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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >


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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 6 z could deliver some reasonable accumulate midlands norhward, although most likely for higher ground with sleet/wet snow mix, for more lower locations, However have hunch this may change on time nearing...*awaits 12z*....

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

OMG!!! Persistant heavy snow moving east to westPosted Image

 

post-18134-0-47195800-1384425393_thumb.p

 

 

Well for a time anyway .

Edited by bryan629
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LOLOL

 

taken for the 00z

 

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC_05Grad/192_24.gif

GFS snow depth.

you and I have had and probably will again have our differences. However Steve, credit where its due, your recent explanations on why you feel the GFS is behind ECMWF have been, in my view, a very good explanation for newcomers of what/why and where-thanks for this.

 

Many thanks John - 

Thanks for that.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Do we want to see this from NYC?

Posted Image

I was talking more about the jet stream but I'm sure the coldies in here wouldn't mind seeing those scenes on their high street!

That shortwave is troublesome and so its crucial the pattern remains amplified around the time that eastern USA low moves out into the Atlantic. Overall given what the outputs showed last week we should be pretty happy that we've at least sign a chance of some festive weather. I'm particularly happy as this pattern looks to deliver heaps of snow to the Pyrenees.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Is that a winter write off from Gibby?

 

BFTP

 

BFTP=PLEASE read what he posted rather than getting the wrong end of the stick. He is not writing off winter but merely commenting that sleet rather than snow is likely for low lying areas whereas if in January or February similar synoptics would be more likely to give snow, or am I off my trolley? If you are just making a 'funny' then best you do this in the other thread please Fred?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Looking more likely from recent/ current modelling, that the real cold snow chances, are awaits a little further down the line...good stuff overall!!!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

well well gfs 6z not a classic sausage heights but north of the uk Iceland into scandi and look at the low heights popping up all over Europe fantasic before this even started to show people were suggesting we needed lower heights in Europe as part of the winter wonderland scenario and this bit is now in place.

 

im really trying to control my excitement ok so its still marginal for us lot down here but we got to start somewhere so why not early winter classic 2013 march cold spell now early winter could it be fantastic.

 

ok so not that cold in Europe yet but even this looks to change I think Iceland scandi ridge could well be the end product but also a uk high pressure cell but hey like I said start somewhere even with a uk high we get cold frosty nights and beautiful winter days better than soggy mild bacteria growing muck lol.

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

And by FI we in a Scandi high! Fab GFS, you took your time but you got there!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Happy days are here again, Gfs 06z op run shows a much colder spell next week with frost, ice and snow, the details will change as the gfs and other models are still a work in progress but this is a very good starting point, it will feel like winter has arrived next week and the hitherto turgid autumn will be a distant memory.Posted Image Posted Image

post-4783-0-06734100-1384425955_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-39098200-1384425966_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-23327700-1384426018_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-22743300-1384426027_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-67221500-1384426035_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-72227100-1384426051_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-97874500-1384426067_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-21832600-1384426087_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-67743500-1384426100_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

just a quickie - in winter's past, the ecm op has a tendancy to over amplify around greenland and again to our north.  we are now in our first winter after an upgrade. wonder if this has been adressed ??

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

This chart if came to reality would be so annoying .... High pressure in the perfect place , but Low pressure in the wrong place mixing all the Cold air out . 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Superb run for cold from the 06 GFS, but perhaps worth remembering what cannon fodder it is....well usuallyPosted Image

 

Certainly shades of late Nov 05 about the charts come the middle of next week, so IF GFS verifies I'd think most people will see at least a bit of the white stuff at some stage, it's just a shame these synoptics are not for the last 3rd of Dec.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Well the GFS is a pretty strong run with cold / very cold all the way out to day 16 ( from day 6) -

Even with a 1050 Scandi block thrown in & retrograde to Greenland at 384 -

 

However the 06z is likely to be to far East - as its always to far east with the energy..

 

Anyway rather than over analyse it- its decent eye candy so who cares-

 

bouts of heavy snow stalled over the UK at 360 on this run..

 

FUN !S

Couldnt agree more Steve...Battleground Britain...bring it on .

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

indeed a scandi high its something that has been regular feature for a fair few years 09/10 winter was exceptional so I for one will always put scandi as a more likely area.

 

ok its not always ideal but certainly has delivered over the years.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

yes steve m we had this type of mayhem last winter that was fairly early on aswell just goes to show how complex things really are, but sod it we do like a ramp as long as its not of dover cliffs with no breaks lol

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

A pretty fantastic chart from CFS for the end of the month

Posted Image

Particularly good for the north if that were to verify.

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The models really seem to be really cranking up the split flow today- remember they are rapidly ( moreso the GFS) going from 1 solution to another-

fortunately that solution as it evolves shows more & more amplitude of the ridge over Greenland- net this will serve us well as we move though time...

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013111406/navgemnh-0-144.png?14-11

The NAVGEM just updated seems the best run so far out to 144- its the most split flow I have seen thus far- almost worth a boom!

 

S

 

* Also I don't think many have mentioned - the propensity of the wave of the arctic from over by the Russian side to start to spread its tenticles towards our side of the pole-  That's always modelled badly but when it comes into view it quickly supports the split vortex...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Certainly some interesting charts appearing at the moment as SM said above as we've moved closer to the timeframe the charts are getting progressively better from a cold perspective, a complicated issue though yet to be resolved so excitement should be filtered a little.

I can't help but be slightly irritated that these charts are occurring now and not in December/January when there's some colder air to tap into, you can guarantee we'll probably be stuck with a Bartlett when Europe are deep in the freezer and -15 air is just across the North Sea, still good to see all the same :)

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