South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13

[Snowangel-MK]

Please continue your regional discussions here about your current conditions and the wintry weather that's forecast...

 

 

 

link to the previous one here....

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78372-south-east-east-anglia-regional-weather-discussion-041113/page-40#entry2834323

Edited November 14, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Mark Neal.]

96hr fax chart. Troughs in a northerly flow, not overly exciting for is guys however 528 dam well clearing south coast. Troughs around.

[john pike]

hi all

 

tonight

 

cold brrrrrrrrrrr

 

and dry

 

watch for mist and fog in the morning

 

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tomorrow

 

a north easterly flow

 

could get a tad blowy in the afternoon

 

looks chilly around 8-10 degrees

 

dry and some sun but cloudy the further north you are

 

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tomorrow night

 

a very weak westerly flow

 

expect fog to become an issue in rural areas around milton keyne areas

 

temps

 

around 8 degrees

 

rainfall

 

none

 

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saturday

 

a weak westerly flow

 

temps

 

around 10-12 degrees

 

cor a heatwave

 

rainfall

 

 

looks dry again with some light rain heading in very late pm

 

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thanks mk

 

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saturday night

 

 

a colder north to north westerly flow

 

temps

 

around 8 degrees

 

but cooling off overnight towards rush hour

 

expect some dense fog in places

 

rainfall

 

drizzly mush then clearing towards rush hour

 

thats when temps will drop

 

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sunday

 

a weak flow and variable but mainly westerly

 

temps

 

around 8-10 degrees

 

rainfall

 

mainly dry but some heavy showers late afternoon

 

after the rain clears expect temps to drop

 

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monday

 

a north westerly flow and a cold one

 

temps

 

 

around 8-10 degrees

 

rainfall

 

 

could be quite a wet day due to the slow moving front showing on the fax

 

at present ecm and fax match

 

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tuesday

 

a cold northerly flow

 

temps

 

 

around 5-6 degrees

 

rainfall

 

 

there could be some very heavy rain mixed in today and possibly thundery

 

mixed up air and troughs on the fax chart

 

nice

 

ecm still matches the fax chart

 

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not going any further for now but heres the 00 chart for wednesday morning

 

 

a bitter north to north west flow

 

-10 uppers

 

see temps around -5 ish overnight

 

rainfall

 

 

precipitation about

 

maybe ----  not going to say it yet

 

overall looking very interesting now

[alexisj9]

96hr fax chart. Troughs in a northerly flow, not overly exciting for is guys however 528 dam well clearing south coast. Troughs around.

Seen this sort of set up before, the last time thunder snow found it's way over to London from that corner between wales and england. Not saying that will happen this time mind.

[john pike]

 

ukmo fax charts

 

a strong north east flow

 

very low dam air

 

low pressure nearby

 

that could be fun

[Mark Neal.]

Got a feeling there will be surprises next week embedded troughs in the flow and disturbances can spring out of no-where. Wintry precipitation could happen if this far south, evaporative cooling can play a key part aswell!

[Sussex Jules]

Hi John

 

Are the fax charts similar to the UKMO output of this afternoon or are they more a la ECM? I'm sitting here trying to work it out but I have man flu at the moment and it all looks far too complicated to my eyes

[john pike]

hi mark

 

tuesday late pm looks like the fun starts and the much colder air arrives

 

i would call snow showers on wednesday but just a tad too far out for now

 

this is where the fax charts become more fun to work out

hi jules

 

ukmo and fax and ecm all looking the same up to 144

 

no point looking past that whatever model you use

 

unless for ramping purposes

[Captain Shortwave]

I humbly apologise for stealing John's ramp earlier, luckily the GFS control for the pub run is throwing something special 

[Mark Neal.]

I humbly apologise for stealing John's ramp earlier, luckily the GFS control for the pub run is throwing something special

I look forward to some ensemble ramping soon then

[john pike]

hi captain

 

[Andy H]

John, I know this has been said plenty of times, but really enjoy your posts, easy to read, you never go to far out in to FI, and although you are a cold lover, you say it as you see it

The south east thread are lucky to have you and of course Steve Murr on our thread, keep up the good work

[Sussex Jules]

Thanks John.

 

I had a punt earlier in the week that we would see a little bit of white stuff on Tuesday not much just a taster. Plenty of output to digest at the moment and watching the ups and downs in the MAD thread today has certainly provided entertainment. Whatever happens at least we have got rid of that mild mush coming in from the Atlantic long may it continue as far as I'm concerned.

 

Oh by the way John ramp away

[john pike]

thanks andy

 

hi jules

 

ok you twisted my arm

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=322&y=148&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

brrrrrrrrrrr

[john pike]

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

brrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

vaguely agrees except after the 23rd it goes loopy

 

wind

 

 

nothing of note there at present

 

rain

 

jump 18th and 22nd

 

but lots of scatter after the 21st so unreliable after that

 

 

gfs 18z

 

 

big scatter 22nd onwards

 

a bit warmer to the 19th

 

then cold

 

shows dry to the 18th then pretty wet

 

i think i will stay on fax patrol for now

 

john

[Jason T]

  Yes I know could be sleet, Nahhhh SNOW.

 

WOW,This early in the year.......................................................Bring it ON.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN7LW0Y00kE

 

        

[Team Jo]

Ooh!

I've put an extra blanket on the bed already. Picked OH from work an hour ago and it was cold - station reading 3c

Definitely an interesting few days of watching coming up, looking forward to the mayhem!

[john pike]

good luck jo

[Jason T]

Good night all, Speak tomorrow eves when............Further upgrades and detail hopefully appear, This could be a cold lovers (Dream) Winter, charts like these are very rare. Enjoy....  

[john pike]

goodnight jason

 

think i will cut off a tad earlier tonight

 

goodnight all

[Bluebreezer54]

Hi John

 

Are the fax charts similar to the UKMO output of this afternoon or are they more a la ECM? I'm sitting here trying to work it out but I have man flu at the moment and it all looks far too complicated to my eyes.

 

Aha.... confirmation at last that there IS such a thing as man flu, get well soon Jules.

 

It's a bit nippy this morning but still above zero in these parts, 3.8c to be precise. I can't say I am liking the forecasts for next week in our region, it seems as though we will just be stuck with some horribly cold temperatures and very little else of note. Have a good day folks.

[Mark Neal.]

A chilly morning here, clear skies and light winds and we have a grass frost again . Have a good friday!

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning. Chilly but no frost here, had showers on a off throughout the night I believe.

Things are going to get a bit hairy from here. Models are struggling and options of prolonged cold to diddly squat are popping up.