then it looks very nice for coldies.
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Can hardly await 12z,cross...

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

naefs at the end of the month continues to play with high heights iceland area on the spreads whilst the anomolys are very weak.

Do we want to see this from NYC?

 

 

no - he's talking about the orientation of the trough off the eastern seaboard

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

Do we want to see this from NYC?

Posted Image

 

I think my eyes have fallen out!! That looks LUSH!!!!!

 

6z is doing VERY WELL synoptically. Lets wait and see what the rest of the un brings. The only downside is the uppers are at -4 but thats just me being picky hehe!!!

 

As we were :p:D

 

(Winter forecast coming from myself soon) :)

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