Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

what time is the ecm going through the data change?

 

12:00 UTC today to 12:00 UTC tomorrow, the 12z run tomorrow will be the first since the upgrade, though tonight's run should be out as normal along with the 00z

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

I realise some people are already shouting "backtrack" and "climbdown" but going through the entire GFS Op run even into the furthest recesses of FI, the one thing it isn't is zonal - there are no long fetch SW'lies, heights aren't bad to the NW overall.

 

The PV is shredded by the huge storm and taken off into Siberia.

 

It's a long way from the worst output I've ever seen.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

It's not looking good for the ECMs outlook, GFS defo not following it. Backtrack towards GFS no doubt happen soon.

Have you ever looked at the model verification statistics for the GFS v the ECM data? Based on that and experience, I would suspect that the GFS more often than not will follow the ECM evolution and not the other way round.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

12:00 UTC today to 12:00 UTC tomorrow, the 12z run tomorrow will be the first since the upgrade, though tonight's run should be out as normal along with the 00z

 

and its only the ens, not the op. seeing as most of you only get hung up on the op, theer isnt really anything to concern us.

 

re ukmo - if it just a data transfer issue, then i wonder if ian would be able to get us snapshots of the run later.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Chriw fawkes indicates on twitter, quote, a cold plunge expected first half of December, its so confusing what will happen in early December this year so many mixed signals from the models and forecasters. They must be having a real nightmare pinning down the path of Mellisa lets hope for the answers soon. Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

er no it isnt unless you're in scotland or on a hill.  (if you are just talking about wintry showers then its a pointless discussion anyway)

 

 

Speaking of discussion, there is a handy thread for Ramping, moaning, pointlessly discussing Models here....

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/page-94#entry2838382

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Spot the trend.

 

NAVGEM 00z/06z/12z

 

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I realise some people are already shouting "backtrack" and "climbdown" but going through the entire GFS Op run even into the furthest recesses of FI, the one thing it isn't is zonal - there are no long fetch SW'lies, heights aren't bad to the NW overall.

 

The PV is shredded by the huge storm and taken off into Siberia.

 

It's a long way from the worst output I've ever seen.

Ranks up there on the insane scale though Posted Image

GFS is fundamentally different to the day 4 chart from this mornings ECM

Posted Image

ECM

Posted Image

Surely we are within the point of where the GFS could be very wrong here, on the other hand you would back the ECM at this time frame to near enough be spot on. Who knows, I for one will be watching the ECM very nervously.

As Mucka's post above shows, look how the orientation of the ridging has moved from the ECM like solution this morning to something similar (but still better) than the GFS. Could be another brief northerly from at around day 6, similar to what we are about to experience with the high continuously orientating around in response to pressure from the north west and the north east as the same low drops into the Scandinavia region.

One last thing, which might be overly negative here. From my experience there has been one type of situation where the GFS has trumped the Euros on set ups like these. This is when there is a tropical depression in the mix. You only have to go back to September to see the effects Humberto had with the Euros flipping from a cool zonal outlook to a warm anticyclonic one.

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Spot the trend.

 

NAVGEM 00z/06z/12z

 

NAVGEM is a poor model though. It's stats are consistently lower than GFS/ECM/UKMO. I see the trend there, but at the same time it's not a model I take too seriously.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Lorenzo im not sure im trying to understand your post very complicated can you please explain ?

thank you

I don't think it matters what the best model is all that matters is they all have a trend its working out which one is correct to be honest any one of them could be correct but the highs are certainly showing increase strength.

Edited by model rollercoaster
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

"NAVGEM is a poor model though. It's stats are consistently lower than GFS/ECM/UKMO. I see the trend there, but at the same time it's not a model I take too seriously."

 

It may be poor but it was the only model that was truly supporting the ECM and it is all about trends not single runs.

 

If ECM pulls a stonker out tonight I will be surprised but then it wouldn't be the first time...

 

Anyway here is NAVGEM complete, lots of frost and fog I would imagine but certainly blocked.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAVGEM is a poor model though. It's stats are consistently lower than GFS/ECM/UKMO. I see the trend there, but at the same time it's not a model I take too seriously.

Agreed,but the fact that it now moving away from the exciting ECM solution in tandem with the mediocre meto update and the GFS is pretty revealing to my mind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

I would normally bin FI... but every now and again GFS picks up on something at long range that fits other signals. Looking again to tie strat forecasts into this, the image at 13 days out is a good match and something perhaps to get excited about. I'm going to keep an eye on Dec 1 over the coming runs.

 

Posted Image

 

 

In the more reliable timeframe GFS sees the storm brewing in the atlantic as too strong to be held back, but the return to mobility that it brings is very short lived indeed.

 

All indications are still good for a cool to cold spell lasting into December though I repeat for the umpteenth time that I dont see much lowland snow coming out of it in November. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Big change in UKMO data files. Charts will not be available anymore until further notice. Sorry for the inconveniance.

 

I see Ian you just posted a comment regarding the NAVGEM could you enlighten us on what has occurred to the UKMO?

Edited by Panayiotis
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well the plot thickens, GEM looks similar to this mornings ECM so far, should be a good run (perhaps Posted Image )

Posted Image

Alas, it seems like all routes to UK high

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

No-Added-Value-Generallyor-Ever-Meteorologically, as a UKMO colleague once put it...!

 

seeing as you are around ian, is the absence of the ukmo gm deliberate ?  i cant see the 00z run on places like meteocentre so wonder if its just a data transfer issue ?

 

and low res gfs is hilarious with that asian super depression.

 

as for lorenzo's post, he was illustrating the bias of the last 6 days gfs forecasts to lower heights in the atlantic.  IF ecm looks the same again tonight, the general solution will be right.  remember the trough disruption earlier in the year. the ecm op was alone but the ecm op was bang on.  ecm op doesnt do three consec wrong solutions.

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

No-Added-Value-Generallyor-Ever-Meteorologically, as a UKMO colleague once put it...!

Ian, any insight you can offer us  about the 12z UKMO GM run out to 144 in terms of whats happening just to our North-West? Us poor non-Met Office/BBC types have lost access for now *cue worlds smallest violin*

 

Cheers

SK

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

If next week does become dominated by a gentle NE drift, it may be a lot colder than the 850s suggest. I recall a November about 20 years ago where a similar set-up led to persistant fog, temps maxing at around 2C and occasional "snizzle" in central/eastern areas. For the pattern matchers: the winter that followed was nothing special, I'm afraid

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

While everybody is looking at T3000 million for the next iceberg a more interesting feature has crept under our noses. The low pressure could actually bring the first stormy weather to Northern England of the autumn. On Wednesday we could see gusts around 60 mph region. Although there's warnings for the north and west there's none for Eastern or north eastern England which looks a bit odd. Coupled with a fair snow risk there could well be blizzards on the hills of the north as well. After that it's steady quietening down period as the high settles over us.

Deep FI has a potential beast from the north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z op run is generally rather cold throughout with the uk having a good deal of anticyclonic weather with overnight frost and fog but with occasional incursions of polar air with wintry showers spreading down across the uk. The imminent arctic blast has been significantly watered down from how it looked a few days ago with temps in the south tomorrow between 5-7 celsius but the Northerly in FI is a proper arctic blast hitting the north.

post-4783-0-11584700-1384795162_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-67977000-1384795180_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-60819600-1384795193_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-04112200-1384795243_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Fantastic ,nail biting model watching with plenty to discuss and plenty of things to learn especially for any new members .iv been watching and enjoying the forum but not posted much as i feel i cant realy add much untill now .going by current output certainly cold over coming week or so , i will be concentrating on runs out to about 168 hrs max especially IF in a weeks time we finish up with a possible real cold spell [as some data is indicating ]so many synoptic possibilitys could develope once any real cold sets up ,especialy if atlantic lows from the s west get involved or a good easterly sets up ,looking forward to this evenings runs to put a bit more Bite to the outlook .and new posters dont forget those fax charts ,and always expect the unexpected and a bumpy ride .Posted Image Bring it on .

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Ian, any insight you can offer us about the 12z UKMO GM run out to 144 in terms of whats happening just to our North-West? Us poor non-Met Office/BBC types have lost access for now *cue worlds smallest violin*CheersSK

The change of GM feed seems due to a move from GRIB 1 to GRIB 2 datasets last week. It was circulated by UKMO. However I'm awaiting further info on this issue.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...