December 2013 CET forecasts -- 2013/14 Competition

[Don]

4.7C please

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

2.8C please.

[godber]

3.3c for me please. I'm off to Reykjavik next week for three nights. Funnily enough, some of that cold air looks like heading our way late next week.

[reef]

Close to average

 

5.0C

[SomeLikeItHot]

3.8

Cold but not entrenched cold, with some mild patches.

[Mr Maunder]

4.7c for me please.

MM

[Thundery wintry showers]

5.3C- cold first half, milder spells in the second half.

[feb1991blizzard]

I agree with TWS, I am hoping the cold will hang on a little longer and be a little more potent though.

 

4.9 please,

 

Mainly because of the usual downward correction.

[Roger J Smith]

Just posting a table of entries in the contest scoring thread (there may be a new one as this is a new year as far as the competition goes). My own entry has been tweaked from 5.5 to 5.6 just to avoid duplication of an earlier forecast.

 

Looks to me like the consensus is a bit below the recent normals and more like the long-term normals. Very few went above 6 anyway.

 

 

[davehsug]

5.3c please

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi guys,

 

After considerations I would like to change my entry for December to 3.6C.

Cannot really see the mild SW returning as everything has been stuck now for about 3 weeks and the last 5 years have indicated that when this happens it tends to remain stuck for about 2 - 3months.

 

Could be a mistake but who really knows.?

 

MIA

[Relativistic]

I'm going to go in the middle of what my heart wants and what I think is realistic: 2.6C.

Thanks.

[DAVID SNOW]

Oh sod it 2.9 thank you

[J10]

4.0c hedging my bets as I think it might be milder than average and if it is I don't want to be too far out.

[TonyH]

4.0c please

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

4.1C

[Gael_Force]

3.2c please.

[Nigerian Prince]

3.5 for me will do, lets see............

[A Winter's Tale]

4.2C please

[Great Plum]

I'm a touch late, sorry!

4.1c please!

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today was probably close to 4.5C, while maxima look like reaching above 9C, so something around 7C to the first is likely.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

5.6C to the 2nd (4.2)

5.2C to the 3rd (4.5)

5.4C to the 4th (5.9)

5.2C to the 5th (4.4)

4.2C to the 6th (-1.1)

3.4C to the 7th (-1.4)

2.8C to the 8th (-1.1)

 

[Harve]

I'm normally pretty restrained when it comes to ramping, but seeing a sub-zero day possible within 5 days is a trigger to get me hyped...

[Dancerwithwings]

I'm normally pretty restrained when it comes to ramping, but seeing a sub-zero day possible within 5 days is a trigger to get me hyped...

I'll ramp with ya!...... (-1.1c) what's the chances of it staying that way

[Summer Sun]

December opens up with 5.8c which is 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[SomeLikeItHot]

December opens up with 5.8c which is 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

 0.0 anomaly (81-10)

 

Note: Strangely they list min yesterday as 2.2 and max as 8.8 so average should be 5.5 not 5.8. I expect to see at least one of these three numbers corrected at some point, below is on the basis of it being 5.8.

 

Min today of 4.2 and max likely around 9.5 should rise to 6.2 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days + GFS 0z ensemble mean after gives.

2nd 6.2 (6.7)  

3rd 5.8   (4.8 )

4th    6.6 (5.2)

5th    5.6 (5.6)

6th 5.4 (4.3)

 

10th 4.8  -0.2 (61-90) -0.5 (81-10)  

 

15th 4.9

 

17th 4.9   +0.4 (61-90) +0.4  (81-10)

 

So trending above average.

Worth noting that 81-10 average is less than 61-90 for december, due mostly to Dec 2010.

Edited December 2, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot