Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Panayiotis]

GFS sticking to its guns really ramping up the jet coming off the Eastern seaboard,little or zero chance of anyblocking at high latitudes if this model is correct for the forseeable.

The METO update is a bit of a setback after viewing the ECM this morning.

Odds IMO are now stacked against the ECM solutiuon and im reluctantly expecting a climb down this evening.

The strat thread is giving grounds for cautious optimism though so still a lot of uncertainty moving forwards.

Youre commenting before the UKMO and ECM are out! You are living on the edge!

[Tom Jarvis]

hmm interesting from the GFS big high to our west and pv just above the uk will the high go north and the PV go south??

 

northerly incoming In FI

Edited November 18, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[IDO]

GFS 12z tries to build a HLB but the lower heights to our north flattens the ridge; as per previous runs, consistent development of a MLB with cold uppers in a slack flow; little snow. T180:

[garbagebags]

How would a low pressure system (storm) heading towards Greenland help blocking? Surely low pressure is the last thing you want in the Atlantic, southern Greenland?

[Purga]

more waa into greenland reinforcing the northern blocking!!maybe even a full on greenland high!!

 

Hmm... a very shaky assumption there Shaky!

[Yarmy]

GFS 12z tries to build a HLB but the lower heights to our north flattens the ridge; as per previous runs, consistent development of a MLB with cold uppers in a slack flow; little snow. T180:

gfs-1-180 (2).pnggfs-0-180 (1).png

 

Yes, it all looks a bit rinse and repeat. Cool/cold throughout, if uneventful.

[Matty M]

No more UKMO data on meteociel for time being big loss for us

[radiohead]

Just noticed this on the Meteociel UKMO page.

 

 

 

Big change in UKMO data files. Charts will not be available anymore until further notice. Sorry for the inconveniance.

 

 

[Tom Jarvis]

here it comes

[shaky]

Hmm... a very shaky assumption there Shaky!

lol!!or it could bring the vortex back to life. Hows that purga??cos to be fair theres a higher chance of that happening than a greenland high

[zubzero]

No more UKMO data on meteociel for time being big loss for us

Yes  I hope other site's are not affected to.

[Purga]

here it comes

Here comes what?

The slow slide SE into Bartlett?

[Mucka]

NAVGEM backing down?

 

 

Edit:

 

Maybe not because there seems to be some undercut but definitely less amplified out to to 84h

Edited November 18, 2013 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

frikkin hell thats ecm and ukmo now!!talk about good timing

 

whats wrong with ecm ?   even if there were a transmission data issue with ecm output, we can find the run on its website. meto.gov.uk doesnt show its GM run.

[Methuselah]

Come on folks - let's all behave...A MEOT (Mass Ejection of Toys) will not be welcome...It's getting colder and some parts will see some snow. Don't spoil it, eh? 

[Summer Sun]

Just noticed this on the Meteociel UKMO page.

 

Maybe Ian could give us some more info on this if he knows anything.

 

Hopefully the removal of UKMO is only affecting meteociel and wetterzentral will continue to update as normal

[shaky]

whats wrong with ecm ? even if there were a transmission data issue with ecm output, we can find the run on its website. meto.gov.uk doesnt show its GM run.

what time is the ecm going through the data change?

[PolarWarsaw]

I can't help but feel anything other than a frosty but ultimately dry and quiet period is coming up before a return to something at least 'a little' wetter occurs. Whenever a model picks up a trend, the other seem to just veer in the opposite direction from it - that's both from a cold and milder solution point of view as well. I think it was SK who pointed out that his overall keyword for this winter season was 'patience' and I can't help but feel that's what is going to be required. I am absolutely not writing anything off or putting eggs in baskets, but I do feel kind of 'immune' to the next couple of weeks being anything but chilly and dry. 

[MR EXTREMES]

ukmo link please grrr no longer available on the meteociel site ??

[Yarmy]

That's a disgrace taking off the charts! I bet the net office etc can still see them!!Are we going to ever get these back??!! Not happy about this one bit!

 

It's just a technical issue, I think. Been a bit hit and miss for a few days and Sylvain (Mr Meteociel) said there were problems.

[Tom Jarvis]

Here comes what?

The slow slide SE into Bartlett?

this

[Mucka]

NAVGEM 108

 

 

Still much better than GFS but not as good as earlier runs.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Mucka

[lorenzo]

GFS ramps things up at 168 hrs, formidable jet streak exiting  US.

 

 

Then the modelling gets very messy around the Greenland and on to Iceland, this was also evident also on last nights pub run.

 

Looking at the bias in this area there is a clear lowering of heights.

 

00z then 12z - 00z further west then 12z pushing the tendency to lower heights all the way east. I know there has been much debate around this, the shaded areas below detail this well.

 

 

Looking into the depths of FI, a huge chart at 240. Wonder what other options will lie in the ensembles at this timeframe.

Edited November 18, 2013 by lorenzo

[bluearmy]

what time is the ecm going through the data change?

 

can we calm down a little bit ?  ecm is upgrading its ens run as of noon tomorrow.  you wont notice any difference to anything.  it seems that ukmo have changed the format of their data files. whether that impacts upon our ability to see the run is too early to know but i suspect the T120 FAX may be all we see of today's 12z run where it matters.

[IDO]

FWIW GFS OP a lot better in FI with a GH from T216:

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