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Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Still differences in the models at T192.

GFS: post-14819-0-22423300-1384800325_thumb.p ECM: post-14819-0-59486000-1384800340_thumb.g

I am gonna hazard a guess that both are wrong and that the only certainty is a blocked Atlantic, cold air close to the UK and little precipitation.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Low pressure building over Spain, that High's going to get sucked Northeast and all it takes is a shortwave to cut off our high from the Atlantic high.

 

Yeah we need that low pressure to develop to prop up the high and tighten the isobars, get a decent feed going.

All academic now though I guess since we are in FI.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

t216 sees the high moving NE wards setting up an easterly

 

Posted Image

 

Lots of cold building out east

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Easterly

 

Posted Image

 

But not as we know it Jim. Has the UK developed its own cold pool? Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

ECM at day 9 and ideally you would like to see the HP centred a bit further North but at least ECM has been fairly consistent in the way it handles the High from T96.

 

I feel that the GFS is possibly barking up the wrong tree with its intense build of pressure to the West, but more runs needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Once again ECM and GFS are miles apart at t216 not even a hint of consistency well other than consistently different

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

ecm day 9 very similar to the ens mean and anomolys from the 00z run. the op a bit more progressive over n greenland. 

 

gav - they are both blocked and mainly dry for the bulk of the uk. the drying out from the last month or so can continue.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Nice end to the run with the easterly pretty much locked in

Posted Image

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Last four runs on the ECM at T240:

Yesterday 0z: post-14819-0-02248400-1384800892_thumb.g Yest. 12z: post-14819-0-08339900-1384800915_thumb.g

Today 0z: post-14819-0-29418400-1384800932_thumb.g 12z today: post-14819-0-84494100-1384800998_thumb.g

I am going to be disappointed if the ECM is having a laugh with its T240 charts again!

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

+240 shows the High not being able to get any further North and probably starting to sink South ... We need the low pressure to the South a little stronger , some ensembles have shown this. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm ends indeed with intrest...some fab uppers develop euro, with a developing easterly incursion...

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Nothing wrong with the ECM, it's not really a backtrack more of a variation on the ongoing them, perhaps it's just me but I really enjoy crisp dry winters days. The differences between the GFS and ECM are still pretty huge though which is a concern for long term wintery weather, if it's snow we are after that is!

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

Loving the ECM, nice easterly, with the warm North Sea we could really see some heavy snow showers.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

that cold pool has our name on it. upstream looks good with jet energy headed se to bolster the euro trough and retrogression of our block to follow. am i really dissecting a day 10 chart - shame on me !

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent

Still differences in the models at T192.

GFS: Posted Imagegfs-0-192.png ECM: Posted ImageECM1-192.gif

I am gonna hazard a guess that both are wrong and that the only certainty is a blocked Atlantic, cold air close to the UK and little precipitation.

It would be noteworthy if there weren't differences.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Interesting ECM but before everyone gets out the Xmas decorations we should bear in mind that its activated Code Red on my emergency shortwave drama scale:

 

post-1206-0-26769300-1384802003_thumb.gi

 

if this shortwave doesn't head se then the energy spills over the top and it's game over for any decent easterly. The upstream pattern is critical here you need the right phasing and amplification to force the undercut.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

I think you may be underestimating how cold it would be at the surface. -4 to -6 uppers combined with a slack flow and minimal solar heating= temps not far above freezing for some. Festive at least.

 

Yes, well said. There's a real radiation imbalance at this time of year, that chart would be dry but "wintry" in a particular kind of way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Interesting ECM but before everyone gets out the Xmas decorations we should bear in mind that its activated Code Red on my emergency shortwave drama scale:

 

Posted ImageECM1-168.gif

 

if this shortwave doesn't head se then the energy spills over the top and it's game over for any decent easterly. The upstream pattern is critical here you need the right phasing and amplification to force the undercut.

At times it feels like the models are willingly torturing us.

The ECM gets there.... just about. Frankly the day 10 chart is approaching boom standards with the Atlantic low primed to go under with pressure falling over central Europe, throwing the coldest uppers our way.

Will it be there tomorrow? I think to be honest I will just take the mindset of not being too disappointed if it gets dropped for a more UK based high tomorrow and be very happy if the ECM hangs on in there. 

Edited by Captain shortwave
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