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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows once we have had the initial strong thrust of arctic cold digging south, it continues cold even when we lose the coldest uppers, we retain surface cold, indeed, there is no sign of a return to mild weather, once it becomes cold, it stays cold so the areas which get a snow cover next week are likely to keep it for a while, and have the sharpest frosts, indeed, the way I see the latest mean, there is a chance of a reload of cold from the northeast eventually. I think we are going to enter a cycle of cold reloads from the nw / n /ne separated by brief settled, frosty interludes.Posted Image

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post-4783-0-76465400-1384429427_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: snow or stormy...colder the better
  • Location: Mid Norfolk

138 and 144 look impressive lol [well 108 onwards] and within a reasonable time frame??

Edited by BeastFromTheEast
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

 

an example of what MIGHT happen, and worth those commenting about warmth over Europe to see what is possible-remember possible, but it is only 3 years since Nov-Dec 2010!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Perturbation 1..GEFS 06z would have all coldies dancing for joy next week, it would turn into a snow fest with a few ice days for good measure and bitterly cold nights.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Quite staggering via GEFS,you have to begin to think we COULD be leaning toward something rather special!!!???

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

Quite staggering via GEFS,you have to begin to think we COULD be leaning toward something rather special!!!???

Please calm down. Lots of models to look at yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland

Kind of hoping the gefs is miles out just so madden doesnt get a knighthood.

If it does come off 2010 will seem like a dusting although not much chance.

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

Just saw this on Twitter...thought I would put it on here Posted Image

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Edited by Snowmadsam
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Cracking wintry output at the moment. Fingers crossed the 0z ECM op was an outlier and the 12z comes back on board.

Frosty, your dancing man is going to need a coat, hat and scarf!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Quite staggering via GEFS,you have to begin to think we COULD be leaning toward something rather special!!!???

 

Whoa ! This is the GFS and moreover the GFS 06Z that we are talking about. Interesting to see if something can be sustained though as my interpretation of the Strat boys thread is that we should be looking at zonality returning.

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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

Quite staggering via GEFS,you have to begin to think we COULD be leaning toward something rather special!!!???

I've been following the model output on Netweather for a good few years now and believe me, the times when we could be leaning towards something special vastly outnumber the times when we actually get something special!All part of the fun though - as long as we don't get too miserable when things don't happen to go the way we want.Some distinctly chilly looking output and some excellent posts to enjoy today, let's hope that continues.
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Surely the upper air (T850 temps) are an issue here? With the continent so warm at present and most ensembles show within a reliable'ish timeframe the high orientating itself in a way that cuts off the cold air. I'll admit I'm not an expert but I have been watching the models for a long time and the Synoptics starting to shape up look fantastic no doubt about it but the lack of cold air concerns me

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The GFS ensemble shows 3 days of 850's below zero after this we see a gradual recovery in temperatures to see out the month, today's met office update also talks of it turning "less cold" later next week

 

Tuesday to Thursday looks the coldest period at this stage though this could change over the next few days

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The end of next week and going to the end of November see's temperatures slowly starting to recover, with the 850's slowly recovering back to positive territory, widespread frosts will become more common over the next few weeks as well providing winds fall light 

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Surely the upper air (T850 temps) are an issue here? With the continent so warm at present and most ensembles show within a reliable'ish timeframe the high orientating itself in a way that cuts off the cold air. I'll admit I'm not an expert but I have been watching the models for a long time and the Synoptics starting to shape up look fantastic no doubt about it but the lack of cold air concerns me

 

This always happens.

 

In these set ups the air usually gets colder the closer you get to the event.

 

Lets just hope we get upgrades and not too many downs!

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted this in the winter discussion on the 8th of Nov.  I know we should't point score, but just wanted to blow (softly toot) my own trumpet for getting something (guessing) right.
Unfortunately, can't show you the images as I only linked them and I can't be bothered rummaging for them. Pretty sure they were on the 06Z and 00z runs going by time of post.
 

Here's a FI chart that could be interesting..... (I know I know lol, but it's just a bit of 'hope-casting')

 

Notice the elongated HP in the atlantic stretching to Canada. 

 

 

Here it is on the previous run.

 

I could be wrong, but, could be the kind of setup to see HP slide into a favorable position for us in a few weeks time....

 

 

:insertemoticonplayingtrumpethere:

 

Back to todays discussion. I see the GFS has the atlantic LP back in its output today. Really want to see that go up the west side of Greenland IMO if we are to see sustained cold towards the end of the month. Any HP to our NE could come under heavy attack from the west and prevent a sustained incursion and keep the HP just off to our east. I know the Low Res run is FI but we could end up disappointed at the start of Dec.  The winning ticket would be to be under the "battle zone" of the two fronts but as was the case so often last year..... so near, yet so far.

 

In the mean time, I reckon the vast majority of the UK will have some decent wintry weather next week. -8 uppers stretching to N.England and the chance for a decent amount of snow across the UK (northern uk more so).Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

The GFS ensemble shows 3 days of 850's below zero after this we see a gradual recovery in temperatures to see out the month, today's met office update also talks of it turning "less cold" later next week

 

Tuesday to Thursday looks the coldest period at this stage though this could change over the next few days

 

 

But you've just shown 7 days  with 850s below zero (8 for 95% of the UK).

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Whoa ! This is the GFS and moreover the GFS 06Z that we are talking about. Interesting to see if something can be sustained though as my interpretation of the Strat boys thread is that we should be looking at zonality returning.

...although fairly new to netweather forum, I'm certainly not green when it comes to meteorological,nor cross model views!!!! Regards.
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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Please let there be snow for Devon next week Posted Image  The GEFS had snow for us on the 00z but seems to have dissapeared a little on the 06z (I'm learning so I hope I said that right)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Along with Scotland some southern parts could see temperatures struggling to get above zero next week for a time, though the south west keeps temps around 7 to 9c on Tuesday before taking a tumble on Wednesday

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

First snow of the season for some in the south is possible on Wednesday

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image


Please let there be snow for Devon next week Posted Image  The GEFS had snow for us on the 00z but seems to have dissapeared a little on the 06z (I'm learning so I hope I said that right)

 

What part of Devon are you in? as snow is still on show for parts of Devon

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

IBTH, you were too slow!  the express had already left the platform by the 8th. granted that there werent too many aboard but the extended ens had been singing this song for a few days by then,

 

if the 12z gefs are in the same ballpark as the 06z ones then there will be some very happy coldies from a late month/early dec cold period perspective.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

i think i'm going to wait until i've seen the ECM 12z and check it was having a rare blip before jumping on the suddenly very fast and uncontrollable "the GFS and all it's cold perturbations are correct" roller coaster. 

 

Talk of ice days and 2010 repeats are premature i think. Ice days are basically (and i don't know why) the holy grail on here and are hard enough to achieve in January let alone November. 

 

Colder early next week for a time at least. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

Summer Sun check the charts that you are posting! These are from the previous run the 00z. If you check again the snow has gone from the south on the 06z. 

 

He did post the 0z Charts but there is still some snow in the SW on the 6z

 

Posted Image

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